Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

SPX FLOW, Inc. (FLOW)

$86.49

+0.18 (+0.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 7.70 | 86.49 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,951.502,090.101,506.601,350.601,5291,460.351,394.771,332.151,272.331,215.20
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 185.90228.308.7083.10183.40114.42109.28104.3799.6895.21
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 124.70169.60-29.6042136.2071.7268.5065.4362.4959.68
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 61.2058.7038.3041.1047.2042.6940.7738.9437.1935.52
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 263.70213.30299.20441.50313.90282.71270.02257.89246.31235.25
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 439.10445270.40257271.50287.76274.84262.50250.71239.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 293.90304.80208.10199.30242.80216.40206.68197.40188.54180.07
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 219.40203.70142.60149.10173.80154.39147.46140.83134.51128.47
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -19.40-25.50-28.50-22.40-32.60-23.06-22.03-21.04-20.09-19.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 86.49
Beta 1.604
Diluted Shares Outstanding 41.96
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 44.37
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.268
Total Debt 422.10
Total Equity 3,629.03
Total Capital 4,051.13
Debt Weighting 10.42
Equity Weighting 89.58
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,951.502,090.101,506.601,350.601,5291,460.351,394.771,332.151,272.331,215.20
EBITDA 185.90228.308.7083.10183.40114.42109.28104.3799.6895.21
EBIT 124.70169.60-29.6042136.2071.7268.5065.4362.4959.68
Tax Rate 19.86%62.00%211.23%88.08%44.37%85.11%85.11%85.11%85.11%85.11%
EBIAT 99.9364.4432.925.0175.7710.6810.209.749.318.89
Depreciation 61.2058.7038.3041.1047.2042.6940.7738.9437.1935.52
Accounts Receivable --5.90174.6013.40-14.50-16.2612.9212.3411.7911.26
Inventories --10.9096.708.80-43.5026.409.729.288.868.47
Accounts Payable --15.70-61.106.5024.70-19.41-6.93-6.62-6.32-6.04
Capital Expenditure -19.40-25.50-28.50-22.40-32.60-23.06-22.03-21.04-20.09-19.19
UFCF 141.7365.14252.9252.4157.0721.0444.6542.6540.7338.90
WACC
PV UFCF 19.0736.7031.7727.5123.82
SUM PV UFCF 138.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) 39.68
Terminal Value 477.52
Present Value of Terminal Value 292.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 431.23
Net Debt 108.20
Equity Value 323.03
Shares Outstanding 41.96
Equity Value Per Share 7.70