Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. ... (FMX)

$77.22

+0.05 (+0.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 3,309.36 | 77.22 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 460,456469,744506,711492,966556,261584,093.20613,317.97644,004.99676,227.41710,062.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 81,39560,80170,49358,22987,69884,237.8588,452.6492,878.3297,525.44102,405.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 63,73043,56444,68330,18059,71156,995.0359,846.7562,841.1465,985.3669,286.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 17,66517,23725,81028,04927,98727,242.8228,605.9030,037.1831,540.0733,118.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 99,10492,97177,928108,286121,822117,473.30123,351.01129,522.81136,003.41142,808.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 43,61945,01048,70845,38533,89851,362.6053,932.5056,630.9859,464.4862,439.76
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 34,84035,68641,02344,03450,89648,294.4350,710.8253,248.1055,912.3458,709.88
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 66,16365,66976,67675,16881,671.5985,757.9890,048.8394,554.3799,285.35104,253.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -24,184-23,377-25,123-20,142-20,299-26,776.99-28,116.76-29,523.57-31,000.76-32,551.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 77.22
Beta 0.453
Diluted Shares Outstanding 357.82
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 30.96
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.74%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.688
Total Debt 246,851
Total Equity 27,631.06
Total Capital 274,482.06
Debt Weighting 89.93
Equity Weighting 10.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 460,456469,744506,711492,966556,261584,093.20613,317.97644,004.99676,227.41710,062.06
EBITDA 81,39560,80170,49358,22987,69884,237.8588,452.6492,878.3297,525.44102,405.07
EBIT 63,73043,56444,68330,18059,71156,995.0359,846.7562,841.1465,985.3669,286.90
Tax Rate -6.38%28.66%35.91%109.99%30.96%39.83%39.83%39.83%39.83%39.83%
EBIAT 67,793.5631,076.8028,638.02-3,016.2841,221.6534,293.3036,009.1537,810.8539,702.6941,689.19
Depreciation 17,66517,23725,81028,04927,98727,242.8228,605.9030,037.1831,540.0733,118.16
Accounts Receivable --1,391-3,6983,32311,487-17,464.60-2,569.90-2,698.48-2,833.50-2,975.27
Inventories --846-5,337-3,011-6,8622,601.57-2,416.38-2,537.29-2,664.24-2,797.54
Accounts Payable --49411,007-1,5086,503.594,086.394,290.854,505.544,730.974,967.69
Capital Expenditure -24,184-23,377-25,123-20,142-20,299-26,776.99-28,116.76-29,523.57-31,000.76-32,551.87
UFCF 61,274.5522,205.8031,297.023,694.7260,038.2423,982.4935,802.8637,594.2339,475.2441,450.36
WACC
PV UFCF 22,877.5132,579.6632,633.5632,687.5532,741.64
SUM PV UFCF 153,519.92

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.83
Free cash flow (t + 1) 42,279.37
Terminal Value 1,493,970.56
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,180,087.23

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,333,607.15
Net Debt 149,444
Equity Value 1,184,163.15
Shares Outstanding 357.82
Equity Value Per Share 3,309.36