Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. ... (FMX)

$118.83

-14.63 (-10.96%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 230.26 | 118.83 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 469,744506,711492,966556,261673,202738,871.72810,947.42890,053.98976,877.251,072,169.98
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 60,80148,68736,06756,90061,91572,844.3279,950.1687,749.1796,308.95105,703.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 43,56422,8778,01828,91331,38837,350.7140,994.2144,993.1349,382.1354,199.28
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 17,23725,81028,04927,98730,52735,493.6138,955.9542,756.0446,926.8251,504.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 92,97177,928107,895121,82283,490135,006.65148,176.32162,630.67178,495.02195,906.91
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 28,16429,63328,24933,89845,54144,971.9749,358.9154,173.7859,458.3565,258.41
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 35,68641,02344,18950,89662,22463,615.9669,821.5976,632.5784,107.9592,312.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 65,66976,67675,16893,35278,400107,561.75118,054.21129,570.20142,209.56156,081.86
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -23,377-25,123-20,142-20,299-32,440-33,232.12-36,473.85-40,031.82-43,936.85-48,222.82
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 118.83
Beta 0.409
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,578.23
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 42.90
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.32%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.215
Total Debt 280,639
Total Equity 425,200.63
Total Capital 705,839.63
Debt Weighting 39.76
Equity Weighting 60.24
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 469,744506,711492,966556,261673,202738,871.72810,947.42890,053.98976,877.251,072,169.98
EBITDA 60,80148,68736,06756,90061,91572,844.3279,950.1687,749.1796,308.95105,703.73
EBIT 43,56422,8778,01828,91331,38837,350.7140,994.2144,993.1349,382.1354,199.28
Tax Rate 31.93%35.49%78.26%30.96%42.90%43.91%43.91%43.91%43.91%43.91%
EBIAT 29,651.9214,757.721,743.2519,960.1717,922.6220,950.1122,993.7625,236.7627,698.5730,400.52
Depreciation 17,23725,81028,04927,98730,52735,493.6138,955.9542,756.0446,926.8251,504.45
Accounts Receivable --1,4691,384-5,649-11,643569.03-4,386.94-4,814.88-5,284.56-5,800.06
Inventories --5,337-3,166-6,707-11,328-1,391.96-6,205.63-6,810.98-7,475.38-8,204.59
Accounts Payable -11,007-1,50818,184-14,95229,161.7510,492.4711,515.9912,639.3613,872.30
Capital Expenditure -23,377-25,123-20,142-20,299-32,440-33,232.12-36,473.85-40,031.82-43,936.85-48,222.82
UFCF 23,511.9219,645.726,360.2533,476.17-21,913.3851,550.4225,375.7627,851.1230,567.9533,549.80
WACC
PV UFCF 49,067.6022,990.2824,017.6525,090.9326,212.17
SUM PV UFCF 147,378.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.06
Free cash flow (t + 1) 34,220.80
Terminal Value 1,118,326.73
Present Value of Terminal Value 873,739

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,021,117.63
Net Debt 197,200
Equity Value 823,917.63
Shares Outstanding 3,578.23
Equity Value Per Share 230.26