Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
FNCB Bancorp, Inc. (FNCB)
$8.13
-0.06 (-0.73%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 40.27 | 48.30 | 43.88 | 49.43 | 57.26 | 62.88 | 69.06 | 75.84 | 83.28 | 91.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 18.75 | 27.97 | 26.18 | 26.36 | 30.30 | 34 | 37.34 | 41.01 | 45.04 | 49.46 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 16.23 | 25 | 23.20 | 24.73 | 28.73 | 30.83 | 33.86 | 37.18 | 40.83 | 44.84 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2.52 | 2.97 | 2.99 | 1.63 | 1.57 | 3.17 | 3.48 | 3.83 | 4.20 | 4.62 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 328.13 | 332.51 | 307.40 | 505.85 | 621.59 | 542.40 | 595.65 | 654.13 | 718.35 | 788.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 3.23 | 3.61 | 3.23 | 4.29 | 4.64 | 4.99 | 5.48 | 6.02 | 6.61 | 7.26 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.24 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.28 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.09 | -6.02 | -4.54 | -1.69 | -1.29 | -3.92 | -4.31 | -4.73 | -5.19 | -5.70 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.13 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.306 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 20.13 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.89 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.32% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.079 |
| Total Debt | 30.31 |
| Total Equity | 163.63 |
| Total Capital | 193.94 |
| Debt Weighting | 15.63 |
| Equity Weighting | 84.37 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 40.27 | 48.30 | 43.88 | 49.43 | 57.26 | 62.88 | 69.06 | 75.84 | 83.28 | 91.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 18.75 | 27.97 | 26.18 | 26.36 | 30.30 | 34 | 37.34 | 41.01 | 45.04 | 49.46 |
| EBIT | 16.23 | 25 | 23.20 | 24.73 | 28.73 | 30.83 | 33.86 | 37.18 | 40.83 | 44.84 |
| Tax Rate | 98.71% | 18.70% | 17.36% | 17.36% | 17.89% | 34.01% | 34.01% | 34.01% | 34.01% | 34.01% |
| EBIAT | 0.21 | 20.32 | 19.17 | 20.44 | 23.59 | 20.35 | 22.34 | 24.54 | 26.95 | 29.59 |
| Depreciation | 2.52 | 2.97 | 2.99 | 1.63 | 1.57 | 3.17 | 3.48 | 3.83 | 4.20 | 4.62 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.38 | 0.38 | -1.05 | -0.36 | -0.35 | -0.49 | -0.54 | -0.59 | -0.65 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.10 | -0.08 | -0.15 | -0.06 | 0.23 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.09 | -6.01 | -4.54 | -1.69 | -1.29 | -3.92 | -4.31 | -4.73 | -5.19 | -5.70 |
| UFCF | 1.63 | 16.99 | 17.92 | 19.17 | 23.45 | 19.48 | 21.06 | 23.13 | 25.40 | 27.89 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 18.48 | 18.95 | 19.73 | 20.56 | 21.41 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 99.13 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.43 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 28.45 |
| Terminal Value | 829.43 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 636.74 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 735.86 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -68.71 |
| Equity Value | 804.57 |
| Shares Outstanding | 20.13 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 39.97 |