Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ferro Corporation (FOE)

$22.01

+0.06 (+0.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 7.77 | 22.01 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,396.741,612.411,018.37958.951,126.261,098.701,071.821,045.591,020995.04
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 184.15187.6791.85117.12255.28151.01147.31143.71140.19136.76
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 134.06133.7035.9776.83215.07106.64104.03101.489996.58
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 50.0953.9755.8840.2940.2144.3743.2842.2341.1940.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 63.55104.3096.20174.0871.4998.8196.3994.0391.7389.49
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 421.55398.02205.17209.28192.14250.28244.15238.18232.35226.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 324.18357264.62260.33262.67267.66261.11254.72248.48242.40
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 211.71256.57138.83135.30136.60155.88152.07148.35144.72141.18
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -50.55-80.62-64.97-31.78-29.96-46.09-44.96-43.86-42.79-41.74
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 22.01
Beta 1.415
Diluted Shares Outstanding 83.69
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -32.23
After-tax Cost of Debt 10.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.377
Total Debt 269.12
Total Equity 1,841.95
Total Capital 2,111.07
Debt Weighting 12.75
Equity Weighting 87.25
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,396.741,612.411,018.37958.951,126.261,098.701,071.821,045.591,020995.04
EBITDA 184.15187.6791.85117.12255.28151.01147.31143.71140.19136.76
EBIT 134.06133.7035.9776.83215.07106.64104.03101.489996.58
Tax Rate 48.38%22.98%86.12%4.68%-32.23%25.99%25.99%25.99%25.99%25.99%
EBIAT 69.21102.974.9973.23284.3878.937775.1173.2771.48
Depreciation 50.0953.9755.8840.2940.2144.3743.2842.2341.1940.18
Accounts Receivable -23.53192.86-4.1117.14-58.146.125.975.835.69
Inventories --32.8292.384.29-2.34-4.996.556.396.236.08
Accounts Payable -44.86-117.74-3.531.3019.28-3.81-3.72-3.63-3.54
Capital Expenditure -50.55-80.62-64.97-31.78-29.96-46.09-44.96-43.86-42.79-41.74
UFCF 68.74111.90163.3978.38310.7433.3784.1882.1280.1178.15
WACC
PV UFCF 30.2569.1561.1554.0647.80
SUM PV UFCF 262.42

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.33
Free cash flow (t + 1) 79.71
Terminal Value 956.94
Present Value of Terminal Value 585.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 847.77
Net Debt 197.63
Equity Value 650.14
Shares Outstanding 83.69
Equity Value Per Share 7.77