Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (FOLD)

$13.25

-0.26 (-1.92%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -1,016.63 | 13.25 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	36.93	91.24	182.24	260.89	305.51	540.04	954.61	1,687.42	2,982.78	5,272.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-428.29	-322.47	-332.26	-242.98	-202.87	-2,003.57	-3,541.62	-6,260.36	-11,066.17	-19,561.17
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-431.88	-326.69	-337.04	-251.83	-209.08	-2,027.76	-3,584.37	-6,335.94	-11,199.75	-19,797.31
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	3.59	4.22	4.77	8.85	6.21	24.19	42.75	75.57	133.59	236.14
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	358.56	504.15	452.74	483.27	482.50	2,284.44	4,038.11	7,137.98	12,617.49	22,303.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	9.46	21.96	33.28	46.92	52.67	111.45	197.01	348.24	615.57	1,088.11
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	4.62	8.39	14.04	19.56	26.82	49.35	87.24	154.20	272.58	481.83
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	7.87	6.61	21.72	17.06	21.51	58.37	103.18	182.39	322.40	569.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-4.53	-6.31	-20.01	-3.23	-3.88	-35.27	-62.35	-110.22	-194.83	-344.38
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 13.25
Beta	0.852
Diluted Shares Outstanding	271.42
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-3.69
After-tax Cost of Debt	7.38%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.552
Total Debt	440.13
Total Equity	3,596.34
Total Capital	4,036.47
Debt Weighting	10.90
Equity Weighting	89.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	36.93	91.24	182.24	260.89	305.51	540.04	954.61	1,687.42	2,982.78	5,272.53
EBITDA	-428.29	-322.47	-332.26	-242.98	-202.87	-2,003.57	-3,541.62	-6,260.36	-11,066.17	-19,561.17
EBIT	-431.88	-326.69	-337.04	-251.83	-209.08	-2,027.76	-3,584.37	-6,335.94	-11,199.75	-19,797.31
Tax Rate	36.76%	0.03%	-0.13%	-0.95%	-3.69%	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
EBIAT	-273.10	-326.60	-337.49	-254.21	-216.79	-1,897.89	-3,354.81	-5,930.14	-10,482.45	-18,529.36
Depreciation	3.59	4.22	4.77	8.85	6.21	24.19	42.75	75.57	133.59	236.14
Accounts Receivable	-	-12.50	-11.32	-13.64	-5.75	-58.78	-85.56	-151.23	-267.33	-472.54
Inventories	-	-3.77	-5.65	-5.51	-7.26	-22.53	-37.88	-66.97	-118.38	-209.25
Accounts Payable	-	-1.26	15.12	-4.66	4.45	36.86	44.81	79.21	140.01	247.49
Capital Expenditure	-4.53	-6.31	-20.01	-3.23	-3.88	-35.27	-62.35	-110.22	-194.83	-344.38
UFCF	-274.03	-346.22	-354.58	-272.41	-223.03	-1,953.43	-3,453.04	-6,103.78	-10,789.38	-19,071.90
WACC
PV UFCF						-1,816.63	-2,986.36	-4,909.19	-8,070.08	-13,266.18
SUM PV UFCF										-31,048.44

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.53
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-19,453.34
Terminal Value	-351,778.27
Present Value of Terminal Value	-244,692.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-275,741.01
Net Debt	194.93
Equity Value	-275,935.94
Shares Outstanding	271.42
Equity Value Per Share	-1,016.63