Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (FOLD)

$13.25

-0.26 (-1.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1,016.63 | 13.25 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 36.9391.24182.24260.89305.51540.04954.611,687.422,982.785,272.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -428.29-322.47-332.26-242.98-202.87-2,003.57-3,541.62-6,260.36-11,066.17-19,561.17
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -431.88-326.69-337.04-251.83-209.08-2,027.76-3,584.37-6,335.94-11,199.75-19,797.31
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.594.224.778.856.2124.1942.7575.57133.59236.14
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 358.56504.15452.74483.27482.502,284.444,038.117,137.9812,617.4922,303.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9.4621.9633.2846.9252.67111.45197.01348.24615.571,088.11
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4.628.3914.0419.5626.8249.3587.24154.20272.58481.83
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7.876.6121.7217.0621.5158.37103.18182.39322.40569.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.53-6.31-20.01-3.23-3.88-35.27-62.35-110.22-194.83-344.38
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.25
Beta 0.852
Diluted Shares Outstanding 271.42
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -3.69
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.38%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.552
Total Debt 440.13
Total Equity 3,596.34
Total Capital 4,036.47
Debt Weighting 10.90
Equity Weighting 89.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 36.9391.24182.24260.89305.51540.04954.611,687.422,982.785,272.53
EBITDA -428.29-322.47-332.26-242.98-202.87-2,003.57-3,541.62-6,260.36-11,066.17-19,561.17
EBIT -431.88-326.69-337.04-251.83-209.08-2,027.76-3,584.37-6,335.94-11,199.75-19,797.31
Tax Rate 36.76%0.03%-0.13%-0.95%-3.69%6.40%6.40%6.40%6.40%6.40%
EBIAT -273.10-326.60-337.49-254.21-216.79-1,897.89-3,354.81-5,930.14-10,482.45-18,529.36
Depreciation 3.594.224.778.856.2124.1942.7575.57133.59236.14
Accounts Receivable --12.50-11.32-13.64-5.75-58.78-85.56-151.23-267.33-472.54
Inventories --3.77-5.65-5.51-7.26-22.53-37.88-66.97-118.38-209.25
Accounts Payable --1.2615.12-4.664.4536.8644.8179.21140.01247.49
Capital Expenditure -4.53-6.31-20.01-3.23-3.88-35.27-62.35-110.22-194.83-344.38
UFCF -274.03-346.22-354.58-272.41-223.03-1,953.43-3,453.04-6,103.78-10,789.38-19,071.90
WACC
PV UFCF -1,816.63-2,986.36-4,909.19-8,070.08-13,266.18
SUM PV UFCF -31,048.44

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.53
Free cash flow (t + 1) -19,453.34
Terminal Value -351,778.27
Present Value of Terminal Value -244,692.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -275,741.01
Net Debt 194.93
Equity Value -275,935.94
Shares Outstanding 271.42
Equity Value Per Share -1,016.63