Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Forrester Research, Inc. (FORR)
$42.74
-1.34 (-3.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 337.67 | 357.58 | 461.70 | 448.98 | 494.32 | 546.66 | 604.54 | 668.56 | 739.35 | 817.64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 34.80 | 32.64 | 42.24 | 61.23 | 61.93 | 59.86 | 66.20 | 73.21 | 80.96 | 89.53 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 27.37 | 23.52 | -1.54 | 18.27 | 37.41 | 28.41 | 31.42 | 34.75 | 38.43 | 42.50 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 7.43 | 9.12 | 43.78 | 42.96 | 24.52 | 31.44 | 34.77 | 38.46 | 42.53 | 47.03 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 134.12 | 140.30 | 67.90 | 90.26 | 134.28 | 154.08 | 170.40 | 188.44 | 208.39 | 230.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 70.02 | 67.32 | 84.61 | 84.69 | 0 | 83.91 | 92.80 | 102.63 | 113.49 | 125.51 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.22 | 0.59 | 0.50 | 0.66 | - | 0.53 | 0.59 | 0.65 | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7.86 | -5.05 | -11.89 | -8.91 | -10.74 | -11.45 | -12.66 | -14 | -15.49 | -17.13 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 42.74 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.989 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 18.93 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 25.15 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4,213,646.99% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.506 |
| Total Debt | 0 |
| Total Equity | 809.28 |
| Total Capital | 809.28 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 337.67 | 357.58 | 461.70 | 448.98 | 494.32 | 546.66 | 604.54 | 668.56 | 739.35 | 817.64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 34.80 | 32.64 | 42.24 | 61.23 | 61.93 | 59.86 | 66.20 | 73.21 | 80.96 | 89.53 |
| EBIT | 27.37 | 23.52 | -1.54 | 18.27 | 37.41 | 28.41 | 31.42 | 34.75 | 38.43 | 42.50 |
| Tax Rate | 44.69% | 34.62% | 0.30% | 22.76% | 25.15% | 25.50% | 25.50% | 25.50% | 25.50% | 25.50% |
| EBIAT | 15.14 | 15.38 | -1.54 | 14.11 | 28 | 21.17 | 23.41 | 25.89 | 28.63 | 31.66 |
| Depreciation | 7.43 | 9.12 | 43.78 | 42.96 | 24.52 | 31.44 | 34.77 | 38.46 | 42.53 | 47.03 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 2.71 | -17.29 | -0.09 | 84.69 | -83.91 | -8.89 | -9.83 | -10.87 | -12.02 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.37 | -0.08 | 0.15 | -0.66 | - | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Capital Expenditure | -7.86 | -5.05 | -11.89 | -8.90 | -10.74 | -11.45 | -12.66 | -14 | -15.49 | -17.13 |
| UFCF | 14.71 | 22.52 | 12.98 | 48.23 | 125.82 | -42.75 | 36.69 | 40.58 | 44.87 | 49.63 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -39.62 | 31.52 | 32.30 | 33.11 | 33.93 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 91.23 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.90 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 50.62 |
| Terminal Value | 857.93 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 586.61 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 677.84 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -134.28 |
| Equity Value | 812.12 |
| Shares Outstanding | 18.93 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 42.89 |