Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)

$1.07

-0.01 (-0.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 9.49 | 1.07 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,541.502,217.701,613.301,8701,682.401,538.911,407.671,287.611,177.801,077.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 115.5044.80-101.10109.305.6019.9318.2316.6815.2513.95
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 47.92-9.99-144.2379.69-17.73-13.23-12.10-11.07-10.12-9.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 67.5854.7943.1329.6123.3333.1630.3327.7425.3823.21
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 403.40200.20316250.80198.70214.55196.25179.52164.21150.20
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 328289.70229.80255.10206.10203.46186.11170.24155.72142.44
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 377.60452.30295.30346.90376290.72265.93243.25222.50203.52
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 169.56172.19178.21229.88191.14151.23138.34126.54115.75105.87
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -17.96-24.15-10.69-10.29-13.26-11.69-10.69-9.78-8.94-8.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.07
Beta 2.071
Diluted Shares Outstanding 51.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -96.83
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.24%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.102
Total Debt 366.60
Total Equity 55.47
Total Capital 422.07
Debt Weighting 86.86
Equity Weighting 13.14
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,541.502,217.701,613.301,8701,682.401,538.911,407.671,287.611,177.801,077.35
EBITDA 115.5044.80-101.10109.305.6019.9318.2316.6815.2513.95
EBIT 47.92-9.99-144.2379.69-17.73-13.23-12.10-11.07-10.12-9.26
Tax Rate 117.33%-59.74%44.21%52.10%-96.83%11.41%11.41%11.41%11.41%11.41%
EBIAT -8.30-15.96-80.4738.17-34.90-11.72-10.72-9.80-8.97-8.20
Depreciation 67.5854.7943.1329.6123.3333.1630.3327.7425.3823.21
Accounts Receivable -38.3059.90-25.30492.6417.3515.8714.5213.28
Inventories --74.70157-51.60-29.1085.2824.7922.6820.7518.98
Accounts Payable -2.636.0251.66-38.74-39.91-12.90-11.80-10.79-9.87
Capital Expenditure -17.96-24.15-10.69-10.29-13.26-11.69-10.69-9.78-8.94-8.18
UFCF 41.32-19.09174.9032.25-43.6757.7738.1734.9231.9429.21
WACC
PV UFCF 54.2933.7228.9924.9221.42
SUM PV UFCF 163.34

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 29.80
Terminal Value 677.23
Present Value of Terminal Value 496.63

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 659.96
Net Debt 167.90
Equity Value 492.06
Shares Outstanding 51.84
Equity Value Per Share 9.49