Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Forterra, Inc. (FRTA)

$24

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 7.17 | 24 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,580.411,479.711,529.751,594.511,858.301,940.932,027.242,117.392,211.542,309.88
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 132.33162.48181.62242.33312.60245.51256.43267.83279.74292.18
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 16.6857.0684.36152.84230125.73131.32137.16143.25149.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 115.66105.4297.2689.5082.60119.79125.11130.68136.49142.56
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 104.5335.7934.8025.6856.8062.0164.7767.6570.6673.80
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 192.65198.47205.80227.95293.90268.50280.44292.91305.93319.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 236.65285.03238.48222.93263.70302.78316.24330.30344.99360.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 108.56114.71102.43134.14144.50145.59152.07158.83165.89173.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -52.51-50.61-53.71-34.02-65.60-61.79-64.54-67.41-70.40-73.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 24
Beta 2.192
Diluted Shares Outstanding 69.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.97
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.19%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.945
Total Debt 1,084.50
Total Equity 1,671.46
Total Capital 2,755.96
Debt Weighting 39.35
Equity Weighting 60.65
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,580.411,479.711,529.751,594.511,858.301,940.932,027.242,117.392,211.542,309.88
EBITDA 132.33162.48181.62242.33312.60245.51256.43267.83279.74292.18
EBIT 16.6857.0684.36152.84230125.73131.32137.16143.25149.62
Tax Rate 95.18%-14.50%30.90%11.60%24.97%29.63%29.63%29.63%29.63%29.63%
EBIAT 0.8065.3358.29135.11172.5788.4792.4196.52100.81105.29
Depreciation 115.66105.4297.2689.5082.60119.79125.11130.68136.49142.56
Accounts Receivable --5.81-7.33-22.15-65.9525.40-11.94-12.47-13.02-13.60
Inventories --48.3846.5515.56-40.77-39.08-13.46-14.06-14.69-15.34
Accounts Payable -6.15-12.2831.7210.361.096.476.767.067.38
Capital Expenditure -52.51-50.61-53.71-34.02-65.60-61.79-64.54-67.41-70.40-73.54
UFCF 63.9572.10128.77215.7193.21133.89134.05140.02146.24152.74
WACC
PV UFCF 120.50108.59102.0795.9590.20
SUM PV UFCF 517.31

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.11
Free cash flow (t + 1) 155.80
Terminal Value 1,710.20
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,009.91

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,527.22
Net Debt 1,027.70
Equity Value 499.52
Shares Outstanding 69.64
Equity Value Per Share 7.17