Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Forterra, Inc. (FRTA)
$24
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,580.41 | 1,479.71 | 1,529.75 | 1,594.51 | 1,858.30 | 1,940.93 | 2,027.24 | 2,117.39 | 2,211.54 | 2,309.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 132.33 | 162.48 | 181.62 | 242.33 | 312.60 | 245.51 | 256.43 | 267.83 | 279.74 | 292.18 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 16.68 | 57.06 | 84.36 | 152.84 | 230 | 125.73 | 131.32 | 137.16 | 143.25 | 149.62 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 115.66 | 105.42 | 97.26 | 89.50 | 82.60 | 119.79 | 125.11 | 130.68 | 136.49 | 142.56 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 104.53 | 35.79 | 34.80 | 25.68 | 56.80 | 62.01 | 64.77 | 67.65 | 70.66 | 73.80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 192.65 | 198.47 | 205.80 | 227.95 | 293.90 | 268.50 | 280.44 | 292.91 | 305.93 | 319.54 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 236.65 | 285.03 | 238.48 | 222.93 | 263.70 | 302.78 | 316.24 | 330.30 | 344.99 | 360.33 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 108.56 | 114.71 | 102.43 | 134.14 | 144.50 | 145.59 | 152.07 | 158.83 | 165.89 | 173.27 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -52.51 | -50.61 | -53.71 | -34.02 | -65.60 | -61.79 | -64.54 | -67.41 | -70.40 | -73.54 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 24 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.192 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 69.64 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.97 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.19% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.945 |
| Total Debt | 1,084.50 |
| Total Equity | 1,671.46 |
| Total Capital | 2,755.96 |
| Debt Weighting | 39.35 |
| Equity Weighting | 60.65 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,580.41 | 1,479.71 | 1,529.75 | 1,594.51 | 1,858.30 | 1,940.93 | 2,027.24 | 2,117.39 | 2,211.54 | 2,309.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 132.33 | 162.48 | 181.62 | 242.33 | 312.60 | 245.51 | 256.43 | 267.83 | 279.74 | 292.18 |
| EBIT | 16.68 | 57.06 | 84.36 | 152.84 | 230 | 125.73 | 131.32 | 137.16 | 143.25 | 149.62 |
| Tax Rate | 95.18% | -14.50% | 30.90% | 11.60% | 24.97% | 29.63% | 29.63% | 29.63% | 29.63% | 29.63% |
| EBIAT | 0.80 | 65.33 | 58.29 | 135.11 | 172.57 | 88.47 | 92.41 | 96.52 | 100.81 | 105.29 |
| Depreciation | 115.66 | 105.42 | 97.26 | 89.50 | 82.60 | 119.79 | 125.11 | 130.68 | 136.49 | 142.56 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -5.81 | -7.33 | -22.15 | -65.95 | 25.40 | -11.94 | -12.47 | -13.02 | -13.60 |
| Inventories | - | -48.38 | 46.55 | 15.56 | -40.77 | -39.08 | -13.46 | -14.06 | -14.69 | -15.34 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 6.15 | -12.28 | 31.72 | 10.36 | 1.09 | 6.47 | 6.76 | 7.06 | 7.38 |
| Capital Expenditure | -52.51 | -50.61 | -53.71 | -34.02 | -65.60 | -61.79 | -64.54 | -67.41 | -70.40 | -73.54 |
| UFCF | 63.95 | 72.10 | 128.77 | 215.71 | 93.21 | 133.89 | 134.05 | 140.02 | 146.24 | 152.74 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 120.50 | 108.59 | 102.07 | 95.95 | 90.20 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 517.31 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.11 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 155.80 |
| Terminal Value | 1,710.20 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,009.91 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,527.22 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,027.70 |
| Equity Value | 499.52 |
| Shares Outstanding | 69.64 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 7.17 |