Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
FS Bancorp, Inc. (FSBW)
$29.64
+0.27 (+0.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 68.80 | 90.27 | 127.41 | 121.36 | 119.67 | 139.48 | 162.56 | 189.47 | 220.83 | 257.38 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 44.06 | 28.89 | 50.56 | 48.11 | 65.41 | 64.17 | 74.79 | 87.16 | 101.59 | 118.41 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 38.80 | 16.89 | 36.94 | 32.93 | 51.40 | 48.59 | 56.63 | 66 | 76.93 | 89.66 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 5.26 | 12 | 13.62 | 15.18 | 14 | 15.58 | 18.16 | 21.16 | 24.67 | 28.75 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 152.06 | 192.74 | 281.87 | 308.39 | 275.40 | 318.01 | 370.64 | 431.99 | 503.49 | 586.82 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 5.76 | 5.91 | 7.03 | 7.59 | 11.14 | 10.04 | 11.71 | 13.64 | 15.90 | 18.53 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3.80 | -2.46 | -1.38 | -1.98 | -1.55 | -3.42 | -3.99 | -4.65 | -5.41 | -6.31 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 29.64 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.045 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 8.09 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 19.84 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.76% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.531 |
| Total Debt | 242.46 |
| Total Equity | 239.86 |
| Total Capital | 482.32 |
| Debt Weighting | 50.27 |
| Equity Weighting | 49.73 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 68.80 | 90.27 | 127.41 | 121.36 | 119.67 | 139.48 | 162.56 | 189.47 | 220.83 | 257.38 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 44.06 | 28.89 | 50.56 | 48.11 | 65.41 | 64.17 | 74.79 | 87.16 | 101.59 | 118.41 |
| EBIT | 38.80 | 16.89 | 36.94 | 32.93 | 51.40 | 48.59 | 56.63 | 66 | 76.93 | 89.66 |
| Tax Rate | 14.78% | 19.24% | 21.24% | 21.11% | 19.84% | 19.24% | 19.24% | 19.24% | 19.24% | 19.24% |
| EBIAT | 33.06 | 13.64 | 29.09 | 25.98 | 41.20 | 39.24 | 45.73 | 53.30 | 62.12 | 72.41 |
| Depreciation | 5.26 | 12 | 13.62 | 15.18 | 14 | 15.58 | 18.16 | 21.16 | 24.67 | 28.75 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.15 | -1.12 | -0.56 | -3.55 | 1.10 | -1.66 | -1.94 | -2.26 | -2.63 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -3.80 | -2.46 | -1.38 | -1.98 | -1.55 | -3.42 | -3.99 | -4.65 | -5.41 | -6.31 |
| UFCF | 34.53 | 23.03 | 40.21 | 38.61 | 50.11 | 52.50 | 58.24 | 67.88 | 79.12 | 92.21 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 49 | 50.75 | 55.21 | 60.07 | 65.35 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 280.38 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.13 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 94.06 |
| Terminal Value | 1,833.46 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,299.32 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,579.69 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 196.31 |
| Equity Value | 1,383.38 |
| Shares Outstanding | 8.09 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 170.95 |