Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
FS Bancorp, Inc. (FSBW)
$29.36
+0.96 (+3.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 90.27 | 127.41 | 121.36 | 119.67 | 133.63 | 149.23 | 166.64 | 186.08 | 207.79 | 232.04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 59.45 | 78.19 | 72.33 | 65.41 | 80.67 | 90.09 | 100.60 | 112.34 | 125.44 | 140.08 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 47.45 | 64.57 | 57.15 | 51.40 | 64.57 | 72.11 | 80.52 | 89.91 | 100.40 | 112.12 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 12 | 13.62 | 15.18 | 14 | 16.10 | 17.98 | 20.08 | 22.42 | 25.04 | 27.96 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 192.74 | 281.87 | 308.39 | 275.40 | 253.85 | 330.97 | 369.59 | 412.71 | 460.87 | 514.64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 5.91 | 7.03 | 7.59 | 11.14 | 2,311.98 | 524.60 | 585.81 | 654.16 | 730.49 | 815.72 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.46 | -1.38 | -1.98 | -1.55 | -2.25 | -2.52 | -2.81 | -3.14 | -3.50 | -3.91 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 29.36 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.019 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 8.09 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 19.84 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.01% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.419 |
| Total Debt | 7.65 |
| Total Equity | 237.59 |
| Total Capital | 245.24 |
| Debt Weighting | 3.12 |
| Equity Weighting | 96.88 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 90.27 | 127.41 | 121.36 | 119.67 | 133.63 | 149.23 | 166.64 | 186.08 | 207.79 | 232.04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 59.45 | 78.19 | 72.33 | 65.41 | 80.67 | 90.09 | 100.60 | 112.34 | 125.44 | 140.08 |
| EBIT | 47.45 | 64.57 | 57.15 | 51.40 | 64.57 | 72.11 | 80.52 | 89.91 | 100.40 | 112.12 |
| Tax Rate | 19.24% | 21.24% | 21.11% | 19.84% | 20.36% | 20.36% | 20.36% | 20.36% | 20.36% | 20.36% |
| EBIAT | 38.32 | 50.86 | 45.08 | 41.20 | 51.43 | 57.43 | 64.13 | 71.61 | 79.97 | 89.30 |
| Depreciation | 12 | 13.62 | 15.18 | 14 | 16.10 | 17.98 | 20.08 | 22.42 | 25.04 | 27.96 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.12 | -0.56 | -3.55 | -2,300.84 | 1,787.39 | -61.21 | -68.35 | -76.33 | -85.23 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.46 | -1.38 | -1.98 | -1.55 | -2.25 | -2.52 | -2.81 | -3.14 | -3.50 | -3.91 |
| UFCF | 47.86 | 61.97 | 57.72 | 50.11 | -2,235.56 | 1,860.28 | 20.19 | 22.54 | 25.17 | 28.11 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -2,235.56 | 1,718.03 | 17.22 | 17.76 | 18.31 | 18.89 | ||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,790.20 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.28 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 28.67 |
| Terminal Value | 456.59 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 306.75 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,096.96 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -13.83 |
| Equity Value | 2,110.79 |
| Shares Outstanding | 8.09 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 260.84 |