Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

FS Bancorp, Inc. (FSBW)

$29.64

+0.27 (+0.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 170.95 | 29.64 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 68.8090.27127.41121.36119.67139.48162.56189.47220.83257.38
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 44.0628.8950.5648.1165.4164.1774.7987.16101.59118.41
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 38.8016.8936.9432.9351.4048.5956.636676.9389.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5.261213.6215.181415.5818.1621.1624.6728.75
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 152.06192.74281.87308.39275.40318.01370.64431.99503.49586.82
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.765.917.037.5911.1410.0411.7113.6415.9018.53
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.80-2.46-1.38-1.98-1.55-3.42-3.99-4.65-5.41-6.31
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.64
Beta 1.045
Diluted Shares Outstanding 8.09
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.84
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.531
Total Debt 242.46
Total Equity 239.86
Total Capital 482.32
Debt Weighting 50.27
Equity Weighting 49.73
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 68.8090.27127.41121.36119.67139.48162.56189.47220.83257.38
EBITDA 44.0628.8950.5648.1165.4164.1774.7987.16101.59118.41
EBIT 38.8016.8936.9432.9351.4048.5956.636676.9389.66
Tax Rate 14.78%19.24%21.24%21.11%19.84%19.24%19.24%19.24%19.24%19.24%
EBIAT 33.0613.6429.0925.9841.2039.2445.7353.3062.1272.41
Depreciation 5.261213.6215.181415.5818.1621.1624.6728.75
Accounts Receivable --0.15-1.12-0.56-3.551.10-1.66-1.94-2.26-2.63
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -3.80-2.46-1.38-1.98-1.55-3.42-3.99-4.65-5.41-6.31
UFCF 34.5323.0340.2138.6150.1152.5058.2467.8879.1292.21
WACC
PV UFCF 4950.7555.2160.0765.35
SUM PV UFCF 280.38

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) 94.06
Terminal Value 1,833.46
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,299.32

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,579.69
Net Debt 196.31
Equity Value 1,383.38
Shares Outstanding 8.09
Equity Value Per Share 170.95