Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

FS Bancorp, Inc. (FSBW)

$29.36

+0.96 (+3.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 260.84 | 29.36 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 90.27127.41121.36119.67133.63149.23166.64186.08207.79232.04
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 59.4578.1972.3365.4180.6790.09100.60112.34125.44140.08
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 47.4564.5757.1551.4064.5772.1180.5289.91100.40112.12
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1213.6215.181416.1017.9820.0822.4225.0427.96
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 192.74281.87308.39275.40253.85330.97369.59412.71460.87514.64
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.917.037.5911.142,311.98524.60585.81654.16730.49815.72
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.46-1.38-1.98-1.55-2.25-2.52-2.81-3.14-3.50-3.91
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.36
Beta 1.019
Diluted Shares Outstanding 8.09
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.84
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.419
Total Debt 7.65
Total Equity 237.59
Total Capital 245.24
Debt Weighting 3.12
Equity Weighting 96.88
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 90.27127.41121.36119.67133.63149.23166.64186.08207.79232.04
EBITDA 59.4578.1972.3365.4180.6790.09100.60112.34125.44140.08
EBIT 47.4564.5757.1551.4064.5772.1180.5289.91100.40112.12
Tax Rate 19.24%21.24%21.11%19.84%20.36%20.36%20.36%20.36%20.36%20.36%
EBIAT 38.3250.8645.0841.2051.4357.4364.1371.6179.9789.30
Depreciation 1213.6215.181416.1017.9820.0822.4225.0427.96
Accounts Receivable --1.12-0.56-3.55-2,300.841,787.39-61.21-68.35-76.33-85.23
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -2.46-1.38-1.98-1.55-2.25-2.52-2.81-3.14-3.50-3.91
UFCF 47.8661.9757.7250.11-2,235.561,860.2820.1922.5425.1728.11
WACC
PV UFCF -2,235.561,718.0317.2217.7618.3118.89
SUM PV UFCF 1,790.20

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.28
Free cash flow (t + 1) 28.67
Terminal Value 456.59
Present Value of Terminal Value 306.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,096.96
Net Debt -13.83
Equity Value 2,110.79
Shares Outstanding 8.09
Equity Value Per Share 260.84