Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FSM)
$3.55
+0.03 (+0.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 268.11 | 263.30 | 257.19 | 278.97 | 599.85 | 778.88 | 1,011.33 | 1,313.16 | 1,705.08 | 2,213.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 149.15 | 114.04 | 91.42 | 106.62 | 241.98 | 331.87 | 430.92 | 559.53 | 726.52 | 943.35 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 331.87 | 430.92 | 559.53 | 726.52 | 943.35 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 213.13 | 163.33 | 83.40 | 132.96 | 107.51 | 373.14 | 484.51 | 629.11 | 816.86 | 1,060.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 35.25 | 29.73 | 47.84 | 72.45 | 73.78 | 126.66 | 164.46 | 213.54 | 277.27 | 360.03 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 17.75 | 14.39 | 14.47 | 35.27 | 85.82 | 69.57 | 90.34 | 117.30 | 152.31 | 197.76 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 13.58 | 24.22 | 40.97 | 29.61 | 82.53 | 85 | 110.37 | 143.31 | 186.08 | 241.62 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -47.06 | -97.90 | -224.13 | -114.33 | -152.29 | -324.40 | -421.22 | -546.94 | -710.17 | -922.12 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.55 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.246 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 249.44 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 46.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.06% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.581 |
| Total Debt | 186.89 |
| Total Equity | 885.52 |
| Total Capital | 1,072.42 |
| Debt Weighting | 17.43 |
| Equity Weighting | 82.57 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 268.11 | 263.30 | 257.19 | 278.97 | 599.85 | 778.88 | 1,011.33 | 1,313.16 | 1,705.08 | 2,213.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 149.15 | 114.04 | 91.42 | 106.62 | 241.98 | 331.87 | 430.92 | 559.53 | 726.52 | 943.35 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 331.87 | 430.92 | 559.53 | 726.52 | 943.35 |
| Tax Rate | 36.82% | 49.52% | 45.88% | 63.44% | 46.00% | 48.33% | 48.33% | 48.33% | 48.33% | 48.33% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | 171.46 | 222.64 | 289.08 | 375.36 | 487.39 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 5.53 | -18.12 | -24.61 | -1.33 | -52.88 | -37.80 | -49.08 | -63.73 | -82.75 |
| Inventories | - | 3.37 | -0.08 | -20.80 | -50.55 | 16.24 | -20.76 | -26.96 | -35.01 | -45.46 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 10.64 | 16.75 | -11.36 | 52.92 | 2.47 | 25.37 | 32.94 | 42.77 | 55.54 |
| Capital Expenditure | -47.06 | -97.90 | -224.13 | -114.33 | -152.29 | -324.40 | -421.22 | -546.94 | -710.17 | -922.12 |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -187.11 | -231.78 | -300.96 | -390.78 | -507.40 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -172.26 | -196.45 | -234.84 | -280.73 | -335.59 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,219.87 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.62 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -517.55 |
| Terminal Value | -7,817.98 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -5,170.65 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -6,390.52 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 79.80 |
| Equity Value | -6,470.32 |
| Shares Outstanding | 249.44 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -25.94 |