Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

FirstService Corporation (FSV)

$163.75

-0.63 (-0.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 32.34 | 163.75 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,931.472,407.412,772.423,249.073,745.844,422.765,2226,165.697,279.908,595.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 185.10-81.31272.46336.03333.83312.14368.54435.14513.78606.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 132.33-160.87174.07237.06223.69174.40205.91243.12287.06338.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 52.7779.5698.3898.97110.14137.74162.63192.02226.72267.69
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 66.34121.20184.30165.66136.22210.98249.11294.13347.28410.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 239.93393.73418.89551.56635.94688.53812.95959.871,133.331,338.13
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 48.2394.51141.98161.39242.34203.28240.01283.38334.59395.06
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 174.2876.2398.50100.12115.99193.90228.94270.31319.16376.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -40.60-46.63-39.42-58.20-77.61-82.47-97.38-114.97-135.75-160.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 163.75
Beta 0.905
Diluted Shares Outstanding 44.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 37.58
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.575
Total Debt 952.16
Total Equity 7,285.89
Total Capital 8,238.06
Debt Weighting 11.56
Equity Weighting 88.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,931.472,407.412,772.423,249.073,745.844,422.765,2226,165.697,279.908,595.48
EBITDA 185.10-81.31272.46336.03333.83312.14368.54435.14513.78606.63
EBIT 132.33-160.87174.07237.06223.69174.40205.91243.12287.06338.93
Tax Rate 42.83%-13.54%40.01%35.31%37.58%28.44%28.44%28.44%28.44%28.44%
EBIAT 75.66-182.65104.43153.36139.62124.80147.36173.99205.43242.55
Depreciation 52.7779.5698.3898.97110.14137.74162.63192.02226.72267.69
Accounts Receivable --153.80-25.16-132.67-84.38-52.59-124.43-146.91-173.46-204.81
Inventories --46.28-47.47-19.41-80.9539.07-36.73-43.37-51.21-60.47
Accounts Payable --98.0622.271.6215.8677.9135.0441.3748.8557.68
Capital Expenditure -40.60-46.63-39.41-58.20-77.61-82.47-97.38-114.97-135.75-160.28
UFCF 87.83-447.86113.0443.6722.68244.4686.49102.12120.58142.36
WACC
PV UFCF 226.5874.3081.3188.9997.39
SUM PV UFCF 568.57

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.89
Free cash flow (t + 1) 145.21
Terminal Value 2,465.40
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,686.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,255.05
Net Debt 815.95
Equity Value 1,439.11
Shares Outstanding 44.49
Equity Value Per Share 32.34