Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Fathom Holdings Inc. (FTHM)
$4.54
+0.08 (+1.79%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 77.31 | 109.62 | 176.78 | 330.23 | 412.96 | 634.85 | 975.96 | 1,500.35 | 2,306.50 | 3,545.80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -1.51 | -3.93 | -1.10 | -12.98 | -22.21 | -19.64 | -30.20 | -46.43 | -71.37 | -109.72 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -1.53 | -3.99 | -1.27 | -15.73 | -27.56 | -22.57 | -34.70 | -53.35 | -82.01 | -126.07 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 2.75 | 5.35 | 2.93 | 4.50 | 6.92 | 10.64 | 16.35 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1.01 | 0.58 | 28.58 | 37.83 | 8.32 | 39.96 | 61.42 | 94.43 | 145.17 | 223.16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 2.49 | 0.66 | 2.05 | 3.98 | 3.07 | 8.80 | 13.52 | 20.79 | 31.95 | 49.12 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.82 | 0.92 | 2.60 | 5.30 | 3.34 | 7.34 | 11.29 | 17.35 | 26.68 | 41.01 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.18 | -0.37 | -0.74 | -0.88 | -0.95 | -1.89 | -2.91 | -4.47 | -6.87 | -10.56 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 4.54 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.790 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 16 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.20 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.15% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.760 |
| Total Debt | 7.54 |
| Total Equity | 72.65 |
| Total Capital | 80.19 |
| Debt Weighting | 9.41 |
| Equity Weighting | 90.59 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 77.31 | 109.62 | 176.78 | 330.23 | 412.96 | 634.85 | 975.96 | 1,500.35 | 2,306.50 | 3,545.80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -1.51 | -3.93 | -1.10 | -12.98 | -22.21 | -19.64 | -30.20 | -46.43 | -71.37 | -109.72 |
| EBIT | -1.53 | -3.99 | -1.27 | -15.73 | -27.56 | -22.57 | -34.70 | -53.35 | -82.01 | -126.07 |
| Tax Rate | -1.66% | 0.20% | 0.63% | 20.63% | 0.20% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| EBIAT | -1.56 | -3.98 | -1.26 | -12.49 | -27.51 | -21.67 | -33.31 | -51.21 | -78.73 | -121.03 |
| Depreciation | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 2.75 | 5.35 | 2.93 | 4.50 | 6.92 | 10.64 | 16.35 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 1.82 | -1.38 | -1.94 | 0.91 | -5.72 | -4.73 | -7.26 | -11.17 | -17.17 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.10 | 1.67 | 2.71 | -1.96 | 4 | 3.95 | 6.07 | 9.32 | 14.33 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.18 | -0.37 | -0.74 | -0.88 | -0.94 | -1.89 | -2.91 | -4.47 | -6.87 | -10.56 |
| UFCF | -1.72 | -2.37 | -1.54 | -9.84 | -24.16 | -22.35 | -32.50 | -49.96 | -76.81 | -118.07 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -20.20 | -26.53 | -36.86 | -51.20 | -71.12 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -205.92 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.67 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -120.44 |
| Terminal Value | -1,389.11 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -836.73 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,042.65 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -0.78 |
| Equity Value | -1,041.87 |
| Shares Outstanding | 16 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -65.11 |