Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Five Star Senior Living Inc. (FVE)

$2.94

+0.07 (+2.44%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -7.71 | 2.94 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,396.111,390.391,415.141,163.74934.59850.28773.58703.79640.30582.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 17.06-34.88-0.685.70-16.14-4.37-3.98-3.62-3.29-3
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -21.13-70.82-17.32-5.30-28.01-19.19-17.46-15.88-14.45-13.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 38.1935.9416.641111.8714.8113.4812.2611.1610.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 48.7849.6952.81104.3178.9147.9743.6439.7036.1232.86
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 43.4545.6139.72105.4650.9140.3236.6833.3730.3627.62
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 74.7369.6782.4523.4537.5237.7934.3831.2828.4525.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -71.09-48.98-57.49-5.43-9.44-24.07-21.90-19.92-18.13-16.49
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.94
Beta 1.025
Diluted Shares Outstanding 31.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.39
After-tax Cost of Debt 8.10%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.346
Total Debt 20.77
Total Equity 92.88
Total Capital 113.65
Debt Weighting 18.28
Equity Weighting 81.72
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,396.111,390.391,415.141,163.74934.59850.28773.58703.79640.30582.54
EBITDA 17.06-34.88-0.685.70-16.14-4.37-3.98-3.62-3.29-3
EBIT -21.13-70.82-17.32-5.30-28.01-19.19-17.46-15.88-14.45-13.15
Tax Rate 19.75%0.36%2.53%-9.57%-1.39%2.34%2.34%2.34%2.34%2.34%
EBIAT -16.96-70.56-16.89-5.80-28.40-18.74-17.05-15.51-14.11-12.84
Depreciation 38.1935.9416.641111.8714.8113.4812.2611.1610.15
Accounts Receivable --2.175.89-65.7454.5510.593.643.313.012.74
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --5.0712.78-58.9914.060.27-3.41-3.10-2.82-2.57
Capital Expenditure -71.09-48.98-57.49-5.43-9.44-24.07-21.90-19.92-18.13-16.49
UFCF -49.86-90.84-39.07-124.9642.65-17.14-25.24-22.96-20.89-19.01
WACC
PV UFCF -15.82-21.52-18.08-15.19-12.76
SUM PV UFCF -83.37

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.30
Free cash flow (t + 1) -19.39
Terminal Value -307.74
Present Value of Terminal Value -206.56

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -289.92
Net Debt -46.22
Equity Value -243.70
Shares Outstanding 31.59
Equity Value Per Share -7.71