Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Five Star Senior Living Inc. (FVE)
$2.94
+0.07 (+2.44%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,396.11 | 1,390.39 | 1,415.14 | 1,163.74 | 934.59 | 850.28 | 773.58 | 703.79 | 640.30 | 582.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 17.06 | -34.88 | -0.68 | 5.70 | -16.14 | -4.37 | -3.98 | -3.62 | -3.29 | -3 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -21.13 | -70.82 | -17.32 | -5.30 | -28.01 | -19.19 | -17.46 | -15.88 | -14.45 | -13.15 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 38.19 | 35.94 | 16.64 | 11 | 11.87 | 14.81 | 13.48 | 12.26 | 11.16 | 10.15 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 48.78 | 49.69 | 52.81 | 104.31 | 78.91 | 47.97 | 43.64 | 39.70 | 36.12 | 32.86 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 43.45 | 45.61 | 39.72 | 105.46 | 50.91 | 40.32 | 36.68 | 33.37 | 30.36 | 27.62 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 74.73 | 69.67 | 82.45 | 23.45 | 37.52 | 37.79 | 34.38 | 31.28 | 28.45 | 25.89 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -71.09 | -48.98 | -57.49 | -5.43 | -9.44 | -24.07 | -21.90 | -19.92 | -18.13 | -16.49 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.94 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.025 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 31.59 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.79 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 8.10% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.949 |
| Total Debt | 20.77 |
| Total Equity | 92.88 |
| Total Capital | 113.65 |
| Debt Weighting | 18.28 |
| Equity Weighting | 81.72 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,396.11 | 1,390.39 | 1,415.14 | 1,163.74 | 934.59 | 850.28 | 773.58 | 703.79 | 640.30 | 582.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 17.06 | -34.88 | -0.68 | 5.70 | -16.14 | -4.37 | -3.98 | -3.62 | -3.29 | -3 |
| EBIT | -21.13 | -70.82 | -17.32 | -5.30 | -28.01 | -19.19 | -17.46 | -15.88 | -14.45 | -13.15 |
| Tax Rate | 19.75% | 0.36% | 2.53% | -9.57% | -0.79% | 2.46% | 2.46% | 2.46% | 2.46% | 2.46% |
| EBIAT | -16.96 | -70.56 | -16.89 | -5.80 | -28.23 | -18.72 | -17.03 | -15.49 | -14.09 | -12.82 |
| Depreciation | 38.19 | 35.94 | 16.64 | 11 | 11.87 | 14.81 | 13.48 | 12.26 | 11.16 | 10.15 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -2.17 | 5.89 | -65.74 | 54.55 | 10.59 | 3.64 | 3.31 | 3.01 | 2.74 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -5.07 | 12.78 | -58.99 | 14.06 | 0.27 | -3.41 | -3.10 | -2.82 | -2.57 |
| Capital Expenditure | -71.09 | -48.98 | -57.49 | -5.43 | -9.44 | -24.07 | -21.90 | -19.92 | -18.13 | -16.49 |
| UFCF | -49.86 | -90.84 | -39.07 | -124.96 | 42.82 | -17.11 | -25.22 | -22.94 | -20.87 | -18.99 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -15.73 | -21.31 | -17.82 | -14.90 | -12.46 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -82.22 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.79 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -19.37 |
| Terminal Value | -285.29 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -187.22 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -269.44 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -46.22 |
| Equity Value | -223.22 |
| Shares Outstanding | 31.59 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -7.07 |