Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FVI.TO)

$5.26

-0.31 (-5.57%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -25.24 | 5.26 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 268.11263.30257.19278.97599.85778.881,011.331,313.161,705.082,213.95
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 149.15114.0491.42106.62241.98331.87430.92559.53726.52943.35
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -----331.87430.92559.53726.52943.35
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 213.13163.3383.40132.96107.51373.14484.51629.11816.861,060.65
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 36.5032.9050.2676.5578.20134.17174.22226.21293.72381.39
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 17.7514.3914.4735.2785.8269.5790.34117.30152.31197.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 13.5824.2240.9729.6182.5385110.37143.31186.08241.62
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -47.06-97.90-224.13-114.33-152.29-324.40-421.22-546.94-710.17-922.12
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.26
Beta 1.274
Diluted Shares Outstanding 249.44
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 46.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.06%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.530
Total Debt 186.89
Total Equity 1,312.07
Total Capital 1,498.96
Debt Weighting 12.47
Equity Weighting 87.53
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 268.11263.30257.19278.97599.85778.881,011.331,313.161,705.082,213.95
EBITDA 149.15114.0491.42106.62241.98331.87430.92559.53726.52943.35
EBIT -----331.87430.92559.53726.52943.35
Tax Rate 36.82%49.52%45.88%63.44%46.00%48.33%48.33%48.33%48.33%48.33%
EBIAT -----171.46222.64289.08375.36487.39
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable -3.59-17.36-26.29-1.64-55.97-40.04-51.99-67.51-87.66
Inventories -3.37-0.08-20.80-50.5516.24-20.76-26.96-35.01-45.46
Accounts Payable -10.6416.75-11.3652.922.4725.3732.9442.7755.54
Capital Expenditure -47.06-97.90-224.13-114.33-152.29-324.40-421.22-546.94-710.17-922.12
UFCF ------190.20-234.02-303.87-394.56-512.31
WACC
PV UFCF -174.74-197.52-235.61-281.06-335.27
SUM PV UFCF -1,224.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.85
Free cash flow (t + 1) -522.56
Terminal Value -7,628.58
Present Value of Terminal Value -4,992.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -6,216.50
Net Debt 79.80
Equity Value -6,296.30
Shares Outstanding 249.44
Equity Value Per Share -25.24