Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
German American Bancorp, Inc. (GABC)
$27.22
-0.19 (-0.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 151.68 | 190.73 | 209.72 | 220.29 | 259.72 | 297.79 | 341.45 | 391.50 | 448.89 | 514.70 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 81.38 | 74.96 | 84.47 | 105.52 | 121.23 | 135.68 | 155.57 | 178.38 | 204.52 | 234.51 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 75.20 | 66.33 | 75.04 | 96.75 | 111.11 | 123.19 | 141.25 | 161.95 | 185.69 | 212.92 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 6.18 | 8.63 | 9.43 | 8.77 | 10.12 | 12.49 | 14.32 | 16.42 | 18.83 | 21.59 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 877.41 | 105.87 | 346.99 | 397.63 | 119.58 | 611.05 | 700.63 | 803.34 | 921.10 | 1,056.13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 35.32 | 44.21 | 43.99 | 43.51 | 123.97 | 80.36 | 92.14 | 105.65 | 121.14 | 138.90 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 21.41 | 44.14 | 51.81 | 43.58 | 43.74 | 58.72 | 67.33 | 77.20 | 88.51 | 101.49 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -15.19 | -9.37 | -7.07 | -4.69 | -7.85 | -13.97 | -16.01 | -18.36 | -21.05 | -24.14 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 27.22 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.663 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 26.55 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.50 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.565 |
| Total Debt | 228.81 |
| Total Equity | 722.58 |
| Total Capital | 951.38 |
| Debt Weighting | 24.05 |
| Equity Weighting | 75.95 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 151.68 | 190.73 | 209.72 | 220.29 | 259.72 | 297.79 | 341.45 | 391.50 | 448.89 | 514.70 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 81.38 | 74.96 | 84.47 | 105.52 | 121.23 | 135.68 | 155.57 | 178.38 | 204.52 | 234.51 |
| EBIT | 75.20 | 66.33 | 75.04 | 96.75 | 111.11 | 123.19 | 141.25 | 161.95 | 185.69 | 212.92 |
| Tax Rate | 17.00% | 16.87% | 17.10% | 18.14% | 17.50% | 17.32% | 17.32% | 17.32% | 17.32% | 17.32% |
| EBIAT | 62.41 | 55.14 | 62.21 | 79.19 | 91.67 | 101.85 | 116.78 | 133.90 | 153.53 | 176.04 |
| Depreciation | 6.18 | 8.63 | 9.43 | 8.77 | 10.12 | 12.49 | 14.32 | 16.42 | 18.83 | 21.59 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -8.89 | 0.22 | 0.48 | -80.45 | 43.61 | -11.78 | -13.51 | -15.49 | -17.76 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 22.74 | 7.66 | -8.23 | 0.16 | 14.98 | 8.61 | 9.87 | 11.32 | 12.98 |
| Capital Expenditure | -15.19 | -9.37 | -7.07 | -4.69 | -7.85 | -13.97 | -16.01 | -18.36 | -21.05 | -24.14 |
| UFCF | 53.41 | 68.25 | 72.45 | 75.52 | 13.64 | 158.96 | 111.92 | 128.32 | 147.14 | 168.71 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 148.09 | 97.14 | 103.76 | 110.83 | 118.39 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 578.21 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.34 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 172.08 |
| Terminal Value | 3,222.49 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,261.43 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,839.65 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 151.63 |
| Equity Value | 2,688.01 |
| Shares Outstanding | 26.55 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 101.26 |