Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Gaia, Inc. (GAIA)
$2.555
+0.01 (+0.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 43.84 | 53.98 | 66.83 | 79.57 | 82.03 | 96.20 | 112.82 | 132.31 | 155.16 | 181.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -28.75 | -8.51 | 18.07 | 14.60 | 13.31 | -3.79 | -4.45 | -5.22 | -6.12 | -7.18 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -35.74 | -18.10 | 6.03 | 1.46 | -2.63 | -20.67 | -24.24 | -28.42 | -33.33 | -39.09 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 6.99 | 9.59 | 12.04 | 13.14 | 15.94 | 16.87 | 19.79 | 23.20 | 27.21 | 31.91 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 29.96 | 11.49 | 12.61 | 10.27 | 11.56 | 26.07 | 30.57 | 35.85 | 42.05 | 49.31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1.33 | 2.31 | 2.02 | 2.73 | 2.95 | 3.34 | 3.92 | 4.60 | 5.39 | 6.33 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 5.29 | 6.62 | 4.83 | 9.08 | 7.38 | 10 | 11.73 | 13.76 | 16.13 | 18.92 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -18.86 | -18.70 | -13.33 | -17.34 | -18.26 | -27.25 | -31.96 | -37.48 | -43.96 | -51.55 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.555 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.994 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 20.72 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -22.19 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.20% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.432 |
| Total Debt | 22.34 |
| Total Equity | 52.93 |
| Total Capital | 75.27 |
| Debt Weighting | 29.68 |
| Equity Weighting | 70.32 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 43.84 | 53.98 | 66.83 | 79.57 | 82.03 | 96.20 | 112.82 | 132.31 | 155.16 | 181.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -28.75 | -8.51 | 18.07 | 14.60 | 13.31 | -3.79 | -4.45 | -5.22 | -6.12 | -7.18 |
| EBIT | -35.74 | -18.10 | 6.03 | 1.46 | -2.63 | -20.67 | -24.24 | -28.42 | -33.33 | -39.09 |
| Tax Rate | 5.44% | -1.70% | 25.75% | -116.92% | -22.19% | -21.92% | -21.92% | -21.92% | -21.92% | -21.92% |
| EBIAT | -33.79 | -18.41 | 4.47 | 3.16 | -3.21 | -25.20 | -29.55 | -34.65 | -40.64 | -47.66 |
| Depreciation | 6.99 | 9.59 | 12.04 | 13.14 | 15.94 | 16.87 | 19.79 | 23.20 | 27.21 | 31.91 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.98 | 0.29 | -0.70 | -0.23 | -0.39 | -0.58 | -0.68 | -0.79 | -0.93 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.33 | -1.79 | 4.25 | -1.70 | 2.62 | 1.73 | 2.03 | 2.38 | 2.79 |
| Capital Expenditure | -18.86 | -18.70 | -13.33 | -17.34 | -18.26 | -27.25 | -31.96 | -37.48 | -43.96 | -51.55 |
| UFCF | -45.66 | -27.17 | 1.69 | 2.50 | -7.45 | -33.35 | -40.57 | -47.58 | -55.80 | -65.44 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -31.38 | -35.91 | -39.62 | -43.72 | -48.24 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -198.87 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.29 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -66.75 |
| Terminal Value | -1,555.88 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,146.87 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,345.74 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 10.78 |
| Equity Value | -1,356.52 |
| Shares Outstanding | 20.72 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -65.48 |