Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Gaia, Inc. (GAIA)

$2.58

+0.08 (+3.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -95.98 | 2.58 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 43.8453.9866.8379.5782.0396.20112.82132.31155.16181.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -36.09-17.20-4.632.70-0.22-22.70-26.62-31.22-36.61-42.94
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -43.08-26.80-16.67-10.44-16.15-39.57-46.41-54.42-63.82-74.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6.999.5912.0413.1415.9416.8719.7923.2027.2131.91
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 29.9611.4912.6110.2711.5626.0730.5735.8542.0549.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1.332.312.022.732.953.343.924.605.396.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.296.624.839.087.381011.7313.7616.1318.92
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -18.86-18.70-13.33-17.34-18.26-27.25-31.96-37.48-43.96-51.55
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.58
Beta 0.956
Diluted Shares Outstanding 20.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -7.97
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.20%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.056
Total Debt 22.34
Total Equity 53.45
Total Capital 75.79
Debt Weighting 29.48
Equity Weighting 70.52
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 43.8453.9866.8379.5782.0396.20112.82132.31155.16181.96
EBITDA -36.09-17.20-4.632.70-0.22-22.70-26.62-31.22-36.61-42.94
EBIT -43.08-26.80-16.67-10.44-16.15-39.57-46.41-54.42-63.82-74.84
Tax Rate 5.44%-0.25%25.75%-116.92%-7.97%-18.79%-18.79%-18.79%-18.79%-18.79%
EBIAT -40.74-26.87-12.38-22.65-17.44-47.01-55.13-64.65-75.81-88.91
Depreciation 6.999.5912.0413.1415.9416.8719.7923.2027.2131.91
Accounts Receivable --0.980.29-0.70-0.23-0.39-0.58-0.68-0.79-0.93
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -1.33-1.794.25-1.702.621.732.032.382.79
Capital Expenditure -18.86-18.70-13.33-17.34-18.26-27.25-31.96-37.48-43.96-51.55
UFCF -52.61-35.62-15.16-23.30-21.69-55.16-66.15-77.58-90.98-106.69
WACC
PV UFCF -51.68-58.06-63.79-70.09-77
SUM PV UFCF -320.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.74
Free cash flow (t + 1) -108.83
Terminal Value -2,295.90
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,656.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,977.60
Net Debt 10.78
Equity Value -1,988.38
Shares Outstanding 20.72
Equity Value Per Share -95.98