Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Gaia, Inc. (GAIA)
$2.58
+0.08 (+3.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 43.84 | 53.98 | 66.83 | 79.57 | 82.03 | 96.20 | 112.82 | 132.31 | 155.16 | 181.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -36.09 | -17.20 | -4.63 | 2.70 | -0.22 | -22.70 | -26.62 | -31.22 | -36.61 | -42.94 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -43.08 | -26.80 | -16.67 | -10.44 | -16.15 | -39.57 | -46.41 | -54.42 | -63.82 | -74.84 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 6.99 | 9.59 | 12.04 | 13.14 | 15.94 | 16.87 | 19.79 | 23.20 | 27.21 | 31.91 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 29.96 | 11.49 | 12.61 | 10.27 | 11.56 | 26.07 | 30.57 | 35.85 | 42.05 | 49.31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1.33 | 2.31 | 2.02 | 2.73 | 2.95 | 3.34 | 3.92 | 4.60 | 5.39 | 6.33 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 5.29 | 6.62 | 4.83 | 9.08 | 7.38 | 10 | 11.73 | 13.76 | 16.13 | 18.92 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -18.86 | -18.70 | -13.33 | -17.34 | -18.26 | -27.25 | -31.96 | -37.48 | -43.96 | -51.55 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.58 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.956 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 20.72 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -7.97 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.20% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.056 |
| Total Debt | 22.34 |
| Total Equity | 53.45 |
| Total Capital | 75.79 |
| Debt Weighting | 29.48 |
| Equity Weighting | 70.52 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 43.84 | 53.98 | 66.83 | 79.57 | 82.03 | 96.20 | 112.82 | 132.31 | 155.16 | 181.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -36.09 | -17.20 | -4.63 | 2.70 | -0.22 | -22.70 | -26.62 | -31.22 | -36.61 | -42.94 |
| EBIT | -43.08 | -26.80 | -16.67 | -10.44 | -16.15 | -39.57 | -46.41 | -54.42 | -63.82 | -74.84 |
| Tax Rate | 5.44% | -0.25% | 25.75% | -116.92% | -7.97% | -18.79% | -18.79% | -18.79% | -18.79% | -18.79% |
| EBIAT | -40.74 | -26.87 | -12.38 | -22.65 | -17.44 | -47.01 | -55.13 | -64.65 | -75.81 | -88.91 |
| Depreciation | 6.99 | 9.59 | 12.04 | 13.14 | 15.94 | 16.87 | 19.79 | 23.20 | 27.21 | 31.91 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.98 | 0.29 | -0.70 | -0.23 | -0.39 | -0.58 | -0.68 | -0.79 | -0.93 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.33 | -1.79 | 4.25 | -1.70 | 2.62 | 1.73 | 2.03 | 2.38 | 2.79 |
| Capital Expenditure | -18.86 | -18.70 | -13.33 | -17.34 | -18.26 | -27.25 | -31.96 | -37.48 | -43.96 | -51.55 |
| UFCF | -52.61 | -35.62 | -15.16 | -23.30 | -21.69 | -55.16 | -66.15 | -77.58 | -90.98 | -106.69 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -51.68 | -58.06 | -63.79 | -70.09 | -77 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -320.62 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.74 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -108.83 |
| Terminal Value | -2,295.90 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,656.98 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,977.60 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 10.78 |
| Equity Value | -1,988.38 |
| Shares Outstanding | 20.72 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -95.98 |