Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

GATX Corporation (GATX)

$103.19

+0.51 (+0.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -245.94 | 103.19 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,376.901,360.901,393.801,209.201,257.401,232.241,207.591,183.431,159.751,136.55
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 581583.60783.60721.70778.70647.95634.98622.28609.83597.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 258.30245.40440.10378.90400.30324.17317.69311.33305.10299
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 322.70338.20343.50342.80378.40323.77317.30310.95304.73298.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 296.50100.20151292.20344.30224.95220.45216.04211.72207.48
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 213.10207171.20142.20163.80166.99163.65160.37157.16154.02
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 57.2063.7068.4064.305257.1756.0254.9053.8052.73
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable --149129.27134.42131.73129.09126.51123.98121.50
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -678.60-995.90-742.70-860.80-1,130.10-830.07-813.47-797.19-781.24-765.61
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 103.19
Beta 0.996
Diluted Shares Outstanding 36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.65
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.41%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.581
Total Debt 6,193.30
Total Equity 3,714.84
Total Capital 9,908.14
Debt Weighting 62.51
Equity Weighting 37.49
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,376.901,360.901,393.801,209.201,257.401,232.241,207.591,183.431,159.751,136.55
EBITDA 581583.60783.60721.70778.70647.95634.98622.28609.83597.63
EBIT 258.30245.40440.10378.90400.30324.17317.69311.33305.10299
Tax Rate -134.14%-8.30%-15.35%-20.75%26.65%-30.38%-30.38%-30.38%-30.38%-30.38%
EBIAT 604.79265.78507.64457.52293.61422.65414.19405.91397.79389.83
Depreciation 322.70338.20343.50342.80378.40323.77317.30310.95304.73298.63
Accounts Receivable -6.1035.8029-21.60-3.193.343.273.213.14
Inventories --6.50-4.704.1012.30-5.171.141.121.101.08
Accounts Payable ----19.735.15-2.69-2.64-2.58-2.53-2.48
Capital Expenditure -678.60-995.90-742.70-860.80-1,130.10-830.07-813.47-797.19-781.24-765.61
UFCF 248.89-392.32139.54-47.11-462.24-94.69-80.13-78.52-76.95-75.41
WACC
PV UFCF -90.74-73.59-69.11-64.90-60.95
SUM PV UFCF -359.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.35
Free cash flow (t + 1) -76.92
Terminal Value -3,273.24
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,645.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -3,004.83
Net Debt 5,849
Equity Value -8,853.83
Shares Outstanding 36
Equity Value Per Share -245.94