Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)

$32.17

+0.24 (+0.75%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -1,738.65 | 32.17 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,519.46	3,033.59	2,792.19	1,747.98	2,977.70	3,315.68	3,692.03	4,111.09	4,577.72	5,097.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	289.98	228.66	241.39	137.63	109.60	260.26	289.80	322.69	359.32	400.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	215.62	144.92	131.54	36.91	7.60	135.37	150.73	167.84	186.89	208.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	74.36	83.73	109.85	100.72	102	124.89	139.06	154.85	172.42	191.99
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	530.66	329.68	833.75	646.77	543.09	776.07	864.15	962.24	1,071.46	1,193.07
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	348.41	373.38	239.60	418.54	541	509.49	567.32	631.71	703.42	783.26
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	432.31	664.69	529.53	573.59	815.30	784.02	873.01	972.11	1,082.44	1,205.31
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	226.41	302.01	148.97	265.12	293.63	326.96	364.08	405.40	451.41	502.65
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-176.85	-198.23	-66.88	-139.01	-380.70	-243.28	-270.90	-301.65	-335.88	-374.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 32.17
Beta	1.495
Diluted Shares Outstanding	33.63
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.61
After-tax Cost of Debt	-2.84%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.548
Total Debt	1,565.70
Total Equity	1,081.91
Total Capital	2,647.61
Debt Weighting	59.14
Equity Weighting	40.86
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,519.46	3,033.59	2,792.19	1,747.98	2,977.70	3,315.68	3,692.03	4,111.09	4,577.72	5,097.31
EBITDA	289.98	228.66	241.39	137.63	109.60	260.26	289.80	322.69	359.32	400.10
EBIT	215.62	144.92	131.54	36.91	7.60	135.37	150.73	167.84	186.89	208.10
Tax Rate	32.12%	53.61%	60.77%	478.52%	22.61%	129.53%	129.53%	129.53%	129.53%	129.53%
EBIAT	146.35	67.23	51.61	-139.71	5.88	-39.97	-44.50	-49.56	-55.18	-61.44
Depreciation	74.36	83.73	109.85	100.72	102	124.89	139.06	154.85	172.42	191.99
Accounts Receivable	-	-24.98	133.79	-178.94	-122.46	31.51	-57.83	-64.39	-71.70	-79.84
Inventories	-	-232.38	135.16	-44.06	-241.71	31.28	-88.99	-99.09	-110.34	-122.86
Accounts Payable	-	75.60	-153.04	116.15	28.51	33.33	37.11	41.32	46.01	51.24
Capital Expenditure	-176.85	-198.23	-66.88	-139.01	-380.70	-243.28	-270.90	-301.65	-335.88	-374.01
UFCF	43.86	-229.02	210.49	-284.86	-608.47	-62.25	-286.05	-318.51	-354.67	-394.92
WACC
PV UFCF						-60.65	-271.57	-294.65	-319.69	-346.85
SUM PV UFCF										-1,293.41

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	2.63
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-402.82
Terminal Value	-63,939.82
Present Value of Terminal Value	-56,156.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-57,449.87
Net Debt	1,022.70
Equity Value	-58,472.57
Shares Outstanding	33.63
Equity Value Per Share	-1,738.65