Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)

$31.72

+0.65 (+2.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1,482.70 | 31.72 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,519.463,033.592,792.191,747.982,977.703,315.683,692.034,111.094,577.725,097.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 289.98228.66241.39137.63109.60260.26289.80322.69359.32400.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 215.62144.92131.5436.917.60135.37150.73167.84186.89208.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 74.3683.73109.85100.72102124.89139.06154.85172.42191.99
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 530.66329.68833.75646.77543.09776.07864.15962.241,071.461,193.07
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 348.41373.38239.60418.54541509.49567.32631.71703.42783.26
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 432.31664.69529.53573.59815.30784.02873.01972.111,082.441,205.31
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 226.41302.01148.97265.12293.63326.96364.08405.40451.41502.65
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -176.85-198.23-66.88-139.01-380.70-243.28-270.90-301.65-335.88-374.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 31.72
Beta 1.536
Diluted Shares Outstanding 33.63
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.61
After-tax Cost of Debt -2.84%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.924
Total Debt 1,565.70
Total Equity 1,066.78
Total Capital 2,632.48
Debt Weighting 59.48
Equity Weighting 40.52
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,519.463,033.592,792.191,747.982,977.703,315.683,692.034,111.094,577.725,097.31
EBITDA 289.98228.66241.39137.63109.60260.26289.80322.69359.32400.10
EBIT 215.62144.92131.5436.917.60135.37150.73167.84186.89208.10
Tax Rate 32.12%53.61%60.77%478.52%22.61%129.53%129.53%129.53%129.53%129.53%
EBIAT 146.3567.2351.61-139.715.88-39.97-44.50-49.56-55.18-61.44
Depreciation 74.3683.73109.85100.72102124.89139.06154.85172.42191.99
Accounts Receivable --24.98133.79-178.94-122.4631.51-57.83-64.39-71.70-79.84
Inventories --232.38135.16-44.06-241.7131.28-88.99-99.09-110.34-122.86
Accounts Payable -75.60-153.04116.1528.5133.3337.1141.3246.0151.24
Capital Expenditure -176.85-198.23-66.88-139.01-380.70-243.28-270.90-301.65-335.88-374.01
UFCF 43.86-229.02210.49-284.86-608.47-62.25-286.05-318.51-354.67-394.92
WACC
PV UFCF -60.59-270.99-293.70-318.32-345
SUM PV UFCF -1,288.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.74
Free cash flow (t + 1) -402.82
Terminal Value -54,435.25
Present Value of Terminal Value -47,553.49

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -48,842.09
Net Debt 1,022.70
Equity Value -49,864.79
Shares Outstanding 33.63
Equity Value Per Share -1,482.70