Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Guardian Capital Group Limited (GCG-A.TO)
$30.3
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 244.08 | 275.14 | 291.62 | 325.18 | 414.91 | 474.89 | 543.54 | 622.10 | 712.03 | 814.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 114.24 | 0.90 | 160.40 | 70 | 240.79 | 172.57 | 197.51 | 226.06 | 258.74 | 296.14 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 110.02 | -9.36 | 146.28 | 51.82 | 219.30 | 152.56 | 174.61 | 199.85 | 228.74 | 261.81 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 4.21 | 10.26 | 14.12 | 18.18 | 21.49 | 20.01 | 22.90 | 26.21 | 30 | 34.34 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 101.52 | 94.09 | 141.45 | 84.87 | 131.59 | 172.97 | 197.97 | 226.59 | 259.34 | 296.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 102.45 | 104.83 | 101.69 | 138.72 | 177.35 | 190.29 | 217.79 | 249.27 | 285.31 | 326.55 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 104.38 | 103.60 | 109 | 143.14 | 194.12 | 198.12 | 226.76 | 259.54 | 297.05 | 339.99 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -5.88 | -30.44 | -13.77 | -9.64 | -15.42 | -23.62 | -27.04 | -30.95 | -35.42 | -40.54 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 30.3 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.204 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 27.11 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.90 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.89% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.570 |
| Total Debt | 129.26 |
| Total Equity | 821.46 |
| Total Capital | 950.73 |
| Debt Weighting | 13.60 |
| Equity Weighting | 86.40 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 244.08 | 275.14 | 291.62 | 325.18 | 414.91 | 474.89 | 543.54 | 622.10 | 712.03 | 814.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 114.24 | 0.90 | 160.40 | 70 | 240.79 | 172.57 | 197.51 | 226.06 | 258.74 | 296.14 |
| EBIT | 110.02 | -9.36 | 146.28 | 51.82 | 219.30 | 152.56 | 174.61 | 199.85 | 228.74 | 261.81 |
| Tax Rate | 15.37% | -82.97% | 15.44% | 20.87% | 17.90% | -2.68% | -2.68% | -2.68% | -2.68% | -2.68% |
| EBIAT | 93.12 | -17.12 | 123.69 | 41 | 180.04 | 156.64 | 179.29 | 205.20 | 234.87 | 268.82 |
| Depreciation | 4.21 | 10.26 | 14.12 | 18.18 | 21.49 | 20.01 | 22.90 | 26.21 | 30 | 34.34 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -2.37 | 3.14 | -37.03 | -38.63 | -12.93 | -27.51 | -31.48 | -36.03 | -41.24 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.78 | 5.41 | 34.14 | 50.98 | 4 | 28.64 | 32.78 | 37.52 | 42.94 |
| Capital Expenditure | -5.88 | -30.44 | -13.77 | -9.63 | -15.42 | -23.62 | -27.04 | -30.95 | -35.42 | -40.54 |
| UFCF | 91.45 | -40.46 | 132.58 | 46.66 | 198.46 | 144.10 | 176.28 | 201.77 | 230.93 | 264.31 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 134.01 | 152.46 | 162.28 | 172.73 | 183.85 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 805.32 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.53 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 269.60 |
| Terminal Value | 4,875.18 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,391.11 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 4,196.44 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 52.18 |
| Equity Value | 4,144.25 |
| Shares Outstanding | 27.11 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 152.86 |