Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Guardian Capital Group Limited (GCG-A.TO)
$42.72
-0.52 (-1.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 275.14 | 291.62 | 325.18 | 414.91 | 214.34 | 212.60 | 210.87 | 209.16 | 207.46 | 205.78 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 60.35 | 67.03 | 75.02 | 104.67 | 72.78 | 54.07 | 53.63 | 53.20 | 52.77 | 52.34 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 50.09 | 52.92 | 56.84 | 83.18 | 48.47 | 41.03 | 40.70 | 40.37 | 40.04 | 39.71 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 10.26 | 14.12 | 18.18 | 21.49 | 24.30 | 13.04 | 12.94 | 12.83 | 12.73 | 12.63 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 94.09 | 141.45 | 84.87 | 131.59 | 122.34 | 84.02 | 83.34 | 82.66 | 81.99 | 81.32 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 104.83 | 101.69 | 138.72 | 177.35 | 54.40 | 78.13 | 77.50 | 76.87 | 76.24 | 75.62 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | 297.22 | 294.81 | 292.41 | 290.04 | 287.68 | 285.35 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 103.60 | 109 | 143.14 | 194.12 | 79.77 | 86.34 | 85.64 | 84.94 | 84.25 | 83.57 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -30.44 | -13.77 | -9.64 | -15.42 | -16.72 | -12.87 | -12.76 | -12.66 | -12.56 | -12.45 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 42.72 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.063 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 24.43 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.87 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.75% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.577 |
Total Debt | 157.07 |
Total Equity | 1,043.48 |
Total Capital | 1,200.55 |
Debt Weighting | 13.08 |
Equity Weighting | 86.92 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 275.14 | 291.62 | 325.18 | 414.91 | 214.34 | 212.60 | 210.87 | 209.16 | 207.46 | 205.78 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 60.35 | 67.03 | 75.02 | 104.67 | 72.78 | 54.07 | 53.63 | 53.20 | 52.77 | 52.34 |
EBIT | 50.09 | 52.92 | 56.84 | 83.18 | 48.47 | 41.03 | 40.70 | 40.37 | 40.04 | 39.71 |
Tax Rate | -82.97% | 15.44% | 20.87% | 17.90% | 0.87% | -5.58% | -5.58% | -5.58% | -5.58% | -5.58% |
EBIAT | 91.65 | 44.74 | 44.98 | 68.29 | 48.05 | 43.32 | 42.96 | 42.62 | 42.27 | 41.93 |
Depreciation | 10.26 | 14.12 | 18.18 | 21.49 | 24.30 | 13.04 | 12.94 | 12.83 | 12.73 | 12.63 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 3.14 | -37.03 | -38.63 | 122.95 | -23.73 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | 2.41 | 2.39 | 2.37 | 2.36 | 2.34 |
Accounts Payable | - | 5.41 | 34.14 | 50.98 | -114.35 | 6.57 | -0.70 | -0.70 | -0.69 | -0.68 |
Capital Expenditure | -30.44 | -13.77 | -9.63 | -15.42 | -16.72 | -12.87 | -12.76 | -12.66 | -12.56 | -12.45 |
UFCF | 71.47 | 53.63 | 50.64 | 86.71 | 64.24 | 28.74 | 45.47 | 45.10 | 44.73 | 44.37 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 26.45 | 38.50 | 35.13 | 32.06 | 29.26 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 161.40 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.68 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 45.26 |
Terminal Value | 677.50 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 446.85 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 608.25 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 102.17 |
Equity Value | 506.08 |
Shares Outstanding | 24.43 |
Equity Value Per Share | 20.72 |