Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Guardian Capital Group Limited (GCG-A.TO)

$42.72

-0.52 (-1.20%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 20.72 | 42.72 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	275.14	291.62	325.18	414.91	214.34	212.60	210.87	209.16	207.46	205.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	60.35	67.03	75.02	104.67	72.78	54.07	53.63	53.20	52.77	52.34
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	50.09	52.92	56.84	83.18	48.47	41.03	40.70	40.37	40.04	39.71
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	10.26	14.12	18.18	21.49	24.30	13.04	12.94	12.83	12.73	12.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	94.09	141.45	84.87	131.59	122.34	84.02	83.34	82.66	81.99	81.32
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	104.83	101.69	138.72	177.35	54.40	78.13	77.50	76.87	76.24	75.62
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	297.22	294.81	292.41	290.04	287.68	285.35
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	103.60	109	143.14	194.12	79.77	86.34	85.64	84.94	84.25	83.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-30.44	-13.77	-9.64	-15.42	-16.72	-12.87	-12.76	-12.66	-12.56	-12.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 42.72
Beta	1.063
Diluted Shares Outstanding	24.43
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.87
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.75%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.577
Total Debt	157.07
Total Equity	1,043.48
Total Capital	1,200.55
Debt Weighting	13.08
Equity Weighting	86.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	275.14	291.62	325.18	414.91	214.34	212.60	210.87	209.16	207.46	205.78
EBITDA	60.35	67.03	75.02	104.67	72.78	54.07	53.63	53.20	52.77	52.34
EBIT	50.09	52.92	56.84	83.18	48.47	41.03	40.70	40.37	40.04	39.71
Tax Rate	-82.97%	15.44%	20.87%	17.90%	0.87%	-5.58%	-5.58%	-5.58%	-5.58%	-5.58%
EBIAT	91.65	44.74	44.98	68.29	48.05	43.32	42.96	42.62	42.27	41.93
Depreciation	10.26	14.12	18.18	21.49	24.30	13.04	12.94	12.83	12.73	12.63
Accounts Receivable	-	3.14	-37.03	-38.63	122.95	-23.73	0.63	0.63	0.62	0.62
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	2.41	2.39	2.37	2.36	2.34
Accounts Payable	-	5.41	34.14	50.98	-114.35	6.57	-0.70	-0.70	-0.69	-0.68
Capital Expenditure	-30.44	-13.77	-9.63	-15.42	-16.72	-12.87	-12.76	-12.66	-12.56	-12.45
UFCF	71.47	53.63	50.64	86.71	64.24	28.74	45.47	45.10	44.73	44.37
WACC
PV UFCF						26.45	38.50	35.13	32.06	29.26
SUM PV UFCF										161.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.68
Free cash flow (t + 1)	45.26
Terminal Value	677.50
Present Value of Terminal Value	446.85

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	608.25
Net Debt	102.17
Equity Value	506.08
Shares Outstanding	24.43
Equity Value Per Share	20.72