Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Guardian Capital Group Limited (GCG-A.TO)

$30.3

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 152.86 | 30.3 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 244.08275.14291.62325.18414.91474.89543.54622.10712.03814.95
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 114.240.90160.4070240.79172.57197.51226.06258.74296.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 110.02-9.36146.2851.82219.30152.56174.61199.85228.74261.81
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.2110.2614.1218.1821.4920.0122.9026.213034.34
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 101.5294.09141.4584.87131.59172.97197.97226.59259.34296.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 102.45104.83101.69138.72177.35190.29217.79249.27285.31326.55
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 104.38103.60109143.14194.12198.12226.76259.54297.05339.99
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5.88-30.44-13.77-9.64-15.42-23.62-27.04-30.95-35.42-40.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 30.3
Beta 1.204
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.11
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.90
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.570
Total Debt 129.26
Total Equity 821.46
Total Capital 950.73
Debt Weighting 13.60
Equity Weighting 86.40
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 244.08275.14291.62325.18414.91474.89543.54622.10712.03814.95
EBITDA 114.240.90160.4070240.79172.57197.51226.06258.74296.14
EBIT 110.02-9.36146.2851.82219.30152.56174.61199.85228.74261.81
Tax Rate 15.37%-82.97%15.44%20.87%17.90%-2.68%-2.68%-2.68%-2.68%-2.68%
EBIAT 93.12-17.12123.6941180.04156.64179.29205.20234.87268.82
Depreciation 4.2110.2614.1218.1821.4920.0122.9026.213034.34
Accounts Receivable --2.373.14-37.03-38.63-12.93-27.51-31.48-36.03-41.24
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --0.785.4134.1450.98428.6432.7837.5242.94
Capital Expenditure -5.88-30.44-13.77-9.63-15.42-23.62-27.04-30.95-35.42-40.54
UFCF 91.45-40.46132.5846.66198.46144.10176.28201.77230.93264.31
WACC
PV UFCF 134.01152.46162.28172.73183.85
SUM PV UFCF 805.32

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.53
Free cash flow (t + 1) 269.60
Terminal Value 4,875.18
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,391.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,196.44
Net Debt 52.18
Equity Value 4,144.25
Shares Outstanding 27.11
Equity Value Per Share 152.86