Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Guardian Capital Group Limited (GCG-A.TO)

$42.72

-0.52 (-1.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 20.72 | 42.72 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 275.14291.62325.18414.91214.34212.60210.87209.16207.46205.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 60.3567.0375.02104.6772.7854.0753.6353.2052.7752.34
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 50.0952.9256.8483.1848.4741.0340.7040.3740.0439.71
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10.2614.1218.1821.4924.3013.0412.9412.8312.7312.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 94.09141.4584.87131.59122.3484.0283.3482.6681.9981.32
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 104.83101.69138.72177.3554.4078.1377.5076.8776.2475.62
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----297.22294.81292.41290.04287.68285.35
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 103.60109143.14194.1279.7786.3485.6484.9484.2583.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -30.44-13.77-9.64-15.42-16.72-12.87-12.76-12.66-12.56-12.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 42.72
Beta 1.063
Diluted Shares Outstanding 24.43
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.87
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.75%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.577
Total Debt 157.07
Total Equity 1,043.48
Total Capital 1,200.55
Debt Weighting 13.08
Equity Weighting 86.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 275.14291.62325.18414.91214.34212.60210.87209.16207.46205.78
EBITDA 60.3567.0375.02104.6772.7854.0753.6353.2052.7752.34
EBIT 50.0952.9256.8483.1848.4741.0340.7040.3740.0439.71
Tax Rate -82.97%15.44%20.87%17.90%0.87%-5.58%-5.58%-5.58%-5.58%-5.58%
EBIAT 91.6544.7444.9868.2948.0543.3242.9642.6242.2741.93
Depreciation 10.2614.1218.1821.4924.3013.0412.9412.8312.7312.63
Accounts Receivable -3.14-37.03-38.63122.95-23.730.630.630.620.62
Inventories -----2.412.392.372.362.34
Accounts Payable -5.4134.1450.98-114.356.57-0.70-0.70-0.69-0.68
Capital Expenditure -30.44-13.77-9.63-15.42-16.72-12.87-12.76-12.66-12.56-12.45
UFCF 71.4753.6350.6486.7164.2428.7445.4745.1044.7344.37
WACC
PV UFCF 26.4538.5035.1332.0629.26
SUM PV UFCF 161.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) 45.26
Terminal Value 677.50
Present Value of Terminal Value 446.85

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 608.25
Net Debt 102.17
Equity Value 506.08
Shares Outstanding 24.43
Equity Value Per Share 20.72