Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Gannett Co., Inc. (GCI)
$2.47
+0.02 (+0.82%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 1,342 | 1,526.02 | 1,867.91 | 3,405.67 | 3,208.08 | 4,111.48 | 5,269.26 | 6,753.08 | 8,654.74 | 11,091.90 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 104.44 | 140.97 | -30.29 | -211.60 | 252.99 | 140.38 | 179.90 | 230.57 | 295.49 | 378.70 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 30.04 | 56.18 | -142.18 | -475.42 | 49.04 | -116.13 | -148.83 | -190.74 | -244.45 | -313.29 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 74.39 | 84.79 | 111.88 | 263.82 | 203.96 | 256.50 | 328.73 | 421.31 | 539.95 | 691.99 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 43.06 | 48.65 | 156.04 | 170.73 | 130.76 | 196.03 | 251.23 | 321.97 | 412.64 | 528.84 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 151.69 | 174.27 | 438.52 | 314.30 | 328.73 | 540.05 | 692.13 | 887.03 | 1,136.82 | 1,456.95 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 18.65 | 25.02 | 55.09 | 35.07 | 37.66 | 67.29 | 86.24 | 110.52 | 141.64 | 181.53 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 15.75 | 16.61 | 147 | 131.80 | 112.30 | 143.92 | 184.45 | 236.39 | 302.95 | 388.26 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -11.09 | -11.64 | -13.98 | -36.97 | -39.56 | -38.29 | -49.07 | -62.89 | -80.60 | -103.29 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 2.47 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.523 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 239.45 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -53.50 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 9.13% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 15.440 |
Total Debt | 1,487.22 |
Total Equity | 591.45 |
Total Capital | 2,078.67 |
Debt Weighting | 71.55 |
Equity Weighting | 28.45 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 1,342 | 1,526.02 | 1,867.91 | 3,405.67 | 3,208.08 | 4,111.48 | 5,269.26 | 6,753.08 | 8,654.74 | 11,091.90 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 104.44 | 140.97 | -30.29 | -211.60 | 252.99 | 140.38 | 179.90 | 230.57 | 295.49 | 378.70 |
EBIT | 30.04 | 56.18 | -142.18 | -475.42 | 49.04 | -116.13 | -148.83 | -190.74 | -244.45 | -313.29 |
Tax Rate | -110.83% | 9.11% | 42.16% | 5.01% | -53.50% | -21.61% | -21.61% | -21.61% | -21.61% | -21.61% |
EBIAT | 63.34 | 51.06 | -82.24 | -451.59 | 75.27 | -141.23 | -181 | -231.96 | -297.28 | -381 |
Depreciation | 74.39 | 84.79 | 111.88 | 263.82 | 203.96 | 256.50 | 328.73 | 421.31 | 539.95 | 691.99 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -22.58 | -264.25 | 124.22 | -14.43 | -211.32 | -152.08 | -194.90 | -249.79 | -320.13 |
Inventories | - | -6.37 | -30.07 | 20.02 | -2.59 | -29.63 | -18.95 | -24.28 | -31.12 | -39.89 |
Accounts Payable | - | 0.86 | 130.38 | -15.20 | -19.50 | 31.62 | 40.53 | 51.94 | 66.57 | 85.31 |
Capital Expenditure | -11.09 | -11.64 | -13.98 | -36.98 | -39.56 | -38.29 | -49.07 | -62.89 | -80.60 | -103.29 |
UFCF | 126.64 | 96.13 | -148.27 | -95.72 | 203.15 | -132.33 | -31.83 | -40.79 | -52.28 | -67 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -119.29 | -25.87 | -29.88 | -34.52 | -39.89 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -249.45 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 10.93 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -68.34 |
Terminal Value | -765.29 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -455.60 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -705.05 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,356.47 |
Equity Value | -2,061.52 |
Shares Outstanding | 239.45 |
Equity Value Per Share | -8.61 |