Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Goodrich Petroleum Corporation (GDP)
$23.02
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 27.27 | 46.15 | 88 | 118.35 | 93.83 | 134.57 | 193 | 276.81 | 397.01 | 569.40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 378.86 | 0.75 | 13.64 | 76.26 | 10.70 | 398.96 | 572.20 | 820.66 | 1,177.01 | 1,688.11 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 378.86 | 0.75 | 13.64 | 24.29 | -37.09 | 335.13 | 480.66 | 689.37 | 988.72 | 1,418.05 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | 51.97 | 47.80 | 63.82 | 91.54 | 131.29 | 188.29 | 270.06 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 36.85 | 25.99 | 4.07 | 1.45 | 1.36 | 53.49 | 76.72 | 110.03 | 157.82 | 226.34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 5.14 | 6.33 | 15.21 | 12.48 | 11.10 | 19.44 | 27.88 | 39.98 | 57.34 | 82.24 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 4.12 | 2.52 | 0.60 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 5.81 | 8.34 | 11.96 | 17.15 | 24.60 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 14.39 | 14.78 | 25.30 | 25.94 | 26.60 | 44.09 | 63.24 | 90.70 | 130.09 | 186.58 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7.02 | -28.76 | -105.09 | -99.30 | -58.26 | -95.14 | -136.45 | -195.70 | -280.68 | -402.56 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 23.02 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.624 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12.23 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.29% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.467 |
| Total Debt | 112.09 |
| Total Equity | 281.60 |
| Total Capital | 393.70 |
| Debt Weighting | 28.47 |
| Equity Weighting | 71.53 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 27.27 | 46.15 | 88 | 118.35 | 93.83 | 134.57 | 193 | 276.81 | 397.01 | 569.40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 378.86 | 0.75 | 13.64 | 76.26 | 10.70 | 398.96 | 572.20 | 820.66 | 1,177.01 | 1,688.11 |
| EBIT | 378.86 | 0.75 | 13.64 | 24.29 | -37.09 | 335.13 | 480.66 | 689.37 | 988.72 | 1,418.05 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 10.90% | -3.37% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.51% | 1.51% | 1.51% | 1.51% | 1.51% |
| EBIAT | 378.86 | 0.67 | 14.10 | 24.29 | -37.09 | 330.09 | 473.42 | 678.99 | 973.83 | 1,396.69 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | 51.97 | 47.80 | 63.82 | 91.54 | 131.29 | 188.29 | 270.06 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.19 | -8.88 | 2.73 | 1.38 | -8.34 | -8.44 | -12.10 | -17.36 | -24.90 |
| Inventories | - | 1.60 | 1.92 | 0.36 | 0.10 | -5.68 | -2.52 | -3.62 | -5.19 | -7.45 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.39 | 10.51 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 17.49 | 19.15 | 27.46 | 39.39 | 56.49 |
| Capital Expenditure | -7.02 | -28.76 | -105.09 | -99.30 | -58.26 | -95.14 | -136.45 | -195.70 | -280.68 | -402.56 |
| UFCF | 371.84 | -27.29 | -87.43 | -19.30 | -45.42 | 302.24 | 436.69 | 626.31 | 898.27 | 1,288.33 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 273 | 356.29 | 461.56 | 597.95 | 774.63 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 2,463.43 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.71 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,314.10 |
| Terminal Value | 15,087.24 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 9,071.43 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 11,534.85 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 110.73 |
| Equity Value | 11,424.12 |
| Shares Outstanding | 12.23 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 933.88 |