Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Geospace Technologies Corporation (GEOS)

$4.81

+0.05 (+1.05%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -15.92 | 4.81 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 73.7275.7595.8187.8494.86101.72109.07116.96125.41134.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -36.30-5.0421.717.147.30-3.54-3.80-4.08-4.37-4.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -54.07-19.462.37-16.56-13.48-26.37-28.27-30.32-32.51-34.86
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 17.7714.4119.3423.6920.7822.8224.4726.2428.1430.17
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 51.2337.4118.9232.6923.5640.8343.7846.9450.3353.97
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 12.7618.5827.4313.7818.2121.4322.9824.6426.4228.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 20.7518.8123.8616.9316.2023.2424.9226.7228.6530.72
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.604.114.051.596.394.424.745.085.455.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.63-8.23-36.01-8.40-5.31-13.39-14.36-15.40-16.51-17.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.81
Beta 1.599
Diluted Shares Outstanding 13.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -4.29
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.396
Total Debt 1.23
Total Equity 64.26
Total Capital 65.49
Debt Weighting 1.88
Equity Weighting 98.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 73.7275.7595.8187.8494.86101.72109.07116.96125.41134.48
EBITDA -36.30-5.0421.717.147.30-3.54-3.80-4.08-4.37-4.69
EBIT -54.07-19.462.37-16.56-13.48-26.37-28.27-30.32-32.51-34.86
Tax Rate -4.96%2.93%106.43%-15.96%-4.29%16.83%16.83%16.83%16.83%16.83%
EBIAT -56.75-18.89-0.15-19.20-14.06-21.93-23.52-25.22-27.04-28.99
Depreciation 17.7714.4119.3423.6920.7822.8224.4726.2428.1430.17
Accounts Receivable --5.82-8.8413.65-4.43-3.22-1.55-1.66-1.78-1.91
Inventories -1.94-5.046.920.74-7.04-1.68-1.80-1.93-2.07
Accounts Payable -1.51-0.05-2.464.80-1.970.320.340.370.39
Capital Expenditure -1.63-8.23-36.01-8.40-5.31-13.39-14.36-15.40-16.51-17.70
UFCF -40.62-15.08-30.7614.202.52-24.74-16.31-17.49-18.76-20.11
WACC
PV UFCF -22.43-13.41-13.04-12.68-12.32
SUM PV UFCF -73.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.29
Free cash flow (t + 1) -20.51
Terminal Value -247.45
Present Value of Terminal Value -151.64

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -225.52
Net Debt -12.83
Equity Value -212.68
Shares Outstanding 13.36
Equity Value Per Share -15.92