Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Guess', Inc. (GES)

$22.75

-0.05 (-0.22%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -5.21 | 22.75 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,363.752,609.692,678.111,876.532,591.632,729.012,873.673,025.993,186.393,355.30
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 132.30115.41206.80-1.20324.86164.90173.64182.84192.54202.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 68.7147.05134.62-64.70268.0690.7895.59100.66105.99111.61
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 63.5968.3672.1963.5056.8074.1278.0582.1986.5591.13
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 367.44210.46284.61469.11415.56410.83432.60455.54479.68505.11
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 260322327.28314.15328.86354.71373.51393.31414.16436.11
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 428.30468.90393.13389.14462.30487.63513.48540.70569.36599.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 264.44286.66232.76300.43325.80324.44341.64359.75378.82398.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -84.65-108.12-61.87-18.88-63.52-73.64-77.54-81.65-85.98-90.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 22.75
Beta 1.902
Diluted Shares Outstanding 65.92
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 32.46
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.35%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.495
Total Debt 1,153.22
Total Equity 1,499.66
Total Capital 2,652.87
Debt Weighting 43.47
Equity Weighting 56.53
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,363.752,609.692,678.111,876.532,591.632,729.012,873.673,025.993,186.393,355.30
EBITDA 132.30115.41206.80-1.20324.86164.90173.64182.84192.54202.74
EBIT 68.7147.05134.62-64.70268.0690.7895.59100.66105.99111.61
Tax Rate 111.23%69.81%22.44%6.72%32.46%48.53%48.53%48.53%48.53%48.53%
EBIAT -7.7214.20104.41-60.35181.0446.7249.2051.8054.5557.44
Depreciation 63.5968.3672.1963.5056.8074.1278.0582.1986.5591.13
Accounts Receivable --62-5.2913.13-14.71-25.85-18.80-19.80-20.85-21.95
Inventories --40.5975.773.98-73.15-25.33-25.85-27.22-28.66-30.18
Accounts Payable -22.22-53.9067.6725.37-1.3517.2018.1119.0720.08
Capital Expenditure -84.66-108.12-61.87-18.88-63.52-73.64-77.54-81.65-85.98-90.53
UFCF -28.79-105.93131.3269.06111.83-5.3322.2623.4424.6825.99
WACC
PV UFCF -4.9519.2118.7918.3817.98
SUM PV UFCF 69.39

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.65
Free cash flow (t + 1) 26.51
Terminal Value 469.14
Present Value of Terminal Value 324.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 393.90
Net Debt 737.65
Equity Value -343.75
Shares Outstanding 65.92
Equity Value Per Share -5.21