Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Guess', Inc. (GES)

$17.98

-0.17 (-0.94%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 10.23 | 17.98 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 2,609.692,678.111,876.532,591.632,687.352,784.712,885.602,990.143,098.483,210.73
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 115.41206.80-1.20324.86272.22193.51200.52207.78215.31223.11
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 47.05134.62-64.70268.06210.75120.12124.47128.98133.65138.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 68.3672.1963.5056.8061.4773.3976.0578.8181.6684.62
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 210.46284.61469.11415.56275.76389.79403.91418.54433.71449.42
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 322327.28314.15328.86341.94371.55385.01398.96413.42428.40
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 468.90393.13389.14462.30510.90502.55520.76539.62559.17579.43
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 286.66232.76300.43325.80324.20335.95348.12360.73373.80387.35
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -108.12-61.87-18.88-63.52-66.58-68.99-71.49-74.08-76.76-79.55
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.98
Beta 1.892
Diluted Shares Outstanding 70.09
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.68
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.49%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.312
Total Debt 720.08
Total Equity 1,260.16
Total Capital 1,980.24
Debt Weighting 36.36
Equity Weighting 63.64
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 2,609.692,678.111,876.532,591.632,687.352,784.712,885.602,990.143,098.483,210.73
EBITDA 115.41206.80-1.20324.86272.22193.51200.52207.78215.31223.11
EBIT 47.05134.62-64.70268.06210.75120.12124.47128.98133.65138.49
Tax Rate 69.81%22.44%6.72%32.46%18.68%30.02%30.02%30.02%30.02%30.02%
EBIAT 14.20104.41-60.35181.04171.3984.0587.1090.2693.5396.91
Depreciation 68.3672.1963.5056.8061.4773.3976.0578.8181.6684.62
Accounts Receivable --5.2913.13-14.71-13.08-29.61-13.46-13.95-14.45-14.98
Inventories -75.773.98-73.15-48.608.35-18.21-18.87-19.55-20.26
Accounts Payable --53.9067.6725.37-1.5911.7512.1712.6113.0713.54
Capital Expenditure -108.12-61.87-18.88-63.52-66.58-68.99-71.49-74.08-76.76-79.55
UFCF -25.56131.3269.06111.83102.9978.9472.1674.7877.4980.30
WACC
PV UFCF 72.8361.4458.7456.1653.70
SUM PV UFCF 302.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.38
Free cash flow (t + 1) 81.90
Terminal Value 1,283.71
Present Value of Terminal Value 858.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,161.33
Net Debt 444.31
Equity Value 717.02
Shares Outstanding 70.09
Equity Value Per Share 10.23