Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Guess', Inc. (GES)
$22.75
-0.05 (-0.22%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,363.75 | 2,609.69 | 2,678.11 | 1,876.53 | 2,591.63 | 2,729.01 | 2,873.67 | 3,025.99 | 3,186.39 | 3,355.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 132.30 | 115.41 | 206.80 | -1.20 | 324.86 | 164.90 | 173.64 | 182.84 | 192.54 | 202.74 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 68.71 | 47.05 | 134.62 | -64.70 | 268.06 | 90.78 | 95.59 | 100.66 | 105.99 | 111.61 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 63.59 | 68.36 | 72.19 | 63.50 | 56.80 | 74.12 | 78.05 | 82.19 | 86.55 | 91.13 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 367.44 | 210.46 | 284.61 | 469.11 | 415.56 | 410.83 | 432.60 | 455.54 | 479.68 | 505.11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 260 | 322 | 327.28 | 314.15 | 328.86 | 354.71 | 373.51 | 393.31 | 414.16 | 436.11 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 428.30 | 468.90 | 393.13 | 389.14 | 462.30 | 487.63 | 513.48 | 540.70 | 569.36 | 599.54 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 264.44 | 286.66 | 232.76 | 300.43 | 325.80 | 324.44 | 341.64 | 359.75 | 378.82 | 398.90 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -84.65 | -108.12 | -61.87 | -18.88 | -63.52 | -73.64 | -77.54 | -81.65 | -85.98 | -90.53 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 22.75 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.902 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 65.92 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 32.46 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.35% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.495 |
| Total Debt | 1,153.22 |
| Total Equity | 1,499.66 |
| Total Capital | 2,652.87 |
| Debt Weighting | 43.47 |
| Equity Weighting | 56.53 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,363.75 | 2,609.69 | 2,678.11 | 1,876.53 | 2,591.63 | 2,729.01 | 2,873.67 | 3,025.99 | 3,186.39 | 3,355.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 132.30 | 115.41 | 206.80 | -1.20 | 324.86 | 164.90 | 173.64 | 182.84 | 192.54 | 202.74 |
| EBIT | 68.71 | 47.05 | 134.62 | -64.70 | 268.06 | 90.78 | 95.59 | 100.66 | 105.99 | 111.61 |
| Tax Rate | 111.23% | 69.81% | 22.44% | 6.72% | 32.46% | 48.53% | 48.53% | 48.53% | 48.53% | 48.53% |
| EBIAT | -7.72 | 14.20 | 104.41 | -60.35 | 181.04 | 46.72 | 49.20 | 51.80 | 54.55 | 57.44 |
| Depreciation | 63.59 | 68.36 | 72.19 | 63.50 | 56.80 | 74.12 | 78.05 | 82.19 | 86.55 | 91.13 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -62 | -5.29 | 13.13 | -14.71 | -25.85 | -18.80 | -19.80 | -20.85 | -21.95 |
| Inventories | - | -40.59 | 75.77 | 3.98 | -73.15 | -25.33 | -25.85 | -27.22 | -28.66 | -30.18 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 22.22 | -53.90 | 67.67 | 25.37 | -1.35 | 17.20 | 18.11 | 19.07 | 20.08 |
| Capital Expenditure | -84.66 | -108.12 | -61.87 | -18.88 | -63.52 | -73.64 | -77.54 | -81.65 | -85.98 | -90.53 |
| UFCF | -28.79 | -105.93 | 131.32 | 69.06 | 111.83 | -5.33 | 22.26 | 23.44 | 24.68 | 25.99 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -4.95 | 19.21 | 18.79 | 18.38 | 17.98 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 69.39 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.65 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 26.51 |
| Terminal Value | 469.14 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 324.51 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 393.90 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 737.65 |
| Equity Value | -343.75 |
| Shares Outstanding | 65.92 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -5.21 |