Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Gold Fields Limited (GFI)

$15.005

-0.27 (-1.74%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 28.02 | 15.005 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,577.80	2,967.10	3,892.10	4,195.20	4,286.70	4,889.47	5,577	6,361.21	7,255.69	8,275.95
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,675.10	1,699.80	2,147.40	2,242.50	2,277.40	2,777.46	3,168.01	3,613.48	4,121.59	4,701.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,006.70	1,089.80	1,486.10	1,529.30	1,433.10	1,797.85	2,050.66	2,339.01	2,667.91	3,043.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	668.40	610	661.30	713.20	844.30	979.60	1,117.35	1,274.47	1,453.68	1,658.09
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	399.70	515	886.80	524.70	769.40	841.99	960.39	1,095.44	1,249.47	1,425.16
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	101.40	93.40	133.60	155.40	207.70	186.42	212.63	242.53	276.64	315.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	368.20	417.80	521.60	627.60	759	727.87	830.21	946.96	1,080.11	1,231.99
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	145.90	138.10	133.40	165	133.10	203.20	231.78	264.37	301.54	343.94
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-814.20	-612.50	-590.80	-1,060	-1,043	-1,144.19	-1,305.08	-1,488.60	-1,697.91	-1,936.67
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 15.005
Beta	0.707
Diluted Shares Outstanding	893.92
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	38.91
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.635
Total Debt	1,473.50
Total Equity	13,413.21
Total Capital	14,886.71
Debt Weighting	9.90
Equity Weighting	90.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,577.80	2,967.10	3,892.10	4,195.20	4,286.70	4,889.47	5,577	6,361.21	7,255.69	8,275.95
EBITDA	1,675.10	1,699.80	2,147.40	2,242.50	2,277.40	2,777.46	3,168.01	3,613.48	4,121.59	4,701.14
EBIT	1,006.70	1,089.80	1,486.10	1,529.30	1,433.10	1,797.85	2,050.66	2,339.01	2,667.91	3,043.06
Tax Rate	15.22%	53.87%	38.62%	37.08%	38.91%	36.74%	36.74%	36.74%	36.74%	36.74%
EBIAT	853.50	502.75	912.17	962.27	875.52	1,137.36	1,297.29	1,479.71	1,687.77	1,925.10
Depreciation	668.40	610	661.30	713.20	844.30	979.60	1,117.35	1,274.47	1,453.68	1,658.09
Accounts Receivable	-	8	-40.20	-21.80	-52.30	21.28	-26.21	-29.90	-34.10	-38.90
Inventories	-	-49.60	-103.80	-106	-131.40	31.13	-102.35	-116.74	-133.16	-151.88
Accounts Payable	-	-7.80	-4.70	31.60	-31.90	70.10	28.57	32.59	37.17	42.40
Capital Expenditure	-814.20	-612.50	-590.80	-1,060	-1,043	-1,144.19	-1,305.08	-1,488.60	-1,697.91	-1,936.67
UFCF	707.70	450.85	833.97	519.27	461.22	1,095.29	1,009.57	1,151.53	1,313.45	1,498.14
WACC
PV UFCF						1,021.91	878.84	935.26	995.31	1,059.21
SUM PV UFCF										4,890.54

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.18
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,528.10
Terminal Value	29,500.07
Present Value of Terminal Value	20,857.12

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	25,747.66
Net Debt	704.10
Equity Value	25,043.56
Shares Outstanding	893.92
Equity Value Per Share	28.02