Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Gold Fields Limited (GFI)

$10.83

-0.24 (-2.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 28.60 | 10.83 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,577.802,967.103,892.104,195.204,286.704,889.475,5776,361.217,255.698,275.95
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,675.101,699.802,147.402,242.502,277.402,777.463,168.013,613.484,121.594,701.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,006.701,089.801,486.101,529.301,433.101,797.852,050.662,339.012,667.913,043.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 668.40610661.30713.20844.30979.601,117.351,274.471,453.681,658.09
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 399.70515886.80524.70769.40841.99960.391,095.441,249.471,425.16
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 101.4093.40133.60155.40207.70186.42212.63242.53276.64315.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 368.20417.80521.60627.60759727.87830.21946.961,080.111,231.99
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 145.90138.10133.40165133.10203.20231.78264.37301.54343.94
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -814.20-612.50-590.80-1,060-1,043-1,144.19-1,305.08-1,488.60-1,697.91-1,936.67
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.83
Beta 0.643
Diluted Shares Outstanding 893.92
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 38.91
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.698
Total Debt 1,473.50
Total Equity 9,681.11
Total Capital 11,154.61
Debt Weighting 13.21
Equity Weighting 86.79
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,577.802,967.103,892.104,195.204,286.704,889.475,5776,361.217,255.698,275.95
EBITDA 1,675.101,699.802,147.402,242.502,277.402,777.463,168.013,613.484,121.594,701.14
EBIT 1,006.701,089.801,486.101,529.301,433.101,797.852,050.662,339.012,667.913,043.06
Tax Rate 15.22%53.87%38.62%37.08%38.91%36.74%36.74%36.74%36.74%36.74%
EBIAT 853.50502.75912.17962.27875.521,137.361,297.291,479.711,687.771,925.10
Depreciation 668.40610661.30713.20844.30979.601,117.351,274.471,453.681,658.09
Accounts Receivable -8-40.20-21.80-52.3021.28-26.21-29.90-34.10-38.90
Inventories --49.60-103.80-106-131.4031.13-102.35-116.74-133.16-151.88
Accounts Payable --7.80-4.7031.60-31.9070.1028.5732.5937.1742.40
Capital Expenditure -814.20-612.50-590.80-1,060-1,043-1,144.19-1,305.08-1,488.60-1,697.91-1,936.67
UFCF 707.70450.85833.97519.27461.221,095.291,009.571,151.531,313.451,498.14
WACC
PV UFCF 1,022.87880.48937.89999.031,064.17
SUM PV UFCF 4,904.44

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.08
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,528.10
Terminal Value 30,080.78
Present Value of Terminal Value 21,367.18

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 26,271.62
Net Debt 704.10
Equity Value 25,567.52
Shares Outstanding 893.92
Equity Value Per Share 28.60