Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Gold Fields Limited (GFI)
$15.005
-0.27 (-1.74%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 2,577.80 | 2,967.10 | 3,892.10 | 4,195.20 | 4,286.70 | 4,889.47 | 5,577 | 6,361.21 | 7,255.69 | 8,275.95 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,675.10 | 1,699.80 | 2,147.40 | 2,242.50 | 2,277.40 | 2,777.46 | 3,168.01 | 3,613.48 | 4,121.59 | 4,701.14 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,006.70 | 1,089.80 | 1,486.10 | 1,529.30 | 1,433.10 | 1,797.85 | 2,050.66 | 2,339.01 | 2,667.91 | 3,043.06 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 668.40 | 610 | 661.30 | 713.20 | 844.30 | 979.60 | 1,117.35 | 1,274.47 | 1,453.68 | 1,658.09 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 399.70 | 515 | 886.80 | 524.70 | 769.40 | 841.99 | 960.39 | 1,095.44 | 1,249.47 | 1,425.16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 101.40 | 93.40 | 133.60 | 155.40 | 207.70 | 186.42 | 212.63 | 242.53 | 276.64 | 315.54 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 368.20 | 417.80 | 521.60 | 627.60 | 759 | 727.87 | 830.21 | 946.96 | 1,080.11 | 1,231.99 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 145.90 | 138.10 | 133.40 | 165 | 133.10 | 203.20 | 231.78 | 264.37 | 301.54 | 343.94 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -814.20 | -612.50 | -590.80 | -1,060 | -1,043 | -1,144.19 | -1,305.08 | -1,488.60 | -1,697.91 | -1,936.67 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 15.005 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.707 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 893.92 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 38.91 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.01% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.635 |
Total Debt | 1,473.50 |
Total Equity | 13,413.21 |
Total Capital | 14,886.71 |
Debt Weighting | 9.90 |
Equity Weighting | 90.10 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 2,577.80 | 2,967.10 | 3,892.10 | 4,195.20 | 4,286.70 | 4,889.47 | 5,577 | 6,361.21 | 7,255.69 | 8,275.95 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,675.10 | 1,699.80 | 2,147.40 | 2,242.50 | 2,277.40 | 2,777.46 | 3,168.01 | 3,613.48 | 4,121.59 | 4,701.14 |
EBIT | 1,006.70 | 1,089.80 | 1,486.10 | 1,529.30 | 1,433.10 | 1,797.85 | 2,050.66 | 2,339.01 | 2,667.91 | 3,043.06 |
Tax Rate | 15.22% | 53.87% | 38.62% | 37.08% | 38.91% | 36.74% | 36.74% | 36.74% | 36.74% | 36.74% |
EBIAT | 853.50 | 502.75 | 912.17 | 962.27 | 875.52 | 1,137.36 | 1,297.29 | 1,479.71 | 1,687.77 | 1,925.10 |
Depreciation | 668.40 | 610 | 661.30 | 713.20 | 844.30 | 979.60 | 1,117.35 | 1,274.47 | 1,453.68 | 1,658.09 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 8 | -40.20 | -21.80 | -52.30 | 21.28 | -26.21 | -29.90 | -34.10 | -38.90 |
Inventories | - | -49.60 | -103.80 | -106 | -131.40 | 31.13 | -102.35 | -116.74 | -133.16 | -151.88 |
Accounts Payable | - | -7.80 | -4.70 | 31.60 | -31.90 | 70.10 | 28.57 | 32.59 | 37.17 | 42.40 |
Capital Expenditure | -814.20 | -612.50 | -590.80 | -1,060 | -1,043 | -1,144.19 | -1,305.08 | -1,488.60 | -1,697.91 | -1,936.67 |
UFCF | 707.70 | 450.85 | 833.97 | 519.27 | 461.22 | 1,095.29 | 1,009.57 | 1,151.53 | 1,313.45 | 1,498.14 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 1,021.91 | 878.84 | 935.26 | 995.31 | 1,059.21 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 4,890.54 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.18 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,528.10 |
Terminal Value | 29,500.07 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 20,857.12 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 25,747.66 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 704.10 |
Equity Value | 25,043.56 |
Shares Outstanding | 893.92 |
Equity Value Per Share | 28.02 |