Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Graco Inc. (GGG)
$71.9743
+1.42 (+2.02%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,653.29 | 1,646.04 | 1,650.11 | 1,987.61 | 2,143.52 | 2,294.13 | 2,455.33 | 2,627.85 | 2,812.50 | 3,010.12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 472.90 | 467.90 | 441.26 | 578.01 | 641.62 | 655.13 | 701.16 | 750.43 | 803.16 | 859.59 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 425.15 | 418.99 | 385.93 | 518.68 | 575.62 | 585.04 | 626.15 | 670.14 | 717.23 | 767.62 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 47.75 | 48.91 | 55.33 | 59.32 | 66 | 70.09 | 75.02 | 80.29 | 85.93 | 91.97 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 132.12 | 220.97 | 378.91 | 624.30 | 339.20 | 420.34 | 449.88 | 481.49 | 515.32 | 551.53 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 274.61 | 267.34 | 314.95 | 325.13 | 346.01 | 387.42 | 414.65 | 443.78 | 474.96 | 508.34 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 283.98 | 273.23 | 285.70 | 382.30 | 476.79 | 424.73 | 454.57 | 486.51 | 520.69 | 557.28 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 56.90 | 54.12 | 58.30 | 78.43 | 84.22 | 83.22 | 89.07 | 95.33 | 102.03 | 109.19 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -53.85 | -127.95 | -71.34 | -133.57 | -201.16 | -144.34 | -154.48 | -165.34 | -176.95 | -189.39 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 71.9,743 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.799 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 172.89 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 18.57 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.89% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.174 |
Total Debt | 117.03 |
Total Equity | 12,443.85 |
Total Capital | 12,560.88 |
Debt Weighting | 0.93 |
Equity Weighting | 99.07 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,653.29 | 1,646.04 | 1,650.11 | 1,987.61 | 2,143.52 | 2,294.13 | 2,455.33 | 2,627.85 | 2,812.50 | 3,010.12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 472.90 | 467.90 | 441.26 | 578.01 | 641.62 | 655.13 | 701.16 | 750.43 | 803.16 | 859.59 |
EBIT | 425.15 | 418.99 | 385.93 | 518.68 | 575.62 | 585.04 | 626.15 | 670.14 | 717.23 | 767.62 |
Tax Rate | 16.97% | 15.28% | 11.80% | 13.49% | 18.57% | 15.22% | 15.22% | 15.22% | 15.22% | 15.22% |
EBIAT | 353 | 354.96 | 340.41 | 448.70 | 468.70 | 495.98 | 530.83 | 568.13 | 608.05 | 650.77 |
Depreciation | 47.75 | 48.91 | 55.33 | 59.32 | 66 | 70.09 | 75.02 | 80.29 | 85.93 | 91.97 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 7.26 | -47.60 | -10.19 | -20.88 | -41.41 | -27.22 | -29.13 | -31.18 | -33.37 |
Inventories | - | 10.75 | -12.47 | -96.60 | -94.49 | 52.06 | -29.84 | -31.94 | -34.18 | -36.59 |
Accounts Payable | - | -2.78 | 4.19 | 20.13 | 5.79 | -1 | 5.85 | 6.26 | 6.70 | 7.17 |
Capital Expenditure | -53.85 | -127.95 | -71.34 | -133.57 | -201.16 | -144.34 | -154.48 | -165.34 | -176.95 | -189.39 |
UFCF | 346.90 | 291.14 | 268.51 | 287.81 | 223.96 | 431.38 | 400.15 | 428.26 | 458.35 | 490.56 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 402.52 | 348.40 | 347.93 | 347.46 | 347 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,793.31 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.17 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 500.37 |
Terminal Value | 9,678.36 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 6,845.98 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 8,639.29 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -222.16 |
Equity Value | 8,861.45 |
Shares Outstanding | 172.89 |
Equity Value Per Share | 51.25 |