Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Graco Inc. (GGG)

$68.04

+0.26 (+0.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 50.57 | 68.04 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,474.741,653.291,646.041,650.111,987.612,148.452,322.302,510.232,713.362,932.93
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 408.88472.90467.90441.26578.01604.04652.92705.76762.87824.60
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 363.30425.15418.99385.93518.68538.35581.91629679.90734.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 45.5847.7548.9155.3359.3265.6971.0176.7682.9789.68
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 103.66132.12220.97378.91624.30355.86384.65415.78449.43485.79
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 256.42274.61267.34314.95325.13368.17397.96430.17464.98502.61
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 239.35283.98273.23285.70382.30371.92402.01434.54469.71507.72
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 48.7556.9054.1258.3078.4375.2681.3587.9395.05102.74
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -40.19-53.85-127.95-71.34-133.57-106.56-115.18-124.50-134.58-145.47
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 68.04
Beta 0.806
Diluted Shares Outstanding 174.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.49
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.271
Total Debt 226.11
Total Equity 11,874.75
Total Capital 12,100.86
Debt Weighting 1.87
Equity Weighting 98.13
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,474.741,653.291,646.041,650.111,987.612,148.452,322.302,510.232,713.362,932.93
EBITDA 408.88472.90467.90441.26578.01604.04652.92705.76762.87824.60
EBIT 363.30425.15418.99385.93518.68538.35581.91629679.90734.92
Tax Rate 27.28%16.97%15.28%11.80%13.49%16.96%16.96%16.96%16.96%16.96%
EBIAT 264.19353354.96340.41448.70447.02483.20522.30564.57610.25
Depreciation 45.5847.7548.9155.3359.3265.6971.0176.7682.9789.68
Accounts Receivable --18.197.26-47.60-10.19-43.04-29.79-32.20-34.81-37.63
Inventories --44.6310.75-12.47-96.6010.39-30.10-32.53-35.16-38.01
Accounts Payable -8.15-2.784.1920.13-3.176.096.587.127.69
Capital Expenditure -40.19-53.85-127.95-71.34-133.57-106.56-115.18-124.50-134.58-145.47
UFCF 269.58292.23291.14268.51287.81370.33385.23416.40450.09486.52
WACC
PV UFCF 345.42335.15337.91340.69343.50
SUM PV UFCF 1,702.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.21
Free cash flow (t + 1) 496.25
Terminal Value 9,524.90
Present Value of Terminal Value 6,724.87

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 8,427.55
Net Debt -398.19
Equity Value 8,825.74
Shares Outstanding 174.53
Equity Value Per Share 50.57