Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Graco Inc. (GGG)

$71.9743

+1.42 (+2.02%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 51.25 | 71.9743 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,653.29	1,646.04	1,650.11	1,987.61	2,143.52	2,294.13	2,455.33	2,627.85	2,812.50	3,010.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	472.90	467.90	441.26	578.01	641.62	655.13	701.16	750.43	803.16	859.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	425.15	418.99	385.93	518.68	575.62	585.04	626.15	670.14	717.23	767.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	47.75	48.91	55.33	59.32	66	70.09	75.02	80.29	85.93	91.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	132.12	220.97	378.91	624.30	339.20	420.34	449.88	481.49	515.32	551.53
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	274.61	267.34	314.95	325.13	346.01	387.42	414.65	443.78	474.96	508.34
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	283.98	273.23	285.70	382.30	476.79	424.73	454.57	486.51	520.69	557.28
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	56.90	54.12	58.30	78.43	84.22	83.22	89.07	95.33	102.03	109.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-53.85	-127.95	-71.34	-133.57	-201.16	-144.34	-154.48	-165.34	-176.95	-189.39
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 71.9,743
Beta	0.799
Diluted Shares Outstanding	172.89
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	18.57
After-tax Cost of Debt	6.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.174
Total Debt	117.03
Total Equity	12,443.85
Total Capital	12,560.88
Debt Weighting	0.93
Equity Weighting	99.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,653.29	1,646.04	1,650.11	1,987.61	2,143.52	2,294.13	2,455.33	2,627.85	2,812.50	3,010.12
EBITDA	472.90	467.90	441.26	578.01	641.62	655.13	701.16	750.43	803.16	859.59
EBIT	425.15	418.99	385.93	518.68	575.62	585.04	626.15	670.14	717.23	767.62
Tax Rate	16.97%	15.28%	11.80%	13.49%	18.57%	15.22%	15.22%	15.22%	15.22%	15.22%
EBIAT	353	354.96	340.41	448.70	468.70	495.98	530.83	568.13	608.05	650.77
Depreciation	47.75	48.91	55.33	59.32	66	70.09	75.02	80.29	85.93	91.97
Accounts Receivable	-	7.26	-47.60	-10.19	-20.88	-41.41	-27.22	-29.13	-31.18	-33.37
Inventories	-	10.75	-12.47	-96.60	-94.49	52.06	-29.84	-31.94	-34.18	-36.59
Accounts Payable	-	-2.78	4.19	20.13	5.79	-1	5.85	6.26	6.70	7.17
Capital Expenditure	-53.85	-127.95	-71.34	-133.57	-201.16	-144.34	-154.48	-165.34	-176.95	-189.39
UFCF	346.90	291.14	268.51	287.81	223.96	431.38	400.15	428.26	458.35	490.56
WACC
PV UFCF						402.52	348.40	347.93	347.46	347
SUM PV UFCF										1,793.31

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.17
Free cash flow (t + 1)	500.37
Terminal Value	9,678.36
Present Value of Terminal Value	6,845.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	8,639.29
Net Debt	-222.16
Equity Value	8,861.45
Shares Outstanding	172.89
Equity Value Per Share	51.25