Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Graco Inc. (GGG)

$71.9743

+1.42 (+2.02%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 51.25 | 71.9743 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,653.291,646.041,650.111,987.612,143.522,294.132,455.332,627.852,812.503,010.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 472.90467.90441.26578.01641.62655.13701.16750.43803.16859.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 425.15418.99385.93518.68575.62585.04626.15670.14717.23767.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 47.7548.9155.3359.326670.0975.0280.2985.9391.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 132.12220.97378.91624.30339.20420.34449.88481.49515.32551.53
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 274.61267.34314.95325.13346.01387.42414.65443.78474.96508.34
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 283.98273.23285.70382.30476.79424.73454.57486.51520.69557.28
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 56.9054.1258.3078.4384.2283.2289.0795.33102.03109.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -53.85-127.95-71.34-133.57-201.16-144.34-154.48-165.34-176.95-189.39
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 71.9,743
Beta 0.799
Diluted Shares Outstanding 172.89
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.57
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.174
Total Debt 117.03
Total Equity 12,443.85
Total Capital 12,560.88
Debt Weighting 0.93
Equity Weighting 99.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,653.291,646.041,650.111,987.612,143.522,294.132,455.332,627.852,812.503,010.12
EBITDA 472.90467.90441.26578.01641.62655.13701.16750.43803.16859.59
EBIT 425.15418.99385.93518.68575.62585.04626.15670.14717.23767.62
Tax Rate 16.97%15.28%11.80%13.49%18.57%15.22%15.22%15.22%15.22%15.22%
EBIAT 353354.96340.41448.70468.70495.98530.83568.13608.05650.77
Depreciation 47.7548.9155.3359.326670.0975.0280.2985.9391.97
Accounts Receivable -7.26-47.60-10.19-20.88-41.41-27.22-29.13-31.18-33.37
Inventories -10.75-12.47-96.60-94.4952.06-29.84-31.94-34.18-36.59
Accounts Payable --2.784.1920.135.79-15.856.266.707.17
Capital Expenditure -53.85-127.95-71.34-133.57-201.16-144.34-154.48-165.34-176.95-189.39
UFCF 346.90291.14268.51287.81223.96431.38400.15428.26458.35490.56
WACC
PV UFCF 402.52348.40347.93347.46347
SUM PV UFCF 1,793.31

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.17
Free cash flow (t + 1) 500.37
Terminal Value 9,678.36
Present Value of Terminal Value 6,845.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 8,639.29
Net Debt -222.16
Equity Value 8,861.45
Shares Outstanding 172.89
Equity Value Per Share 51.25