Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI)
$49.79
-0.34 (-0.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 1,153.47 | 1,153.16 | 1,216.35 | 1,311.69 | 1,369.79 | 1,430.48 | 1,493.85 | 1,560.03 | 1,629.14 | 1,701.31 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 956.14 | 1,034.73 | 1,097.48 | 1,265.55 | 1,230.52 | 1,285.04 | 1,341.96 | 1,401.41 | 1,463.50 | 1,528.33 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 697.16 | 791.73 | 845.43 | 1,011 | 944.06 | 985.88 | 1,029.56 | 1,075.17 | 1,122.80 | 1,172.54 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 258.97 | 242.99 | 252.05 | 254.55 | 286.46 | 299.15 | 312.41 | 326.25 | 340.70 | 355.79 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 26.82 | 486.45 | 724.59 | 239.08 | 1,921.11 | 751.16 | 784.44 | 819.19 | 855.48 | 893.38 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 303.68 | 303.60 | 320.24 | 345.34 | 360.64 | 376.61 | 393.30 | 410.72 | 428.92 | 447.92 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1.01 | 0.37 | 0.78 | 6.56 | 6.93 | 3.40 | 3.56 | 3.71 | 3.88 | 4.05 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -3.02 | -3.60 | -16.20 | -24.02 | -12.80 | -13.36 | -13.96 | -14.58 | -15.22 | -15.90 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 49.79 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.999 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 236.23 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 4.95 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.75% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.458 |
Total Debt | 6,563.76 |
Total Equity | 11,761.94 |
Total Capital | 18,325.70 |
Debt Weighting | 35.82 |
Equity Weighting | 64.18 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 1,153.47 | 1,153.16 | 1,216.35 | 1,311.69 | 1,369.79 | 1,430.48 | 1,493.85 | 1,560.03 | 1,629.14 | 1,701.31 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 956.14 | 1,034.73 | 1,097.48 | 1,265.55 | 1,230.52 | 1,285.04 | 1,341.96 | 1,401.41 | 1,463.50 | 1,528.33 |
EBIT | 697.16 | 791.73 | 845.43 | 1,011 | 944.06 | 985.88 | 1,029.56 | 1,075.17 | 1,122.80 | 1,172.54 |
Tax Rate | 1.20% | 0.76% | 5.05% | 4.95% | 2.99% | 2.99% | 2.99% | 2.99% | 2.99% | 2.99% |
EBIAT | 688.77 | 785.71 | 802.76 | 960.91 | 915.82 | 956.39 | 998.76 | 1,043.01 | 1,089.21 | 1,137.47 |
Depreciation | 258.97 | 242.99 | 252.05 | 254.55 | 286.46 | 299.15 | 312.41 | 326.25 | 340.70 | 355.79 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 0.08 | -16.64 | -25.10 | -15.30 | -15.98 | -16.68 | -17.42 | -18.20 | -19 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | -0.63 | 0.40 | 5.78 | 0.37 | -3.53 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.17 |
Capital Expenditure | -3.02 | -3.60 | -16.20 | -24.02 | -12.80 | -13.36 | -13.96 | -14.58 | -15.22 | -15.90 |
UFCF | 944.72 | 1,024.55 | 1,022.39 | 1,172.12 | 1,174.56 | 1,222.68 | 1,280.68 | 1,337.41 | 1,396.66 | 1,458.53 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 1,174.56 | 1,141.30 | 1,115.88 | 1,087.76 | 1,060.34 | 1,033.62 | ||||
SUM PV UFCF | 5,438.90 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.13 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,487.70 |
Terminal Value | 29,000.09 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 20,551.52 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 25,990.42 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 6,556.94 |
Equity Value | 19,433.48 |
Shares Outstanding | 236.23 |
Equity Value Per Share | 82.26 |