Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE)
$12.51
+0.19 (+1.54%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 264.20 | 280.31 | 315.29 | 379.31 | 363.73 | 395.34 | 429.71 | 467.07 | 507.67 | 551.80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -2.82 | 12.87 | 12.93 | 25.34 | 39.71 | 19.95 | 21.68 | 23.57 | 25.61 | 27.84 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -4.96 | 10.81 | 9.31 | 21.80 | 38.43 | 16.80 | 18.26 | 19.84 | 21.57 | 23.44 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2.14 | 2.06 | 3.63 | 3.55 | 1.28 | 3.15 | 3.42 | 3.72 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 29.91 | 41.60 | 31.24 | 42 | 96.83 | 58.33 | 63.40 | 68.91 | 74.90 | 81.41 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 44.63 | 35.92 | 49.82 | 60.78 | 57.01 | 61.05 | 66.35 | 72.12 | 78.39 | 85.20 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 3.99 | 9.89 | 16.63 | 16.93 | 17.72 | 15.54 | 16.89 | 18.35 | 19.95 | 21.68 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 21.07 | 18.51 | 24.39 | 43 | 33.55 | 33.90 | 36.85 | 40.05 | 43.53 | 47.32 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -8.82 | -1.33 | -0.40 | -0.17 | -0.13 | -3.18 | -3.46 | -3.76 | -4.08 | -4.44 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 12.51 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.387 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 26.32 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 10.55 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.47% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.467 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 329.21 |
| Total Capital | 329.21 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 264.20 | 280.31 | 315.29 | 379.31 | 363.73 | 395.34 | 429.71 | 467.07 | 507.67 | 551.80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -2.82 | 12.87 | 12.93 | 25.34 | 39.71 | 19.95 | 21.68 | 23.57 | 25.61 | 27.84 |
| EBIT | -4.96 | 10.81 | 9.31 | 21.80 | 38.43 | 16.80 | 18.26 | 19.84 | 21.57 | 23.44 |
| Tax Rate | -1.04% | -152.49% | 30.17% | 44.88% | 10.55% | -13.58% | -13.58% | -13.58% | -13.58% | -13.58% |
| EBIAT | -5.01 | 27.29 | 6.50 | 12.01 | 34.37 | 19.08 | 20.74 | 22.54 | 24.50 | 26.63 |
| Depreciation | 2.14 | 2.06 | 3.63 | 3.55 | 1.28 | 3.15 | 3.42 | 3.72 | 4.04 | 4.40 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 8.71 | -13.90 | -10.96 | 3.77 | -4.03 | -5.31 | -5.77 | -6.27 | -6.81 |
| Inventories | - | -5.91 | -6.74 | -0.30 | -0.79 | 2.18 | -1.35 | -1.47 | -1.60 | -1.73 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -2.56 | 5.88 | 18.62 | -9.45 | 0.35 | 2.95 | 3.20 | 3.48 | 3.78 |
| Capital Expenditure | -8.82 | -1.33 | -0.40 | -0.17 | -0.13 | -3.18 | -3.46 | -3.76 | -4.08 | -4.44 |
| UFCF | -11.69 | 28.27 | -5.04 | 22.76 | 29.06 | 17.55 | 17 | 18.47 | 20.08 | 21.82 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 16.64 | 15.28 | 15.75 | 16.23 | 16.72 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 80.61 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.47 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 22.26 |
| Terminal Value | 641.51 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 491.54 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 572.15 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -95.49 |
| Equity Value | 667.64 |
| Shares Outstanding | 26.32 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 25.37 |