Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (GNTY)
$28.69
-0.26 (-0.90%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 84.22 | 95.84 | 113.02 | 120.13 | 2.71 | 2.31 | 1.96 | 1.67 | 1.42 | 1.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 49.36 | 37.32 | 38.76 | 54.07 | 69.60 | 12.66 | 10.77 | 9.16 | 7.79 | 6.63 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 44.74 | 32.06 | 33.30 | 48.56 | 64.66 | 11.72 | 9.97 | 8.48 | 7.22 | 6.14 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 4.63 | 5.26 | 5.47 | 5.51 | 4.93 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 284.21 | 258.18 | 513.76 | 409.84 | 248.12 | 48.69 | 41.42 | 35.24 | 29.98 | 25.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 9.29 | 9.15 | 9.83 | 8.90 | 11.55 | 2.14 | 1.82 | 1.55 | 1.31 | 1.12 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 10.73 | 23.59 | 25.26 | 26.57 | 28.41 | 5.21 | 4.43 | 3.77 | 3.21 | 2.73 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.83 | -5.09 | -5.90 | -2.90 | -5.68 | -1.04 | -0.89 | -0.75 | -0.64 | -0.55 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 28.69 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.502 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12.26 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.89 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.72% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.941 |
| Total Debt | 339.15 |
| Total Equity | 351.83 |
| Total Capital | 690.99 |
| Debt Weighting | 49.08 |
| Equity Weighting | 50.92 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 84.22 | 95.84 | 113.02 | 120.13 | 2.71 | 2.31 | 1.96 | 1.67 | 1.42 | 1.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 49.36 | 37.32 | 38.76 | 54.07 | 69.60 | 12.66 | 10.77 | 9.16 | 7.79 | 6.63 |
| EBIT | 44.74 | 32.06 | 33.30 | 48.56 | 64.66 | 11.72 | 9.97 | 8.48 | 7.22 | 6.14 |
| Tax Rate | 18.25% | 18.02% | 17.70% | 18.02% | 17.89% | 17.98% | 17.98% | 17.98% | 17.98% | 17.98% |
| EBIAT | 36.57 | 26.28 | 27.40 | 39.81 | 53.10 | 9.62 | 8.18 | 6.96 | 5.92 | 5.04 |
| Depreciation | 4.63 | 5.26 | 5.47 | 5.51 | 4.93 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.14 | -0.68 | 0.93 | -2.65 | 9.42 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 12.85 | 1.67 | 1.31 | 1.84 | -23.20 | -0.78 | -0.66 | -0.56 | -0.48 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.83 | -5.09 | -5.90 | -2.90 | -5.68 | -1.04 | -0.89 | -0.75 | -0.64 | -0.55 |
| UFCF | 38.37 | 39.45 | 27.95 | 44.67 | 51.53 | -4.27 | 7.63 | 6.49 | 5.52 | 4.70 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -4.05 | 6.87 | 5.55 | 4.48 | 3.62 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 16.47 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.36 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 4.79 |
| Terminal Value | 142.58 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 109.82 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 126.29 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 279.96 |
| Equity Value | -153.68 |
| Shares Outstanding | 12.26 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -12.53 |