Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (GNTY)

$28.69

-0.26 (-0.90%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -12.53 | 28.69 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 84.2295.84113.02120.132.712.311.961.671.421.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 49.3637.3238.7654.0769.6012.6610.779.167.796.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 44.7432.0633.3048.5664.6611.729.978.487.226.14
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.635.265.475.514.930.930.790.680.570.49
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 284.21258.18513.76409.84248.1248.6941.4235.2429.9825.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9.299.159.838.9011.552.141.821.551.311.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 10.7323.5925.2626.5728.415.214.433.773.212.73
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.83-5.09-5.90-2.90-5.68-1.04-0.89-0.75-0.64-0.55
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 28.69
Beta 0.502
Diluted Shares Outstanding 12.26
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.89
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.72%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.941
Total Debt 339.15
Total Equity 351.83
Total Capital 690.99
Debt Weighting 49.08
Equity Weighting 50.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 84.2295.84113.02120.132.712.311.961.671.421.21
EBITDA 49.3637.3238.7654.0769.6012.6610.779.167.796.63
EBIT 44.7432.0633.3048.5664.6611.729.978.487.226.14
Tax Rate 18.25%18.02%17.70%18.02%17.89%17.98%17.98%17.98%17.98%17.98%
EBIAT 36.5726.2827.4039.8153.109.628.186.965.925.04
Depreciation 4.635.265.475.514.930.930.790.680.570.49
Accounts Receivable -0.14-0.680.93-2.659.420.320.270.230.20
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -12.851.671.311.84-23.20-0.78-0.66-0.56-0.48
Capital Expenditure -2.83-5.09-5.90-2.90-5.68-1.04-0.89-0.75-0.64-0.55
UFCF 38.3739.4527.9544.6751.53-4.277.636.495.524.70
WACC
PV UFCF -4.056.875.554.483.62
SUM PV UFCF 16.47

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.36
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4.79
Terminal Value 142.58
Present Value of Terminal Value 109.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 126.29
Net Debt 279.96
Equity Value -153.68
Shares Outstanding 12.26
Equity Value Per Share -12.53