Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (GNTY)
$26.57
+1.37 (+5.44%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 94.48 | 111.07 | 117.69 | 128.60 | 142.65 | 158.24 | 175.53 | 194.71 | 215.99 | 239.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 61.01 | 51.82 | 61.06 | 69.60 | 77.47 | 85.94 | 95.33 | 105.74 | 117.30 | 130.12 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 55.75 | 46.36 | 55.55 | 64.66 | 70.69 | 78.42 | 86.98 | 96.49 | 107.03 | 118.73 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 5.26 | 5.47 | 5.51 | 4.93 | 6.78 | 7.52 | 8.34 | 9.26 | 10.27 | 11.39 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 258.18 | 513.76 | 409.84 | 248.12 | 232.77 | 455.78 | 505.59 | 560.84 | 622.12 | 690.11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 9.15 | 9.83 | 8.90 | 11.55 | 10.44 | 13.42 | 14.89 | 16.51 | 18.32 | 20.32 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 23.06 | 25.26 | 26.57 | 28.41 | 32.74 | 36.32 | 40.29 | 44.69 | 49.58 | 54.99 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -5.09 | -5.90 | -2.90 | -5.68 | -6.27 | -6.96 | -7.72 | -8.56 | -9.49 | -10.53 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 26.57 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.426 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12.09 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.89 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.11% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.709 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 321.31 |
| Total Capital | 321.31 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 94.48 | 111.07 | 117.69 | 128.60 | 142.65 | 158.24 | 175.53 | 194.71 | 215.99 | 239.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 61.01 | 51.82 | 61.06 | 69.60 | 77.47 | 85.94 | 95.33 | 105.74 | 117.30 | 130.12 |
| EBIT | 55.75 | 46.36 | 55.55 | 64.66 | 70.69 | 78.42 | 86.98 | 96.49 | 107.03 | 118.73 |
| Tax Rate | 18.02% | 17.70% | 18.02% | 17.89% | 17.91% | 17.91% | 17.91% | 17.91% | 17.91% | 17.91% |
| EBIAT | 45.70 | 38.15 | 45.54 | 53.10 | 58.03 | 64.37 | 71.41 | 79.21 | 87.87 | 97.47 |
| Depreciation | 5.26 | 5.47 | 5.51 | 4.93 | 6.78 | 7.52 | 8.34 | 9.26 | 10.27 | 11.39 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.68 | 0.93 | -2.65 | 1.11 | -2.98 | -1.47 | -1.63 | -1.80 | -2 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2.20 | 1.31 | 1.84 | 4.33 | 3.58 | 3.97 | 4.40 | 4.88 | 5.42 |
| Capital Expenditure | -5.09 | -5.90 | -2.90 | -5.68 | -6.27 | -6.96 | -7.72 | -8.56 | -9.49 | -10.53 |
| UFCF | 45.87 | 39.23 | 50.40 | 51.53 | 63.99 | 65.54 | 74.54 | 82.68 | 91.72 | 101.74 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 63.99 | 62 | 66.70 | 69.99 | 73.45 | 77.07 | ||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 349.22 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.71 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 103.77 |
| Terminal Value | 2,797.16 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,119.03 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,468.25 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -59.03 |
| Equity Value | 2,527.28 |
| Shares Outstanding | 12.09 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 208.99 |