Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (GNTY)
$26.57
+1.37 (+5.44%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 94.48 | 111.07 | 117.69 | 128.60 | 142.65 | 158.24 | 175.53 | 194.71 | 215.99 | 239.59 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 61.01 | 51.82 | 61.06 | 69.60 | 77.47 | 85.94 | 95.33 | 105.74 | 117.30 | 130.12 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 55.75 | 46.36 | 55.55 | 64.66 | 70.69 | 78.42 | 86.98 | 96.49 | 107.03 | 118.73 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 5.26 | 5.47 | 5.51 | 4.93 | 6.78 | 7.52 | 8.34 | 9.26 | 10.27 | 11.39 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 258.18 | 513.76 | 409.84 | 248.12 | 232.77 | 455.78 | 505.59 | 560.84 | 622.12 | 690.11 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 9.15 | 9.83 | 8.90 | 11.55 | 10.44 | 13.42 | 14.89 | 16.51 | 18.32 | 20.32 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 23.06 | 25.26 | 26.57 | 28.41 | 32.74 | 36.32 | 40.29 | 44.69 | 49.58 | 54.99 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -5.09 | -5.90 | -2.90 | -5.68 | -6.27 | -6.96 | -7.72 | -8.56 | -9.49 | -10.53 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 26.57 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.426 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12.09 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 17.89 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.11% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 5.709 |
Total Debt | - |
Total Equity | 321.31 |
Total Capital | 321.31 |
Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 94.48 | 111.07 | 117.69 | 128.60 | 142.65 | 158.24 | 175.53 | 194.71 | 215.99 | 239.59 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 61.01 | 51.82 | 61.06 | 69.60 | 77.47 | 85.94 | 95.33 | 105.74 | 117.30 | 130.12 |
EBIT | 55.75 | 46.36 | 55.55 | 64.66 | 70.69 | 78.42 | 86.98 | 96.49 | 107.03 | 118.73 |
Tax Rate | 18.02% | 17.70% | 18.02% | 17.89% | 17.91% | 17.91% | 17.91% | 17.91% | 17.91% | 17.91% |
EBIAT | 45.70 | 38.15 | 45.54 | 53.10 | 58.03 | 64.37 | 71.41 | 79.21 | 87.87 | 97.47 |
Depreciation | 5.26 | 5.47 | 5.51 | 4.93 | 6.78 | 7.52 | 8.34 | 9.26 | 10.27 | 11.39 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -0.68 | 0.93 | -2.65 | 1.11 | -2.98 | -1.47 | -1.63 | -1.80 | -2 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | 2.20 | 1.31 | 1.84 | 4.33 | 3.58 | 3.97 | 4.40 | 4.88 | 5.42 |
Capital Expenditure | -5.09 | -5.90 | -2.90 | -5.68 | -6.27 | -6.96 | -7.72 | -8.56 | -9.49 | -10.53 |
UFCF | 45.87 | 39.23 | 50.40 | 51.53 | 63.99 | 65.54 | 74.54 | 82.68 | 91.72 | 101.74 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 63.99 | 62 | 66.70 | 69.99 | 73.45 | 77.07 | ||||
SUM PV UFCF | 349.22 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.71 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 103.77 |
Terminal Value | 2,797.16 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,119.03 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,468.25 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -59.03 |
Equity Value | 2,527.28 |
Shares Outstanding | 12.09 |
Equity Value Per Share | 208.99 |