Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Golden Ocean Group Limited (GOGL)

$9.37

+0.04 (+0.43%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 20.92 | 9.37 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 460.02656.07705.80607.941,203.181,606.982,146.282,866.593,828.635,113.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 132.87250.29188.3818.44688.04494.76660.81882.581,178.781,574.39
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 54.78158.1494.54-92.86564.34260.45347.85464.59620.52828.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 78.0992.1593.84111.30123.70234.32312.96417.99558.27745.62
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 325.33317.39102.79156.78198.72565.54755.341,008.841,347.411,799.61
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 82.3388.24113.2365.53100.68213.85285.62381.47509.49680.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 20.1428.1528.2425.1643.3865.6187.63117.04156.33208.79
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.407.7512.4018.406.4624.6732.9544.0158.7878.51
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -159.55-158.24-44.12-25.27-445-341.30-455.85-608.83-813.16-1,086.06
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.37
Beta 1.318
Diluted Shares Outstanding 193.12
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.07
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.59%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.771
Total Debt 1,418.84
Total Equity 1,809.54
Total Capital 3,228.38
Debt Weighting 43.95
Equity Weighting 56.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 460.02656.07705.80607.941,203.181,606.982,146.282,866.593,828.635,113.54
EBITDA 132.87250.29188.3818.44688.04494.76660.81882.581,178.781,574.39
EBIT 54.78158.1494.54-92.86564.34260.45347.85464.59620.52828.76
Tax Rate -2.44%0.27%0.63%-0.10%0.07%-0.31%-0.31%-0.31%-0.31%-0.31%
EBIAT 56.12157.7193.94-92.95563.92261.26348.94466.04622.45831.35
Depreciation 78.0992.1593.84111.30123.70234.32312.96417.99558.27745.62
Accounts Receivable --5.91-24.9947.70-35.15-113.17-71.77-95.85-128.02-170.99
Inventories --8.01-0.083.07-18.22-22.23-22.02-29.41-39.28-52.46
Accounts Payable -2.354.656-11.9418.218.2811.0614.7719.73
Capital Expenditure -159.55-158.24-44.12-25.27-445-341.30-455.85-608.83-813.16-1,086.06
UFCF -25.3480.05123.2549.85177.3237.09120.54160.99215.02287.19
WACC
PV UFCF 34.79106.06132.87166.45208.53
SUM PV UFCF 648.70

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) 292.93
Terminal Value 6,354.27
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,613.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 5,262.68
Net Debt 1,221.81
Equity Value 4,040.87
Shares Outstanding 193.12
Equity Value Per Share 20.92