Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Golden Ocean Group Limited (GOGL)

$9.37

+0.04 (+0.43%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 20.92 | 9.37 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	460.02	656.07	705.80	607.94	1,203.18	1,606.98	2,146.28	2,866.59	3,828.63	5,113.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	132.87	250.29	188.38	18.44	688.04	494.76	660.81	882.58	1,178.78	1,574.39
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	54.78	158.14	94.54	-92.86	564.34	260.45	347.85	464.59	620.52	828.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	78.09	92.15	93.84	111.30	123.70	234.32	312.96	417.99	558.27	745.62
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	325.33	317.39	102.79	156.78	198.72	565.54	755.34	1,008.84	1,347.41	1,799.61
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	82.33	88.24	113.23	65.53	100.68	213.85	285.62	381.47	509.49	680.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	20.14	28.15	28.24	25.16	43.38	65.61	87.63	117.04	156.33	208.79
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	5.40	7.75	12.40	18.40	6.46	24.67	32.95	44.01	58.78	78.51
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-159.55	-158.24	-44.12	-25.27	-445	-341.30	-455.85	-608.83	-813.16	-1,086.06
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 9.37
Beta	1.318
Diluted Shares Outstanding	193.12
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.07
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.59%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.771
Total Debt	1,418.84
Total Equity	1,809.54
Total Capital	3,228.38
Debt Weighting	43.95
Equity Weighting	56.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	460.02	656.07	705.80	607.94	1,203.18	1,606.98	2,146.28	2,866.59	3,828.63	5,113.54
EBITDA	132.87	250.29	188.38	18.44	688.04	494.76	660.81	882.58	1,178.78	1,574.39
EBIT	54.78	158.14	94.54	-92.86	564.34	260.45	347.85	464.59	620.52	828.76
Tax Rate	-2.44%	0.27%	0.63%	-0.10%	0.07%	-0.31%	-0.31%	-0.31%	-0.31%	-0.31%
EBIAT	56.12	157.71	93.94	-92.95	563.92	261.26	348.94	466.04	622.45	831.35
Depreciation	78.09	92.15	93.84	111.30	123.70	234.32	312.96	417.99	558.27	745.62
Accounts Receivable	-	-5.91	-24.99	47.70	-35.15	-113.17	-71.77	-95.85	-128.02	-170.99
Inventories	-	-8.01	-0.08	3.07	-18.22	-22.23	-22.02	-29.41	-39.28	-52.46
Accounts Payable	-	2.35	4.65	6	-11.94	18.21	8.28	11.06	14.77	19.73
Capital Expenditure	-159.55	-158.24	-44.12	-25.27	-445	-341.30	-455.85	-608.83	-813.16	-1,086.06
UFCF	-25.34	80.05	123.25	49.85	177.32	37.09	120.54	160.99	215.02	287.19
WACC
PV UFCF						34.79	106.06	132.87	166.45	208.53
SUM PV UFCF										648.70

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.61
Free cash flow (t + 1)	292.93
Terminal Value	6,354.27
Present Value of Terminal Value	4,613.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	5,262.68
Net Debt	1,221.81
Equity Value	4,040.87
Shares Outstanding	193.12
Equity Value Per Share	20.92