Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Gogo Inc. (GOGO)
$16.73
+0.09 (+0.54%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 699.09 | 893.76 | 835.73 | 269.72 | 335.72 | 317.33 | 299.95 | 283.53 | 268 | 253.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 61.41 | 68.57 | 100.15 | -116.12 | 48.46 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.09 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -84.08 | -65.05 | -18.67 | -130.29 | 32.98 | -38.09 | -36.01 | -34.04 | -32.17 | -30.41 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 145.49 | 133.62 | 118.82 | 14.17 | 15.48 | 37.98 | 35.90 | 33.93 | 32.08 | 30.32 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 409.15 | 223.48 | 170.02 | 435.35 | 145.91 | 195.95 | 185.22 | 175.08 | 165.49 | 156.43 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 117.90 | 144.73 | 113.72 | 42.25 | 37.73 | 46.69 | 44.13 | 41.72 | 39.43 | 37.27 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 45.54 | 193.04 | 117.14 | 28.11 | 33.98 | 39.78 | 37.60 | 35.54 | 33.59 | 31.75 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 27.13 | 23.86 | 17.16 | 11.01 | 17.20 | 11.30 | 10.69 | 10.10 | 9.55 | 9.02 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -280.23 | -131.66 | -115.48 | -8.99 | -3.40 | -46.32 | -43.78 | -41.38 | -39.12 | -36.97 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 16.73 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.322 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 82.27 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 598.47 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -48.40% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.780 |
| Total Debt | 694.76 |
| Total Equity | 1,376.31 |
| Total Capital | 2,071.07 |
| Debt Weighting | 33.55 |
| Equity Weighting | 66.45 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 699.09 | 893.76 | 835.73 | 269.72 | 335.72 | 317.33 | 299.95 | 283.53 | 268 | 253.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 61.41 | 68.57 | 100.15 | -116.12 | 48.46 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.09 |
| EBIT | -84.08 | -65.05 | -18.67 | -130.29 | 32.98 | -38.09 | -36.01 | -34.04 | -32.17 | -30.41 |
| Tax Rate | 1.15% | 1.99% | -0.69% | -413.37% | 598.47% | 37.51% | 37.51% | 37.51% | 37.51% | 37.51% |
| EBIAT | -83.11 | -63.75 | -18.80 | -668.85 | -164.38 | -23.80 | -22.50 | -21.27 | -20.10 | -19 |
| Depreciation | 145.49 | 133.62 | 118.82 | 14.17 | 15.48 | 37.98 | 35.90 | 33.93 | 32.08 | 30.32 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -26.84 | 31.01 | 71.47 | 4.52 | -8.96 | 2.56 | 2.42 | 2.28 | 2.16 |
| Inventories | - | -147.50 | 75.90 | 89.03 | -5.86 | -5.80 | 2.18 | 2.06 | 1.95 | 1.84 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -3.27 | -6.70 | -6.15 | 6.19 | -5.90 | -0.62 | -0.59 | -0.55 | -0.52 |
| Capital Expenditure | -280.23 | -131.66 | -115.48 | -8.99 | -3.40 | -46.32 | -43.78 | -41.38 | -39.12 | -36.97 |
| UFCF | -217.85 | -239.41 | 84.75 | -509.32 | -147.45 | -52.80 | -26.27 | -24.83 | -23.47 | -22.18 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -58.50 | -32.24 | -33.76 | -35.36 | -37.03 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -196.89 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | -9.74 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -22.63 |
| Terminal Value | 192.73 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 321.72 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 124.82 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 548.85 |
| Equity Value | -424.02 |
| Shares Outstanding | 82.27 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -5.15 |