Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD)
$11.94
+0.37 (+3.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 106.80 | 114.39 | 133.15 | 137.69 | 148.98 | 162.06 | 176.29 | 191.77 | 208.60 | 226.92 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 86.11 | 89.95 | 97.22 | 97.01 | 86.90 | 117.03 | 127.30 | 138.48 | 150.64 | 163.86 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 38.49 | 37.91 | 41.74 | 36.66 | 29.42 | 47.61 | 51.79 | 56.34 | 61.29 | 66.67 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 47.62 | 52.04 | 55.48 | 60.35 | 57.48 | 69.41 | 75.51 | 82.14 | 89.35 | 97.19 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 6.59 | 6.85 | 11.02 | 7.96 | 11.65 | 11.03 | 12 | 13.05 | 14.20 | 15.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | 39.07 | 38.88 | 44.14 | 48.02 | 52.23 | 56.82 | 61.80 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 2.70 | 5.57 | 4.46 | 6.74 | 9.61 | 7.16 | 7.79 | 8.47 | 9.22 | 10.03 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -32.26 | -127.16 | -94.12 | -97.32 | -105.30 | -114.55 | -124.61 | -135.55 | -147.45 | -160.39 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 11.94 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.113 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 38.95 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 8.90% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.942 |
| Total Debt | 364.70 |
| Total Equity | 465.07 |
| Total Capital | 829.77 |
| Debt Weighting | 43.95 |
| Equity Weighting | 56.05 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 106.80 | 114.39 | 133.15 | 137.69 | 148.98 | 162.06 | 176.29 | 191.77 | 208.60 | 226.92 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 86.11 | 89.95 | 97.22 | 97.01 | 86.90 | 117.03 | 127.30 | 138.48 | 150.64 | 163.86 |
| EBIT | 38.49 | 37.91 | 41.74 | 36.66 | 29.42 | 47.61 | 51.79 | 56.34 | 61.29 | 66.67 |
| Tax Rate | 0.03% | -0.91% | 0.31% | -0.41% | 0.00% | -0.20% | -0.20% | -0.20% | -0.20% | -0.20% |
| EBIAT | 38.48 | 38.25 | 41.61 | 36.81 | 29.42 | 47.71 | 51.90 | 56.45 | 61.41 | 66.80 |
| Depreciation | 47.62 | 52.04 | 55.48 | 60.35 | 57.48 | 69.41 | 75.51 | 82.14 | 89.35 | 97.19 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | 0.18 | -5.26 | -3.88 | -4.22 | -4.59 | -4.99 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2.87 | -1.11 | 2.28 | 2.87 | -2.45 | 0.63 | 0.68 | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| Capital Expenditure | -32.26 | -127.16 | -94.12 | -97.32 | -105.30 | -114.55 | -124.61 | -135.55 | -147.45 | -160.39 |
| UFCF | 53.84 | -33.99 | 1.86 | 2.12 | -15.36 | -5.13 | -0.45 | -0.49 | -0.53 | -0.58 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -4.71 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.38 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -6.22 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.92 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -0.59 |
| Terminal Value | -8.51 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -5.55 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -11.77 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 353.04 |
| Equity Value | -364.81 |
| Shares Outstanding | 38.95 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -9.37 |