Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

$98.84

+0.89 (+0.91%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 85.17 | 98.84 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	110,855	136,819	161,857	182,527	257,637	319,239.48	395,571.46	490,154.85	607,353.68	752,575.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	34,217	44,062	51,506	61,914	103,521	107,899.35	133,698.70	165,666.82	205,278.70	254,362.02
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	27,302	35,027	39,725	48,217	91,080	87,178.71	108,023.64	133,852.71	165,857.65	205,515.17
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	6,915	9,035	11,781	13,697	12,441	20,720.64	25,675.06	31,814.11	39,421.05	48,846.85
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	101,871	109,140	119,675	136,694	139,649	239,236.53	296,439.35	367,319.69	455,147.92	563,976.39
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	18,705	21,193	27,492	31,384	40,270	52,465.89	65,010.78	80,555.23	99,816.45	123,683.13
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	749	1,107	999	728	1,170	1,886.67	2,337.78	2,896.76	3,589.39	4,447.63
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	3,137	4,378	5,561	5,589	6,037	9,494.60	11,764.81	14,577.84	18,063.49	22,382.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-13,184	-25,139	-23,548	-22,281	-24,640	-42,514	-52,679.34	-65,275.27	-80,882.96	-100,222.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 98.84
Beta	1.069
Diluted Shares Outstanding	13,553.47
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	16.20
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.577
Total Debt	28,395
Total Equity	1,339,625.36
Total Capital	1,368,020.36
Debt Weighting	2.08
Equity Weighting	97.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	110,855	136,819	161,857	182,527	257,637	319,239.48	395,571.46	490,154.85	607,353.68	752,575.41
EBITDA	34,217	44,062	51,506	61,914	103,521	107,899.35	133,698.70	165,666.82	205,278.70	254,362.02
EBIT	27,302	35,027	39,725	48,217	91,080	87,178.71	108,023.64	133,852.71	165,857.65	205,515.17
Tax Rate	53.44%	11.96%	13.33%	16.25%	16.20%	22.24%	22.24%	22.24%	22.24%	22.24%
EBIAT	12,712.75	30,836.36	34,429.67	40,382.06	76,322.94	67,793.27	84,003.03	104,088.64	128,976.83	159,815.92
Depreciation	6,915	9,035	11,781	13,697	12,441	20,720.64	25,675.06	31,814.11	39,421.05	48,846.85
Accounts Receivable	-	-2,488	-6,299	-3,892	-8,886	-12,195.89	-12,544.89	-15,544.45	-19,261.22	-23,866.68
Inventories	-	-358	108	271	-442	-716.67	-451.11	-558.98	-692.63	-858.24
Accounts Payable	-	1,241	1,183	28	448	3,457.60	2,270.21	2,813.03	3,485.65	4,319.08
Capital Expenditure	-13,184	-25,139	-23,548	-22,281	-24,640	-42,514	-52,679.34	-65,275.27	-80,882.96	-100,222.54
UFCF	6,443.75	13,127.36	17,654.67	28,205.06	55,243.94	36,544.95	46,272.96	57,337.09	71,046.72	88,034.39
WACC
PV UFCF						33,706.84	39,364.84	44,989.11	51,416.96	58,763.19
SUM PV UFCF										228,240.94

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.42
Free cash flow (t + 1)	89,795.08
Terminal Value	1,398,677.23
Present Value of Terminal Value	933,620.74

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,161,861.68
Net Debt	7,450
Equity Value	1,154,411.68
Shares Outstanding	13,553.47
Equity Value Per Share	85.17