Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
$98.84
+0.89 (+0.91%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 110,855 | 136,819 | 161,857 | 182,527 | 257,637 | 319,239.48 | 395,571.46 | 490,154.85 | 607,353.68 | 752,575.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 34,217 | 44,062 | 51,506 | 61,914 | 103,521 | 107,899.35 | 133,698.70 | 165,666.82 | 205,278.70 | 254,362.02 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 27,302 | 35,027 | 39,725 | 48,217 | 91,080 | 87,178.71 | 108,023.64 | 133,852.71 | 165,857.65 | 205,515.17 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 6,915 | 9,035 | 11,781 | 13,697 | 12,441 | 20,720.64 | 25,675.06 | 31,814.11 | 39,421.05 | 48,846.85 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 101,871 | 109,140 | 119,675 | 136,694 | 139,649 | 239,236.53 | 296,439.35 | 367,319.69 | 455,147.92 | 563,976.39 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 18,705 | 21,193 | 27,492 | 31,384 | 40,270 | 52,465.89 | 65,010.78 | 80,555.23 | 99,816.45 | 123,683.13 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 749 | 1,107 | 999 | 728 | 1,170 | 1,886.67 | 2,337.78 | 2,896.76 | 3,589.39 | 4,447.63 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 3,137 | 4,378 | 5,561 | 5,589 | 6,037 | 9,494.60 | 11,764.81 | 14,577.84 | 18,063.49 | 22,382.57 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -13,184 | -25,139 | -23,548 | -22,281 | -24,640 | -42,514 | -52,679.34 | -65,275.27 | -80,882.96 | -100,222.54 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 98.84 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.069 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 13,553.47 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 16.20 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.02% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.577 |
Total Debt | 28,395 |
Total Equity | 1,339,625.36 |
Total Capital | 1,368,020.36 |
Debt Weighting | 2.08 |
Equity Weighting | 97.92 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 110,855 | 136,819 | 161,857 | 182,527 | 257,637 | 319,239.48 | 395,571.46 | 490,154.85 | 607,353.68 | 752,575.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 34,217 | 44,062 | 51,506 | 61,914 | 103,521 | 107,899.35 | 133,698.70 | 165,666.82 | 205,278.70 | 254,362.02 |
EBIT | 27,302 | 35,027 | 39,725 | 48,217 | 91,080 | 87,178.71 | 108,023.64 | 133,852.71 | 165,857.65 | 205,515.17 |
Tax Rate | 53.44% | 11.96% | 13.33% | 16.25% | 16.20% | 22.24% | 22.24% | 22.24% | 22.24% | 22.24% |
EBIAT | 12,712.75 | 30,836.36 | 34,429.67 | 40,382.06 | 76,322.94 | 67,793.27 | 84,003.03 | 104,088.64 | 128,976.83 | 159,815.92 |
Depreciation | 6,915 | 9,035 | 11,781 | 13,697 | 12,441 | 20,720.64 | 25,675.06 | 31,814.11 | 39,421.05 | 48,846.85 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -2,488 | -6,299 | -3,892 | -8,886 | -12,195.89 | -12,544.89 | -15,544.45 | -19,261.22 | -23,866.68 |
Inventories | - | -358 | 108 | 271 | -442 | -716.67 | -451.11 | -558.98 | -692.63 | -858.24 |
Accounts Payable | - | 1,241 | 1,183 | 28 | 448 | 3,457.60 | 2,270.21 | 2,813.03 | 3,485.65 | 4,319.08 |
Capital Expenditure | -13,184 | -25,139 | -23,548 | -22,281 | -24,640 | -42,514 | -52,679.34 | -65,275.27 | -80,882.96 | -100,222.54 |
UFCF | 6,443.75 | 13,127.36 | 17,654.67 | 28,205.06 | 55,243.94 | 36,544.95 | 46,272.96 | 57,337.09 | 71,046.72 | 88,034.39 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 33,706.84 | 39,364.84 | 44,989.11 | 51,416.96 | 58,763.19 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 228,240.94 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.42 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 89,795.08 |
Terminal Value | 1,398,677.23 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 933,620.74 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,161,861.68 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 7,450 |
Equity Value | 1,154,411.68 |
Shares Outstanding | 13,553.47 |
Equity Value Per Share | 85.17 |