Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

$97.6

-1.22 (-1.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 84.04 | 97.6 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 110,855136,819161,857182,527257,637319,239.48395,571.46490,154.85607,353.68752,575.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 34,21744,06251,50661,914103,521107,899.35133,698.70165,666.82205,278.70254,362.02
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 27,30235,02739,72548,21791,08087,178.71108,023.64133,852.71165,857.65205,515.17
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6,9159,03511,78113,69712,44120,720.6425,675.0631,814.1139,421.0548,846.85
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 101,871109,140119,675136,694139,649239,236.53296,439.35367,319.69455,147.92563,976.39
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 18,70521,19327,49231,38440,27052,465.8965,010.7880,555.2399,816.45123,683.13
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7491,1079997281,1701,886.672,337.782,896.763,589.394,447.63
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,1374,3785,5615,5896,0379,494.6011,764.8114,577.8418,063.4922,382.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -13,184-25,139-23,548-22,281-24,640-42,514-52,679.34-65,275.27-80,882.96-100,222.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 97.6
Beta 1.054
Diluted Shares Outstanding 13,553.47
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.20
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.664
Total Debt 28,395
Total Equity 1,322,819.05
Total Capital 1,351,214.05
Debt Weighting 2.10
Equity Weighting 97.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 110,855136,819161,857182,527257,637319,239.48395,571.46490,154.85607,353.68752,575.41
EBITDA 34,21744,06251,50661,914103,521107,899.35133,698.70165,666.82205,278.70254,362.02
EBIT 27,30235,02739,72548,21791,08087,178.71108,023.64133,852.71165,857.65205,515.17
Tax Rate 53.44%11.96%13.33%16.25%16.20%22.24%22.24%22.24%22.24%22.24%
EBIAT 12,712.7530,836.3634,429.6740,382.0676,322.9467,793.2784,003.03104,088.64128,976.83159,815.92
Depreciation 6,9159,03511,78113,69712,44120,720.6425,675.0631,814.1139,421.0548,846.85
Accounts Receivable --2,488-6,299-3,892-8,886-12,195.89-12,544.89-15,544.45-19,261.22-23,866.68
Inventories --358108271-442-716.67-451.11-558.98-692.63-858.24
Accounts Payable -1,2411,183284483,457.602,270.212,813.033,485.654,319.08
Capital Expenditure -13,184-25,139-23,548-22,281-24,640-42,514-52,679.34-65,275.27-80,882.96-100,222.54
UFCF 6,443.7513,127.3617,654.6728,205.0655,243.9436,544.9546,272.9657,337.0971,046.7288,034.39
WACC
PV UFCF 33,681.9839,306.8144,889.6751,265.4858,546.87
SUM PV UFCF 227,690.82

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.50
Free cash flow (t + 1) 89,795.08
Terminal Value 1,381,462.74
Present Value of Terminal Value 918,735.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,146,426.29
Net Debt 7,450
Equity Value 1,138,976.29
Shares Outstanding 13,553.47
Equity Value Per Share 84.04