Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

$ 2856.12
-78.23 (-2.67%)
Stock DCF: 3,662.18 | 2856.12 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 90,272110,855136,819161,857182,527217,797.29259,882.96310,100.99370,022.82441,523.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 30,41824,39344,06251,50661,91466,927.9479,860.6595,292.38113,706.04135,677.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 24,27417,47835,02739,72548,21751,930.2861,964.9373,938.6288,226.02105,274.22
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6,1446,9159,03511,78113,69714,997.6717,895.7121,353.7625,480.0230,403.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 86,333101,871109,140119,675136,694181,264.11216,290.37258,084.86307,955.43367,462.66
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 14,23218,70521,19327,49231,38435,853.1042,781.1151,047.8560,911.9972,682.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2687491,1079997281,218.661,454.151,735.142,070.422,470.50
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,0413,1374,3785,5615,5896,441.747,686.499,171.7810,944.0713,058.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -10,212-13,184-25,139-23,548-22,281-29,766.36-35,518.21-42,381.51-50,571.02-60,343.02
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2,856.12
Beta 1.044
Diluted Shares Outstanding 687.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.25
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.408
Total Debt 26,772
Total Equity 1,962,234.41
Total Capital 1,989,006.41
Debt Weighting 1.35
Equity Weighting 98.65
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 90,272110,855136,819161,857182,527217,797.29259,882.96310,100.99370,022.82441,523.53
EBITDA 30,41824,39344,06251,50661,91466,927.9479,860.6595,292.38113,706.04135,677.82
EBIT 24,27417,47835,02739,72548,21751,930.2861,964.9373,938.6288,226.02105,274.22
Tax Rate 19.35%53.44%11.96%13.33%16.25%22.87%22.87%22.87%22.87%22.87%
EBIAT 19,578.018,138.3630,836.3634,429.6740,382.0640,056.3547,796.5757,032.4668,053.0381,203.14
Depreciation 6,1446,9159,03511,78113,69714,997.6717,895.7121,353.7625,480.0230,403.61
Accounts Receivable --4,473-2,488-6,299-3,892-4,469.10-6,928.01-8,266.73-9,864.14-11,770.22
Inventories --481-358108271-490.66-235.49-280.99-335.29-400.07
Accounts Payable -1,0961,2411,18328852.741,244.761,485.291,772.292,114.76
Capital Expenditure -10,212-13,184-25,139-23,548-22,281-29,766.36-35,518.21-42,381.51-50,571.02-60,343.02
UFCF 15,510.01-1,988.6413,127.3617,654.6728,205.0621,180.6424,255.3428,942.2834,534.8941,208.18
WACC
PV UFCF 19,919.7221,453.3824,074.9527,016.8630,318.27
SUM PV UFCF 122,783.17

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.33
Free cash flow (t + 1) 43,268.59
Terminal Value 3,253,277.41
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,393,547.37

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,516,330.54
Net Debt 307
Equity Value 2,516,023.54
Shares Outstanding 687.03
Equity Value Per Share 3,662.18