Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

$129.34

+0.78 (+0.60%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 79.90 | 129.34 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	136,819	161,857	182,527	257,637	282,836	340,818.45	410,687.52	494,880.01	596,332.29	718,582.66
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	45,498	49,406	54,921	91,155	90,770	109,976.56	132,522.17	159,689.72	192,426.71	231,874.92
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	36,463	37,625	41,224	78,714	74,842	88,268.62	106,364.03	128,169.05	154,444.19	186,105.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	9,035	11,781	13,697	12,441	15,928	21,707.94	26,158.15	31,520.66	37,982.52	45,769.08
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	109,140	119,675	136,694	139,649	113,762	220,184.92	265,323.66	319,716.01	385,259	464,238.55
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	21,193	27,492	31,384	40,270	40,258	54,213	65,326.87	78,719.13	94,856.85	114,302.86
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,107	999	728	1,170	2,670	2,197.11	2,647.53	3,190.28	3,844.30	4,632.40
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	4,378	5,561	5,589	6,037	5,128	9,443.33	11,379.24	13,712.03	16,523.05	19,910.34
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-25,139	-23,548	-22,281	-24,640	-31,485	-44,868.92	-54,067.22	-65,151.20	-78,507.44	-94,601.77
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 129.34
Beta	1.060
Diluted Shares Outstanding	13,159
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	15.92
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.575
Total Debt	29,679
Total Equity	1,701,985.06
Total Capital	1,731,664.06
Debt Weighting	1.71
Equity Weighting	98.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	136,819	161,857	182,527	257,637	282,836	340,818.45	410,687.52	494,880.01	596,332.29	718,582.66
EBITDA	45,498	49,406	54,921	91,155	90,770	109,976.56	132,522.17	159,689.72	192,426.71	231,874.92
EBIT	36,463	37,625	41,224	78,714	74,842	88,268.62	106,364.03	128,169.05	154,444.19	186,105.84
Tax Rate	11.96%	13.33%	16.25%	16.20%	15.92%	14.73%	14.73%	14.73%	14.73%	14.73%
EBIAT	32,100.56	32,609.60	34,525.38	65,960.52	62,926.54	75,263.75	90,693.11	109,285.54	131,689.49	158,686.33
Depreciation	9,035	11,781	13,697	12,441	15,928	21,707.94	26,158.15	31,520.66	37,982.52	45,769.08
Accounts Receivable	-	-6,299	-3,892	-8,886	12	-13,955	-11,113.87	-13,392.26	-16,137.72	-19,446.01
Inventories	-	108	271	-442	-1,500	472.89	-450.42	-542.75	-654.02	-788.10
Accounts Payable	-	1,183	28	448	-909	4,315.33	1,935.92	2,332.79	2,811.02	3,387.29
Capital Expenditure	-25,139	-23,548	-22,281	-24,640	-31,485	-44,868.92	-54,067.22	-65,151.20	-78,507.44	-94,601.77
UFCF	15,996.56	15,834.60	22,348.38	44,881.52	44,972.54	42,935.98	53,155.67	64,052.78	77,183.84	93,006.82
WACC
PV UFCF						39,236.02	44,389.14	48,879.73	53,824.60	59,269.71
SUM PV UFCF										245,599.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.43
Free cash flow (t + 1)	94,866.96
Terminal Value	1,276,809.67
Present Value of Terminal Value	813,662.25

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,059,261.45
Net Debt	7,800
Equity Value	1,051,461.45
Shares Outstanding	13,159
Equity Value Per Share	79.90