Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

$129.34

+0.78 (+0.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 79.90 | 129.34 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 136,819161,857182,527257,637282,836340,818.45410,687.52494,880.01596,332.29718,582.66
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 45,49849,40654,92191,15590,770109,976.56132,522.17159,689.72192,426.71231,874.92
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 36,46337,62541,22478,71474,84288,268.62106,364.03128,169.05154,444.19186,105.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 9,03511,78113,69712,44115,92821,707.9426,158.1531,520.6637,982.5245,769.08
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 109,140119,675136,694139,649113,762220,184.92265,323.66319,716.01385,259464,238.55
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 21,19327,49231,38440,27040,25854,21365,326.8778,719.1394,856.85114,302.86
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,1079997281,1702,6702,197.112,647.533,190.283,844.304,632.40
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4,3785,5615,5896,0375,1289,443.3311,379.2413,712.0316,523.0519,910.34
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -25,139-23,548-22,281-24,640-31,485-44,868.92-54,067.22-65,151.20-78,507.44-94,601.77
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 129.34
Beta 1.060
Diluted Shares Outstanding 13,159
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.92
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.575
Total Debt 29,679
Total Equity 1,701,985.06
Total Capital 1,731,664.06
Debt Weighting 1.71
Equity Weighting 98.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 136,819161,857182,527257,637282,836340,818.45410,687.52494,880.01596,332.29718,582.66
EBITDA 45,49849,40654,92191,15590,770109,976.56132,522.17159,689.72192,426.71231,874.92
EBIT 36,46337,62541,22478,71474,84288,268.62106,364.03128,169.05154,444.19186,105.84
Tax Rate 11.96%13.33%16.25%16.20%15.92%14.73%14.73%14.73%14.73%14.73%
EBIAT 32,100.5632,609.6034,525.3865,960.5262,926.5475,263.7590,693.11109,285.54131,689.49158,686.33
Depreciation 9,03511,78113,69712,44115,92821,707.9426,158.1531,520.6637,982.5245,769.08
Accounts Receivable --6,299-3,892-8,88612-13,955-11,113.87-13,392.26-16,137.72-19,446.01
Inventories -108271-442-1,500472.89-450.42-542.75-654.02-788.10
Accounts Payable -1,18328448-9094,315.331,935.922,332.792,811.023,387.29
Capital Expenditure -25,139-23,548-22,281-24,640-31,485-44,868.92-54,067.22-65,151.20-78,507.44-94,601.77
UFCF 15,996.5615,834.6022,348.3844,881.5244,972.5442,935.9853,155.6764,052.7877,183.8493,006.82
WACC
PV UFCF 39,236.0244,389.1448,879.7353,824.6059,269.71
SUM PV UFCF 245,599.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) 94,866.96
Terminal Value 1,276,809.67
Present Value of Terminal Value 813,662.25

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,059,261.45
Net Debt 7,800
Equity Value 1,051,461.45
Shares Outstanding 13,159
Equity Value Per Share 79.90