Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
$129.34
+0.78 (+0.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 136,819 | 161,857 | 182,527 | 257,637 | 282,836 | 340,818.45 | 410,687.52 | 494,880.01 | 596,332.29 | 718,582.66 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 45,498 | 49,406 | 54,921 | 91,155 | 90,770 | 109,976.56 | 132,522.17 | 159,689.72 | 192,426.71 | 231,874.92 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 36,463 | 37,625 | 41,224 | 78,714 | 74,842 | 88,268.62 | 106,364.03 | 128,169.05 | 154,444.19 | 186,105.84 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 9,035 | 11,781 | 13,697 | 12,441 | 15,928 | 21,707.94 | 26,158.15 | 31,520.66 | 37,982.52 | 45,769.08 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 109,140 | 119,675 | 136,694 | 139,649 | 113,762 | 220,184.92 | 265,323.66 | 319,716.01 | 385,259 | 464,238.55 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 21,193 | 27,492 | 31,384 | 40,270 | 40,258 | 54,213 | 65,326.87 | 78,719.13 | 94,856.85 | 114,302.86 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,107 | 999 | 728 | 1,170 | 2,670 | 2,197.11 | 2,647.53 | 3,190.28 | 3,844.30 | 4,632.40 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 4,378 | 5,561 | 5,589 | 6,037 | 5,128 | 9,443.33 | 11,379.24 | 13,712.03 | 16,523.05 | 19,910.34 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -25,139 | -23,548 | -22,281 | -24,640 | -31,485 | -44,868.92 | -54,067.22 | -65,151.20 | -78,507.44 | -94,601.77 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 129.34 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.060 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 13,159 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 15.92 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.01% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.575 |
Total Debt | 29,679 |
Total Equity | 1,701,985.06 |
Total Capital | 1,731,664.06 |
Debt Weighting | 1.71 |
Equity Weighting | 98.29 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 136,819 | 161,857 | 182,527 | 257,637 | 282,836 | 340,818.45 | 410,687.52 | 494,880.01 | 596,332.29 | 718,582.66 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 45,498 | 49,406 | 54,921 | 91,155 | 90,770 | 109,976.56 | 132,522.17 | 159,689.72 | 192,426.71 | 231,874.92 |
EBIT | 36,463 | 37,625 | 41,224 | 78,714 | 74,842 | 88,268.62 | 106,364.03 | 128,169.05 | 154,444.19 | 186,105.84 |
Tax Rate | 11.96% | 13.33% | 16.25% | 16.20% | 15.92% | 14.73% | 14.73% | 14.73% | 14.73% | 14.73% |
EBIAT | 32,100.56 | 32,609.60 | 34,525.38 | 65,960.52 | 62,926.54 | 75,263.75 | 90,693.11 | 109,285.54 | 131,689.49 | 158,686.33 |
Depreciation | 9,035 | 11,781 | 13,697 | 12,441 | 15,928 | 21,707.94 | 26,158.15 | 31,520.66 | 37,982.52 | 45,769.08 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -6,299 | -3,892 | -8,886 | 12 | -13,955 | -11,113.87 | -13,392.26 | -16,137.72 | -19,446.01 |
Inventories | - | 108 | 271 | -442 | -1,500 | 472.89 | -450.42 | -542.75 | -654.02 | -788.10 |
Accounts Payable | - | 1,183 | 28 | 448 | -909 | 4,315.33 | 1,935.92 | 2,332.79 | 2,811.02 | 3,387.29 |
Capital Expenditure | -25,139 | -23,548 | -22,281 | -24,640 | -31,485 | -44,868.92 | -54,067.22 | -65,151.20 | -78,507.44 | -94,601.77 |
UFCF | 15,996.56 | 15,834.60 | 22,348.38 | 44,881.52 | 44,972.54 | 42,935.98 | 53,155.67 | 64,052.78 | 77,183.84 | 93,006.82 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 39,236.02 | 44,389.14 | 48,879.73 | 53,824.60 | 59,269.71 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 245,599.21 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.43 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 94,866.96 |
Terminal Value | 1,276,809.67 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 813,662.25 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,059,261.45 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 7,800 |
Equity Value | 1,051,461.45 |
Shares Outstanding | 13,159 |
Equity Value Per Share | 79.90 |