Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Genuine Parts Company (GPC)

$146.99

+0.64 (+0.44%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 109.77 | 146.99 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	18,735.07	17,522.23	16,537.43	18,870.51	22,095.97	23,151.42	24,257.28	25,415.96	26,629.99	27,902
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,419.17	1,354.91	1,302.66	1,553.47	1,994.31	1,872.60	1,962.05	2,055.77	2,153.96	2,256.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,177.54	1,097.65	1,029.82	1,262.50	1,646.49	1,524.22	1,597.03	1,673.31	1,753.24	1,836.99
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	241.64	257.26	272.84	290.97	347.82	348.38	365.02	382.45	400.72	419.86
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	333.55	276.99	990.17	714.70	653.46	745.17	780.76	818.06	857.13	898.07
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	2,493.64	2,440.25	1,556.97	1,797.96	2,188.87	2,596.91	2,720.96	2,850.93	2,987.11	3,129.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	3,609.39	3,443.88	3,506.27	3,889.92	4,441.65	4,669.04	4,892.07	5,125.74	5,370.58	5,627.12
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	3,995.79	3,948	4,128.08	4,804.94	5,456.55	5,509.05	5,772.20	6,047.92	6,336.80	6,639.49
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-232.42	-277.87	-153.50	-266.14	-339.63	-310.32	-325.15	-340.68	-356.95	-374
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 146.99
Beta	0.909
Diluted Shares Outstanding	142.32
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.79
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.33%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.833
Total Debt	4,164.84
Total Equity	20,919.91
Total Capital	25,084.75
Debt Weighting	16.60
Equity Weighting	83.40
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	18,735.07	17,522.23	16,537.43	18,870.51	22,095.97	23,151.42	24,257.28	25,415.96	26,629.99	27,902
EBITDA	1,419.17	1,354.91	1,302.66	1,553.47	1,994.31	1,872.60	1,962.05	2,055.77	2,153.96	2,256.85
EBIT	1,177.54	1,097.65	1,029.82	1,262.50	1,646.49	1,524.22	1,597.03	1,673.31	1,753.24	1,836.99
Tax Rate	24.65%	27.72%	56.93%	25.12%	24.79%	31.84%	31.84%	31.84%	31.84%	31.84%
EBIAT	887.27	793.37	443.55	945.33	1,238.27	1,038.86	1,088.48	1,140.48	1,194.95	1,252.03
Depreciation	241.64	257.26	272.84	290.97	347.82	348.38	365.02	382.45	400.72	419.86
Accounts Receivable	-	53.38	883.29	-240.99	-390.91	-408.05	-124.05	-129.97	-136.18	-142.68
Inventories	-	165.51	-62.40	-383.65	-551.73	-227.40	-223.02	-233.68	-244.84	-256.53
Accounts Payable	-	-47.79	180.08	676.85	651.61	52.50	263.15	275.72	288.89	302.69
Capital Expenditure	-232.42	-277.87	-153.50	-266.14	-339.63	-310.32	-325.15	-340.68	-356.95	-374
UFCF	896.49	943.87	1,563.86	1,022.38	955.42	493.98	1,044.43	1,094.32	1,146.60	1,201.36
WACC
PV UFCF						459.13	902.27	878.68	855.70	833.33
SUM PV UFCF										3,929.11

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.59
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,225.39
Terminal Value	21,921.13
Present Value of Terminal Value	15,205.60

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	19,134.70
Net Debt	3,511.38
Equity Value	15,623.33
Shares Outstanding	142.32
Equity Value Per Share	109.77