Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Genuine Parts Company (GPC)

$153.7

+0.35 (+0.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 79.57 | 153.7 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 18,735.0719,392.3016,537.4318,870.5122,095.9723,200.0424,359.2825,576.4426,854.4228,196.26
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,419.171,196.30553.431,553.471,994.311,593.761,673.401,757.011,844.811,936.99
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,177.54926.01280.581,262.501,646.491,248.111,310.471,375.951,444.711,516.89
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 241.64270.29272.84290.97347.82345.65362.93381.06400.10420.09
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 333.55276.99990.17714.70653.46739.66776.62815.42856.17898.95
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,493.642,635.151,556.971,797.962,188.872,586.692,715.942,851.652,994.133,143.74
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,609.393,831.183,506.273,889.924,441.654,683.584,917.605,163.325,421.325,692.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,995.794,106.164,128.084,804.945,456.555,457.655,730.356,016.686,317.326,632.98
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -232.42-297.87-153.50-266.14-339.63-308.66-324.09-340.28-357.28-375.13
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 153.7
Beta 0.898
Diluted Shares Outstanding 142.32
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.79
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.33%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.979
Total Debt 4,164.84
Total Equity 21,874.89
Total Capital 26,039.73
Debt Weighting 15.99
Equity Weighting 84.01
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 18,735.0719,392.3016,537.4318,870.5122,095.9723,200.0424,359.2825,576.4426,854.4228,196.26
EBITDA 1,419.171,196.30553.431,553.471,994.311,593.761,673.401,757.011,844.811,936.99
EBIT 1,177.54926.01280.581,262.501,646.491,248.111,310.471,375.951,444.711,516.89
Tax Rate 24.65%25.20%107.67%25.12%24.79%41.49%41.49%41.49%41.49%41.49%
EBIAT 887.27692.68-21.52945.331,238.27730.31766.80805.11845.34887.58
Depreciation 241.64270.29272.84290.97347.82345.65362.93381.06400.10420.09
Accounts Receivable --141.521,078.19-240.99-390.91-397.82-129.25-135.71-142.49-149.61
Inventories --221.79324.91-383.65-551.73-241.93-234.02-245.72-258-270.89
Accounts Payable -110.3721.92676.85651.611.10272.70286.33300.64315.66
Capital Expenditure -232.42-297.87-153.50-266.14-339.63-308.66-324.09-340.28-357.28-375.13
UFCF 896.49412.161,522.841,022.38955.42128.65715.07750.80788.31827.70
WACC
PV UFCF 120.32625.50614.25603.20592.35
SUM PV UFCF 2,555.63

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) 844.26
Terminal Value 17,159.70
Present Value of Terminal Value 12,280.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 14,836.10
Net Debt 3,511.38
Equity Value 11,324.72
Shares Outstanding 142.32
Equity Value Per Share 79.57