Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Genuine Parts Company (GPC)
$146.99
+0.64 (+0.44%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 18,735.07 | 17,522.23 | 16,537.43 | 18,870.51 | 22,095.97 | 23,151.42 | 24,257.28 | 25,415.96 | 26,629.99 | 27,902 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,419.17 | 1,354.91 | 1,302.66 | 1,553.47 | 1,994.31 | 1,872.60 | 1,962.05 | 2,055.77 | 2,153.96 | 2,256.85 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,177.54 | 1,097.65 | 1,029.82 | 1,262.50 | 1,646.49 | 1,524.22 | 1,597.03 | 1,673.31 | 1,753.24 | 1,836.99 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 241.64 | 257.26 | 272.84 | 290.97 | 347.82 | 348.38 | 365.02 | 382.45 | 400.72 | 419.86 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 333.55 | 276.99 | 990.17 | 714.70 | 653.46 | 745.17 | 780.76 | 818.06 | 857.13 | 898.07 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2,493.64 | 2,440.25 | 1,556.97 | 1,797.96 | 2,188.87 | 2,596.91 | 2,720.96 | 2,850.93 | 2,987.11 | 3,129.79 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 3,609.39 | 3,443.88 | 3,506.27 | 3,889.92 | 4,441.65 | 4,669.04 | 4,892.07 | 5,125.74 | 5,370.58 | 5,627.12 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 3,995.79 | 3,948 | 4,128.08 | 4,804.94 | 5,456.55 | 5,509.05 | 5,772.20 | 6,047.92 | 6,336.80 | 6,639.49 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -232.42 | -277.87 | -153.50 | -266.14 | -339.63 | -310.32 | -325.15 | -340.68 | -356.95 | -374 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 146.99 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.909 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 142.32 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.79 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.33% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.833 |
Total Debt | 4,164.84 |
Total Equity | 20,919.91 |
Total Capital | 25,084.75 |
Debt Weighting | 16.60 |
Equity Weighting | 83.40 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 18,735.07 | 17,522.23 | 16,537.43 | 18,870.51 | 22,095.97 | 23,151.42 | 24,257.28 | 25,415.96 | 26,629.99 | 27,902 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,419.17 | 1,354.91 | 1,302.66 | 1,553.47 | 1,994.31 | 1,872.60 | 1,962.05 | 2,055.77 | 2,153.96 | 2,256.85 |
EBIT | 1,177.54 | 1,097.65 | 1,029.82 | 1,262.50 | 1,646.49 | 1,524.22 | 1,597.03 | 1,673.31 | 1,753.24 | 1,836.99 |
Tax Rate | 24.65% | 27.72% | 56.93% | 25.12% | 24.79% | 31.84% | 31.84% | 31.84% | 31.84% | 31.84% |
EBIAT | 887.27 | 793.37 | 443.55 | 945.33 | 1,238.27 | 1,038.86 | 1,088.48 | 1,140.48 | 1,194.95 | 1,252.03 |
Depreciation | 241.64 | 257.26 | 272.84 | 290.97 | 347.82 | 348.38 | 365.02 | 382.45 | 400.72 | 419.86 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 53.38 | 883.29 | -240.99 | -390.91 | -408.05 | -124.05 | -129.97 | -136.18 | -142.68 |
Inventories | - | 165.51 | -62.40 | -383.65 | -551.73 | -227.40 | -223.02 | -233.68 | -244.84 | -256.53 |
Accounts Payable | - | -47.79 | 180.08 | 676.85 | 651.61 | 52.50 | 263.15 | 275.72 | 288.89 | 302.69 |
Capital Expenditure | -232.42 | -277.87 | -153.50 | -266.14 | -339.63 | -310.32 | -325.15 | -340.68 | -356.95 | -374 |
UFCF | 896.49 | 943.87 | 1,563.86 | 1,022.38 | 955.42 | 493.98 | 1,044.43 | 1,094.32 | 1,146.60 | 1,201.36 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 459.13 | 902.27 | 878.68 | 855.70 | 833.33 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 3,929.11 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.59 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,225.39 |
Terminal Value | 21,921.13 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 15,205.60 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 19,134.70 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 3,511.38 |
Equity Value | 15,623.33 |
Shares Outstanding | 142.32 |
Equity Value Per Share | 109.77 |