Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Genuine Parts Company (GPC)
$153.7
+0.35 (+0.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 18,735.07 | 19,392.30 | 16,537.43 | 18,870.51 | 22,095.97 | 23,200.04 | 24,359.28 | 25,576.44 | 26,854.42 | 28,196.26 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,419.17 | 1,196.30 | 553.43 | 1,553.47 | 1,994.31 | 1,593.76 | 1,673.40 | 1,757.01 | 1,844.81 | 1,936.99 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,177.54 | 926.01 | 280.58 | 1,262.50 | 1,646.49 | 1,248.11 | 1,310.47 | 1,375.95 | 1,444.71 | 1,516.89 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 241.64 | 270.29 | 272.84 | 290.97 | 347.82 | 345.65 | 362.93 | 381.06 | 400.10 | 420.09 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 333.55 | 276.99 | 990.17 | 714.70 | 653.46 | 739.66 | 776.62 | 815.42 | 856.17 | 898.95 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2,493.64 | 2,635.15 | 1,556.97 | 1,797.96 | 2,188.87 | 2,586.69 | 2,715.94 | 2,851.65 | 2,994.13 | 3,143.74 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 3,609.39 | 3,831.18 | 3,506.27 | 3,889.92 | 4,441.65 | 4,683.58 | 4,917.60 | 5,163.32 | 5,421.32 | 5,692.20 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 3,995.79 | 4,106.16 | 4,128.08 | 4,804.94 | 5,456.55 | 5,457.65 | 5,730.35 | 6,016.68 | 6,317.32 | 6,632.98 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -232.42 | -297.87 | -153.50 | -266.14 | -339.63 | -308.66 | -324.09 | -340.28 | -357.28 | -375.13 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 153.7 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.898 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 142.32 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.79 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.33% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.979 |
Total Debt | 4,164.84 |
Total Equity | 21,874.89 |
Total Capital | 26,039.73 |
Debt Weighting | 15.99 |
Equity Weighting | 84.01 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 18,735.07 | 19,392.30 | 16,537.43 | 18,870.51 | 22,095.97 | 23,200.04 | 24,359.28 | 25,576.44 | 26,854.42 | 28,196.26 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,419.17 | 1,196.30 | 553.43 | 1,553.47 | 1,994.31 | 1,593.76 | 1,673.40 | 1,757.01 | 1,844.81 | 1,936.99 |
EBIT | 1,177.54 | 926.01 | 280.58 | 1,262.50 | 1,646.49 | 1,248.11 | 1,310.47 | 1,375.95 | 1,444.71 | 1,516.89 |
Tax Rate | 24.65% | 25.20% | 107.67% | 25.12% | 24.79% | 41.49% | 41.49% | 41.49% | 41.49% | 41.49% |
EBIAT | 887.27 | 692.68 | -21.52 | 945.33 | 1,238.27 | 730.31 | 766.80 | 805.11 | 845.34 | 887.58 |
Depreciation | 241.64 | 270.29 | 272.84 | 290.97 | 347.82 | 345.65 | 362.93 | 381.06 | 400.10 | 420.09 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -141.52 | 1,078.19 | -240.99 | -390.91 | -397.82 | -129.25 | -135.71 | -142.49 | -149.61 |
Inventories | - | -221.79 | 324.91 | -383.65 | -551.73 | -241.93 | -234.02 | -245.72 | -258 | -270.89 |
Accounts Payable | - | 110.37 | 21.92 | 676.85 | 651.61 | 1.10 | 272.70 | 286.33 | 300.64 | 315.66 |
Capital Expenditure | -232.42 | -297.87 | -153.50 | -266.14 | -339.63 | -308.66 | -324.09 | -340.28 | -357.28 | -375.13 |
UFCF | 896.49 | 412.16 | 1,522.84 | 1,022.38 | 955.42 | 128.65 | 715.07 | 750.80 | 788.31 | 827.70 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 120.32 | 625.50 | 614.25 | 603.20 | 592.35 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 2,555.63 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.92 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 844.26 |
Terminal Value | 17,159.70 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 12,280.47 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 14,836.10 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 3,511.38 |
Equity Value | 11,324.72 |
Shares Outstanding | 142.32 |
Equity Value Per Share | 79.57 |