Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Genuine Parts Company (GPC)

$146.99

+0.64 (+0.44%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 109.77 | 146.99 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 18,735.0717,522.2316,537.4318,870.5122,095.9723,151.4224,257.2825,415.9626,629.9927,902
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,419.171,354.911,302.661,553.471,994.311,872.601,962.052,055.772,153.962,256.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,177.541,097.651,029.821,262.501,646.491,524.221,597.031,673.311,753.241,836.99
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 241.64257.26272.84290.97347.82348.38365.02382.45400.72419.86
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 333.55276.99990.17714.70653.46745.17780.76818.06857.13898.07
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,493.642,440.251,556.971,797.962,188.872,596.912,720.962,850.932,987.113,129.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,609.393,443.883,506.273,889.924,441.654,669.044,892.075,125.745,370.585,627.12
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,995.793,9484,128.084,804.945,456.555,509.055,772.206,047.926,336.806,639.49
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -232.42-277.87-153.50-266.14-339.63-310.32-325.15-340.68-356.95-374
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 146.99
Beta 0.909
Diluted Shares Outstanding 142.32
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.79
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.33%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.833
Total Debt 4,164.84
Total Equity 20,919.91
Total Capital 25,084.75
Debt Weighting 16.60
Equity Weighting 83.40
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 18,735.0717,522.2316,537.4318,870.5122,095.9723,151.4224,257.2825,415.9626,629.9927,902
EBITDA 1,419.171,354.911,302.661,553.471,994.311,872.601,962.052,055.772,153.962,256.85
EBIT 1,177.541,097.651,029.821,262.501,646.491,524.221,597.031,673.311,753.241,836.99
Tax Rate 24.65%27.72%56.93%25.12%24.79%31.84%31.84%31.84%31.84%31.84%
EBIAT 887.27793.37443.55945.331,238.271,038.861,088.481,140.481,194.951,252.03
Depreciation 241.64257.26272.84290.97347.82348.38365.02382.45400.72419.86
Accounts Receivable -53.38883.29-240.99-390.91-408.05-124.05-129.97-136.18-142.68
Inventories -165.51-62.40-383.65-551.73-227.40-223.02-233.68-244.84-256.53
Accounts Payable --47.79180.08676.85651.6152.50263.15275.72288.89302.69
Capital Expenditure -232.42-277.87-153.50-266.14-339.63-310.32-325.15-340.68-356.95-374
UFCF 896.49943.871,563.861,022.38955.42493.981,044.431,094.321,146.601,201.36
WACC
PV UFCF 459.13902.27878.68855.70833.33
SUM PV UFCF 3,929.11

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.59
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,225.39
Terminal Value 21,921.13
Present Value of Terminal Value 15,205.60

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 19,134.70
Net Debt 3,511.38
Equity Value 15,623.33
Shares Outstanding 142.32
Equity Value Per Share 109.77