Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Grifols, S.A. (GRFS)

$8.66

-0.18 (-2.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 537.81 | 8.66 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,318.074,486.725,098.695,340.044,933.125,113.905,301.305,495.585,696.975,905.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,162.131,230.851,420.441,332.64861.511,274.641,321.351,369.771,419.971,472
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 946.641,002.241,117.991,011.11501.74974.641,010.351,047.381,085.761,125.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 215.49228.61302.46321.53359.77300310.99322.39334.20346.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 886.521,033.792,469.41590.512,684.601,610.691,669.721,730.911,794.341,860.10
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 385.26401.57470.50504.20495.48476.47493.93512.03530.80550.25
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,629.291,949.362,342.592,002.282,259.352,152.132,2312,312.752,397.512,485.37
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 423.10561.88581.88601.62628.99590.66612.31634.74658.01682.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -322.97-307.72-412.30-362.56-315.09-364.12-377.47-391.30-405.64-420.50
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.66
Beta 0.136
Diluted Shares Outstanding 681.56
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 47.84
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.31%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.534
Total Debt 9,324.31
Total Equity 5,902.28
Total Capital 15,226.59
Debt Weighting 61.24
Equity Weighting 38.76
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,318.074,486.725,098.695,340.044,933.125,113.905,301.305,495.585,696.975,905.74
EBITDA 1,162.131,230.851,420.441,332.64861.511,274.641,321.351,369.771,419.971,472
EBIT 946.641,002.241,117.991,011.11501.74974.641,010.351,047.381,085.761,125.55
Tax Rate 4.75%17.80%23.49%29.60%47.84%24.70%24.70%24.70%24.70%24.70%
EBIAT 901.71823.84855.34711.81261.72733.94760.84788.72817.63847.59
Depreciation 215.49228.61302.46321.53359.77300310.99322.39334.20346.45
Accounts Receivable --16.31-68.92-33.708.7219-17.46-18.10-18.76-19.45
Inventories --320.07-393.23340.31-257.07107.23-78.87-81.76-84.75-87.86
Accounts Payable -138.792019.7427.37-38.3321.6522.4423.2624.11
Capital Expenditure -322.97-307.72-412.31-362.56-315.09-364.12-377.47-391.30-405.64-420.50
UFCF 794.23547.14303.34997.1285.42757.72619.68642.39665.94690.34
WACC
PV UFCF 741.63593.64602.33611.14620.08
SUM PV UFCF 3,168.81

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.17
Free cash flow (t + 1) 704.15
Terminal Value 414,203.74
Present Value of Terminal Value 372,046.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 375,215.15
Net Debt 8,668.81
Equity Value 366,546.34
Shares Outstanding 681.56
Equity Value Per Share 537.81