Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)

$4.72

+0.10 (+2.16%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -4.14 | 4.72 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,274.04	1,615.22	1,144.43	1,778.91	2,597.92	2,879.54	3,191.70	3,537.69	3,921.19	4,346.27
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	234.36	-147.54	-71.10	38.49	643.71	126.13	139.80	154.96	171.76	190.38
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	115.22	-270.56	-179.29	-58.83	562.15	-51.94	-57.57	-63.81	-70.73	-78.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	119.14	123.02	108.19	97.33	81.56	178.07	197.37	218.77	242.48	268.77
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	219.17	100.40	103.72	114.50	317.94	251.05	278.26	308.42	341.86	378.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	197.63	339.95	257.41	391.57	434.20	523.82	580.60	643.54	713.30	790.63
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	455.78	353.31	246.24	271.86	500.08	564.19	625.35	693.14	768.28	851.56
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	241.94	189.09	147.51	201	219.67	316.69	351.02	389.07	431.25	478
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-109.45	-32.63	-32.91	-27.60	-53.30	-76.66	-84.97	-94.19	-104.40	-115.71
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 4.72
Beta	2.297
Diluted Shares Outstanding	176.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	26.00
After-tax Cost of Debt	-9.32%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	14.407
Total Debt	443.15
Total Equity	833.12
Total Capital	1,276.26
Debt Weighting	34.72
Equity Weighting	65.28
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,274.04	1,615.22	1,144.43	1,778.91	2,597.92	2,879.54	3,191.70	3,537.69	3,921.19	4,346.27
EBITDA	234.36	-147.54	-71.10	38.49	643.71	126.13	139.80	154.96	171.76	190.38
EBIT	115.22	-270.56	-179.29	-58.83	562.15	-51.94	-57.57	-63.81	-70.73	-78.39
Tax Rate	10.55%	31.86%	-10.75%	7.76%	26.00%	13.08%	13.08%	13.08%	13.08%	13.08%
EBIAT	103.07	-184.35	-198.57	-54.27	416	-45.14	-50.04	-55.46	-61.47	-68.14
Depreciation	119.14	123.02	108.19	97.33	81.56	178.07	197.37	218.77	242.48	268.77
Accounts Receivable	-	-142.32	82.54	-134.16	-42.62	-89.62	-56.78	-62.94	-69.76	-77.33
Inventories	-	102.47	107.07	-25.62	-228.22	-64.11	-61.16	-67.79	-75.14	-83.28
Accounts Payable	-	-52.84	-41.58	53.49	18.67	97.03	34.33	38.05	42.18	46.75
Capital Expenditure	-109.45	-32.63	-32.91	-27.60	-53.30	-76.66	-84.97	-94.19	-104.40	-115.71
UFCF	112.76	-186.65	24.74	-90.83	192.09	-0.44	-21.25	-23.56	-26.11	-28.94
WACC
PV UFCF						-0.41	-18.85	-19.68	-20.55	-21.45
SUM PV UFCF										-80.95

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.17
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-29.52
Terminal Value	-707.88
Present Value of Terminal Value	-524.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-605.70
Net Debt	125.21
Equity Value	-730.91
Shares Outstanding	176.51
Equity Value Per Share	-4.14