Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Glory Star New Media Group Holdings... (GSMG)
$0.405
+0.06 (+17.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 57.80 | 65.78 | 123.76 | 153.01 | 157.08 | 207.44 | 273.95 | 361.78 | 477.77 | 630.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 14.08 | 26.89 | 34.56 | 38.55 | 30.35 | 57.12 | 75.43 | 99.62 | 131.55 | 173.73 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 13.78 | 25.84 | 31.20 | 36.03 | 27.01 | 53.55 | 70.72 | 93.40 | 123.34 | 162.88 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.30 | 1.05 | 3.36 | 2.52 | 3.34 | 3.57 | 4.71 | 6.22 | 8.21 | 10.85 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2.44 | 6.92 | 19.46 | 77.30 | 70.48 | 52.21 | 68.95 | 91.06 | 120.26 | 158.81 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 35.55 | 51.06 | 81.11 | 63.14 | 98.03 | 127.92 | 168.94 | 223.10 | 294.63 | 389.09 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 7.03 | 2.17 | -1.73 | 7.17 | 7.36 | 9.72 | 12.84 | 16.96 | 22.40 | 29.58 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.81 | 4.55 | 7.89 | 12.88 | 6.40 | 11.27 | 14.89 | 19.66 | 25.96 | 34.29 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.15 | -15.32 | -2.78 | -2.79 | -7.99 | -13.57 | -17.92 | -23.67 | -31.25 | -41.28 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.405 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.856 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 31.29 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.14 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.11% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 0.070 |
| Total Debt | 5.10 |
| Total Equity | 12.67 |
| Total Capital | 17.77 |
| Debt Weighting | 28.70 |
| Equity Weighting | 71.30 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 57.80 | 65.78 | 123.76 | 153.01 | 157.08 | 207.44 | 273.95 | 361.78 | 477.77 | 630.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 14.08 | 26.89 | 34.56 | 38.55 | 30.35 | 57.12 | 75.43 | 99.62 | 131.55 | 173.73 |
| EBIT | 13.78 | 25.84 | 31.20 | 36.03 | 27.01 | 53.55 | 70.72 | 93.40 | 123.34 | 162.88 |
| Tax Rate | 2.89% | 1.02% | 5.31% | 2.87% | -0.14% | 2.39% | 2.39% | 2.39% | 2.39% | 2.39% |
| EBIAT | 13.39 | 25.57 | 29.54 | 35 | 27.05 | 52.27 | 69.03 | 91.16 | 120.39 | 158.99 |
| Depreciation | 0.30 | 1.05 | 3.36 | 2.52 | 3.34 | 3.57 | 4.71 | 6.22 | 8.21 | 10.85 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -15.51 | -30.05 | 17.97 | -34.90 | -29.89 | -41.01 | -54.16 | -71.53 | -94.46 |
| Inventories | - | 4.87 | 3.90 | -8.90 | -0.19 | -2.36 | -3.12 | -4.12 | -5.44 | -7.18 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 3.74 | 3.34 | 4.99 | -6.47 | 4.87 | 3.61 | 4.77 | 6.30 | 8.32 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.15 | -15.32 | -2.78 | -2.79 | -7.99 | -13.57 | -17.92 | -23.67 | -31.25 | -41.28 |
| UFCF | 13.53 | 4.40 | 7.31 | 48.79 | -19.17 | 14.89 | 15.30 | 20.21 | 26.69 | 35.25 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 14.71 | 14.93 | 19.48 | 25.42 | 33.16 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 107.69 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 1.23 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 35.95 |
| Terminal Value | -4,668.95 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -4,392.11 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -4,284.42 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -65.38 |
| Equity Value | -4,219.03 |
| Shares Outstanding | 31.29 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -134.85 |