Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

GWG Holdings, Inc. (GWGH)

$2.89

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -70,162,154,018.20 | 2.89 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 68.5563.58-0.3992.28124.37-7,280.66426,209.02-24,950,224.781,460,583,168.90-85,502,363,700.36
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 43.0731.69-39.32280.89-56.68-152,0918,903,388.99-521,203,324.5530,511,180,168.33-1,786,120,831,204.54
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 43.0731.69-39.32280.89-77.61-150,865.708,831,660.18-517,004,328.4630,265,371,440.77-1,771,731,217,745.78
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----20.93-1,225.3071,728.81-4,198,996.08245,808,727.56-14,389,613,458.76
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 78.49114.42114.5979.0785.25420,978.10-24,644,007.281,442,657,233.30-84,452,981,578.224,943,867,422,432.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.3416.66201.23351.7014.33744,552.58-43,586,019.092,551,520,334.79-149,365,694,675.188,743,849,869,287.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.236.399.2827.84-725.5042,470.77-2,486,233.92145,543,835.57-8,520,118,695.23498,766,727,538.34
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -----3.28192.07-11,243.72658,205.89-38,531,294.042,255,617,336.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.89
Beta -0.173
Diluted Shares Outstanding 28.06
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 4.03
After-tax Cost of Debt 96.93%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.445
Total Debt 153.09
Total Equity 81.10
Total Capital 234.19
Debt Weighting 65.37
Equity Weighting 34.63
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 68.5563.58-0.3992.28124.37-7,280.66426,209.02-24,950,224.781,460,583,168.90-85,502,363,700.36
EBITDA 43.0731.69-39.32280.89-56.68-152,0918,903,388.99-521,203,324.5530,511,180,168.33-1,786,120,831,204.54
EBIT 43.0731.69-39.32280.89-77.61-150,865.708,831,660.18-517,004,328.4630,265,371,440.77-1,771,731,217,745.78
Tax Rate 45.97%9.23%0.01%235.82%4.03%59.01%59.01%59.01%59.01%59.01%
EBIAT 23.2728.77-39.31-381.50-74.48-61,836.053,619,874.99-211,907,048.4412,405,013,224.98-726,187,987,821.69
Depreciation ----20.93-1,225.3071,728.81-4,198,996.08245,808,727.56-14,389,613,458.76
Accounts Receivable --11.31-184.57-150.47337.36-744,538.2544,330,571.67-2,595,106,353.87151,917,215,009.97-8,893,215,563,962.89
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -4.172.8818.56-753.3443,196.27-2,528,704.69148,030,069.49-8,665,662,530.80507,286,846,233.58
Capital Expenditure -----3.28192.07-11,243.72658,205.89-38,531,294.042,255,617,336.21
UFCF 23.2721.62-221-513.41-472.81-764,211.2645,482,227.07-2,662,524,123.02155,863,843,137.67-9,124,250,701,673.55
WACC
PV UFCF -464,424.9516,797,550.24-597,585,280.2421,259,538,561.37-756,323,816,508.33
SUM PV UFCF -735,645,530,101.92

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 64.55
Free cash flow (t + 1) -9,306,735,715,707.02
Terminal Value -14,878,874,045,894.52
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,233,333,801,500.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,968,979,331,602.32
Net Debt 67.84
Equity Value -1,968,979,331,670.15
Shares Outstanding 28.06
Equity Value Per Share -70,162,154,018.20