Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (HAIN)
$12.12
+0.30 (+2.54%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,302.47 | 2,053.90 | 1,970.30 | 1,891.79 | 1,772.92 | 1,661.52 | 1,557.12 | 1,459.28 | 1,367.58 | 1,281.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -93.02 | -3.86 | 176.68 | 160.01 | 58.50 | 54.82 | 51.37 | 48.15 | 45.12 | 42.29 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -149.93 | -55.94 | 127.11 | 113.16 | 14.17 | 13.28 | 12.45 | 11.66 | 10.93 | 10.24 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 56.91 | 52.09 | 49.57 | 46.85 | 44.32 | 41.54 | 38.93 | 36.48 | 34.19 | 32.04 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 39.53 | 37.77 | 75.87 | 65.51 | 43.68 | 44.31 | 41.52 | 38.91 | 36.47 | 34.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 236.95 | 170.97 | 174.07 | 170.66 | 179.11 | 154.77 | 145.04 | 135.93 | 127.39 | 119.38 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 364.89 | 248.17 | 285.41 | 308.03 | 316.34 | 254.35 | 238.37 | 223.39 | 209.35 | 196.20 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 238.30 | 171.01 | 171.95 | 174.77 | 146.34 | 149.19 | 139.81 | 131.03 | 122.79 | 115.08 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -77.13 | -60.89 | -71.55 | -39.96 | -53.45 | -50.09 | -46.94 | -43.99 | -41.23 | -38.64 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 12.12 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.895 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 93.34 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.75 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.76% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.916 |
| Total Debt | 948.44 |
| Total Equity | 1,131.34 |
| Total Capital | 2,079.78 |
| Debt Weighting | 45.60 |
| Equity Weighting | 54.40 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,302.47 | 2,053.90 | 1,970.30 | 1,891.79 | 1,772.92 | 1,661.52 | 1,557.12 | 1,459.28 | 1,367.58 | 1,281.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -93.02 | -3.86 | 176.68 | 160.01 | 58.50 | 54.82 | 51.37 | 48.15 | 45.12 | 42.29 |
| EBIT | -149.93 | -55.94 | 127.11 | 113.16 | 14.17 | 13.28 | 12.45 | 11.66 | 10.93 | 10.24 |
| Tax Rate | -252.62% | 337.69% | 28.89% | 24.75% | 34.68% | 34.68% | 34.68% | 34.68% | 34.68% | 34.68% |
| EBIAT | -528.69 | 132.98 | 90.39 | 85.15 | 9.26 | 8.68 | 8.13 | 7.62 | 7.14 | 6.69 |
| Depreciation | 56.91 | 52.09 | 49.57 | 46.85 | 44.32 | 41.54 | 38.93 | 36.48 | 34.19 | 32.04 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 65.98 | -3.10 | 3.41 | -8.45 | 24.35 | 9.72 | 9.11 | 8.54 | 8 |
| Inventories | - | 116.72 | -37.24 | -22.62 | -8.31 | 61.99 | 15.98 | 14.98 | 14.04 | 13.15 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -67.29 | 0.94 | 2.82 | -28.43 | 2.85 | -9.37 | -8.79 | -8.23 | -7.72 |
| Capital Expenditure | -77.13 | -60.89 | -71.55 | -39.97 | -53.45 | -50.09 | -46.94 | -43.99 | -41.23 | -38.64 |
| UFCF | -548.90 | 239.57 | 29.01 | 75.63 | -45.06 | 89.31 | 16.45 | 15.42 | 14.45 | 13.54 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -45.06 | 84.24 | 14.63 | 12.94 | 11.43 | 10.11 | ||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 133.36 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.02 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 13.81 |
| Terminal Value | 343.53 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 256.47 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 389.82 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 904.76 |
| Equity Value | -514.94 |
| Shares Outstanding | 93.34 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -5.52 |