Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HAR.DE)
47.415 €
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 5,647.22 | 5,716.87 | 5,361.79 | 4,054.38 | 5,336.31 | 5,366.41 | 5,396.69 | 5,427.14 | 5,457.76 | 5,488.55 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,117.03 | 982.38 | 821.03 | 201.11 | 819.24 | 779.08 | 783.48 | 787.90 | 792.35 | 796.82 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 894.84 | 717.51 | 588.49 | 15.39 | 585.97 | 544.51 | 547.58 | 550.67 | 553.77 | 556.90 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 222.19 | 264.86 | 232.54 | 185.71 | 233.26 | 234.58 | 235.90 | 237.23 | 238.57 | 239.92 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 687.52 | 1,213.77 | 833.87 | 3,257.20 | 1,874.75 | 1,764.78 | 1,774.73 | 1,784.74 | 1,794.81 | 1,804.94 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2,435.65 | 2,520.90 | 2,531.86 | 1,652.62 | 1,647.69 | 2,211.87 | 2,224.35 | 2,236.90 | 2,249.52 | 2,262.21 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 538.20 | 556.13 | 603.57 | 523.50 | 712.94 | 609.49 | 612.93 | 616.38 | 619.86 | 623.36 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 227.60 | 284.86 | 294.38 | 196.01 | 257.98 | 259.44 | 260.90 | 262.37 | 263.85 | 265.34 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -206.29 | -213.52 | -181.44 | -131.05 | -120.18 | -174.48 | -175.46 | -176.45 | -177.45 | -178.45 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 47.415 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.434 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 154.98 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 20.65 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.97% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.407 |
Total Debt | 6,889.40 |
Total Equity | 7,348.38 |
Total Capital | 14,237.78 |
Debt Weighting | 48.39 |
Equity Weighting | 51.61 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 5,647.22 | 5,716.87 | 5,361.79 | 4,054.38 | 5,336.31 | 5,366.41 | 5,396.69 | 5,427.14 | 5,457.76 | 5,488.55 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,117.03 | 982.38 | 821.03 | 201.11 | 819.24 | 779.08 | 783.48 | 787.90 | 792.35 | 796.82 |
EBIT | 894.84 | 717.51 | 588.49 | 15.39 | 585.97 | 544.51 | 547.58 | 550.67 | 553.77 | 556.90 |
Tax Rate | 39.60% | 22.60% | 24.00% | 108.25% | 20.65% | 43.02% | 43.02% | 43.02% | 43.02% | 43.02% |
EBIAT | 540.49 | 555.36 | 447.25 | -1.27 | 464.94 | 310.25 | 312 | 313.76 | 315.53 | 317.31 |
Depreciation | 222.19 | 264.86 | 232.54 | 185.71 | 233.26 | 234.58 | 235.90 | 237.23 | 238.57 | 239.92 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -85.25 | -10.96 | 879.24 | 4.93 | -564.18 | -12.48 | -12.55 | -12.62 | -12.69 |
Inventories | - | -17.93 | -47.44 | 80.07 | -189.45 | 103.45 | -3.44 | -3.46 | -3.48 | -3.50 |
Accounts Payable | - | 57.26 | 9.52 | -98.37 | 61.97 | 1.46 | 1.46 | 1.47 | 1.48 | 1.49 |
Capital Expenditure | -206.29 | -213.52 | -181.44 | -131.05 | -120.18 | -174.48 | -175.46 | -176.45 | -177.45 | -178.45 |
UFCF | 556.38 | 560.79 | 449.47 | 914.33 | 455.48 | -88.91 | 357.99 | 360.01 | 362.04 | 364.08 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -82.87 | 311 | 291.50 | 273.23 | 256.10 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,048.95 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.29 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 371.37 |
Terminal Value | 7,020.16 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,937.99 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 5,986.94 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 5,014.65 |
Equity Value | 972.29 |
Shares Outstanding | 154.98 |
Equity Value Per Share | 6.27 |