Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HAR.DE)

44.93 €

-0.13 (-0.29%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 8.65 | 44.93 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	5,647.22	5,716.87	5,361.79	4,054.38	5,336.31	5,366.41	5,396.69	5,427.14	5,457.76	5,488.55
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,117.03	982.38	821.03	201.11	819.24	779.08	783.48	787.90	792.35	796.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	894.84	717.51	588.49	15.39	585.97	544.51	547.58	550.67	553.77	556.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	222.19	264.86	232.54	185.71	233.26	234.58	235.90	237.23	238.57	239.92
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	687.52	1,213.77	833.87	3,257.20	1,874.75	1,764.78	1,774.73	1,784.74	1,794.81	1,804.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	2,435.65	2,520.90	2,531.86	1,652.62	1,647.69	2,211.87	2,224.35	2,236.90	2,249.52	2,262.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	538.20	556.13	603.57	523.50	712.94	609.49	612.93	616.38	619.86	623.36
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	227.60	284.86	294.38	196.01	257.98	259.44	260.90	262.37	263.85	265.34
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-206.29	-213.52	-181.44	-131.05	-120.18	-174.48	-175.46	-176.45	-177.45	-178.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 44.93
Beta	1.375
Diluted Shares Outstanding	154.98
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	20.65
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.97%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.996
Total Debt	6,889.40
Total Equity	6,963.25
Total Capital	13,852.65
Debt Weighting	49.73
Equity Weighting	50.27
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	5,647.22	5,716.87	5,361.79	4,054.38	5,336.31	5,366.41	5,396.69	5,427.14	5,457.76	5,488.55
EBITDA	1,117.03	982.38	821.03	201.11	819.24	779.08	783.48	787.90	792.35	796.82
EBIT	894.84	717.51	588.49	15.39	585.97	544.51	547.58	550.67	553.77	556.90
Tax Rate	39.60%	22.60%	24.00%	108.25%	20.65%	43.02%	43.02%	43.02%	43.02%	43.02%
EBIAT	540.49	555.36	447.25	-1.27	464.94	310.25	312	313.76	315.53	317.31
Depreciation	222.19	264.86	232.54	185.71	233.26	234.58	235.90	237.23	238.57	239.92
Accounts Receivable	-	-85.25	-10.96	879.24	4.93	-564.18	-12.48	-12.55	-12.62	-12.69
Inventories	-	-17.93	-47.44	80.07	-189.45	103.45	-3.44	-3.46	-3.48	-3.50
Accounts Payable	-	57.26	9.52	-98.37	61.97	1.46	1.46	1.47	1.48	1.49
Capital Expenditure	-206.29	-213.52	-181.44	-131.05	-120.18	-174.48	-175.46	-176.45	-177.45	-178.45
UFCF	556.38	560.79	449.47	914.33	455.48	-88.91	357.99	360.01	362.04	364.08
WACC
PV UFCF						-83.10	312.68	293.88	276.20	259.59
SUM PV UFCF										1,059.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.00
Free cash flow (t + 1)	371.37
Terminal Value	7,427.33
Present Value of Terminal Value	5,295.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	6,354.83
Net Debt	5,014.65
Equity Value	1,340.18
Shares Outstanding	154.98
Equity Value Per Share	8.65