Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HAR.DE)

44.93 €

-0.13 (-0.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 8.65 | 44.93 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,647.225,716.875,361.794,054.385,336.315,366.415,396.695,427.145,457.765,488.55
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,117.03982.38821.03201.11819.24779.08783.48787.90792.35796.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 894.84717.51588.4915.39585.97544.51547.58550.67553.77556.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 222.19264.86232.54185.71233.26234.58235.90237.23238.57239.92
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 687.521,213.77833.873,257.201,874.751,764.781,774.731,784.741,794.811,804.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,435.652,520.902,531.861,652.621,647.692,211.872,224.352,236.902,249.522,262.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 538.20556.13603.57523.50712.94609.49612.93616.38619.86623.36
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 227.60284.86294.38196.01257.98259.44260.90262.37263.85265.34
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -206.29-213.52-181.44-131.05-120.18-174.48-175.46-176.45-177.45-178.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 44.93
Beta 1.375
Diluted Shares Outstanding 154.98
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.65
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.97%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.996
Total Debt 6,889.40
Total Equity 6,963.25
Total Capital 13,852.65
Debt Weighting 49.73
Equity Weighting 50.27
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,647.225,716.875,361.794,054.385,336.315,366.415,396.695,427.145,457.765,488.55
EBITDA 1,117.03982.38821.03201.11819.24779.08783.48787.90792.35796.82
EBIT 894.84717.51588.4915.39585.97544.51547.58550.67553.77556.90
Tax Rate 39.60%22.60%24.00%108.25%20.65%43.02%43.02%43.02%43.02%43.02%
EBIAT 540.49555.36447.25-1.27464.94310.25312313.76315.53317.31
Depreciation 222.19264.86232.54185.71233.26234.58235.90237.23238.57239.92
Accounts Receivable --85.25-10.96879.244.93-564.18-12.48-12.55-12.62-12.69
Inventories --17.93-47.4480.07-189.45103.45-3.44-3.46-3.48-3.50
Accounts Payable -57.269.52-98.3761.971.461.461.471.481.49
Capital Expenditure -206.29-213.52-181.44-131.05-120.18-174.48-175.46-176.45-177.45-178.45
UFCF 556.38560.79449.47914.33455.48-88.91357.99360.01362.04364.08
WACC
PV UFCF -83.10312.68293.88276.20259.59
SUM PV UFCF 1,059.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.00
Free cash flow (t + 1) 371.37
Terminal Value 7,427.33
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,295.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6,354.83
Net Debt 5,014.65
Equity Value 1,340.18
Shares Outstanding 154.98
Equity Value Per Share 8.65