Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Havells India Limited (HAVELLS.NS)

1234.35 ₹

-4.60 (-0.37%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 387.12 | 1234.35 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	80,999	100,115.50	93,867.90	103,827.30	139,384.80	161,065.17	186,117.77	215,067.14	248,519.38	287,174.90
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	11,279.10	13,131.10	11,418	17,591.40	19,208.60	22,526.18	26,029.97	30,078.76	34,757.31	40,163.58
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	9,869.50	11,605	9,238.30	15,102.30	16,599.70	19,351.34	22,361.31	25,839.46	29,858.61	34,502.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,409.60	1,526.10	2,179.70	2,489.10	2,608.90	3,174.84	3,668.67	4,239.30	4,898.70	5,660.66
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	15,069.70	13,087.50	11,619.70	19,793.60	27,312.90	26,645.10	30,789.56	35,578.67	41,112.69	47,507.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	16,330.30	19,189.70	18,718.80	26,198.90	29,680.80	34,080.62	39,381.63	45,507.18	52,585.51	60,764.84
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	16,524.40	16,002.30	14,532.30	16,793.50	23,800.20	27,418.40	31,683.15	36,611.25	42,305.88	48,886.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-15,968.10	-5,014.80	-3,609.30	-2,498.90	-2,583.20	-10,574.93	-12,219.79	-14,120.50	-16,316.85	-18,854.82
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 1,234.35
Beta	0.475
Diluted Shares Outstanding	626.42
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.53
After-tax Cost of Debt	6.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.839
Total Debt	6,164
Total Equity	773,226.57
Total Capital	779,390.57
Debt Weighting	0.79
Equity Weighting	99.21
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	80,999	100,115.50	93,867.90	103,827.30	139,384.80	161,065.17	186,117.77	215,067.14	248,519.38	287,174.90
EBITDA	11,279.10	13,131.10	11,418	17,591.40	19,208.60	22,526.18	26,029.97	30,078.76	34,757.31	40,163.58
EBIT	9,869.50	11,605	9,238.30	15,102.30	16,599.70	19,351.34	22,361.31	25,839.46	29,858.61	34,502.92
Tax Rate	32.23%	31.30%	18.69%	27.35%	25.53%	27.02%	27.02%	27.02%	27.02%	27.02%
EBIAT	6,689.04	7,972.19	7,511.73	10,971.09	12,362.47	14,122.64	16,319.32	18,857.68	21,790.86	25,180.29
Depreciation	1,409.60	1,526.10	2,179.70	2,489.10	2,608.90	3,174.84	3,668.67	4,239.30	4,898.70	5,660.66
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-2,859.40	470.90	-7,480.10	-3,481.90	-4,399.82	-5,301.01	-6,125.55	-7,078.34	-8,179.32
Accounts Payable	-	-522.10	-1,470	2,261.20	7,006.70	3,618.20	4,264.75	4,928.10	5,694.63	6,580.40
Capital Expenditure	-15,968.10	-5,014.80	-3,609.30	-2,498.90	-2,583.20	-10,574.93	-12,219.79	-14,120.50	-16,316.85	-18,854.82
UFCF	-7,869.46	1,101.99	5,083.03	5,742.39	15,912.96	5,940.93	6,731.93	7,779.04	8,989.01	10,387.19
WACC
PV UFCF						5,613.12	6,009.52	6,561.10	7,163.29	7,820.76
SUM PV UFCF										33,167.80

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.84
Free cash flow (t + 1)	10,594.94
Terminal Value	275,909.87
Present Value of Terminal Value	207,739.02

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	240,906.82
Net Debt	-1,594.40
Equity Value	242,501.22
Shares Outstanding	626.42
Equity Value Per Share	387.12