Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Havells India Limited (HAVELLS.NS)

1550.75 ₹

-25.70 (-1.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 894.23 | 1550.75 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 100,115.5093,867.90103,827.30138,354.50169,107.30194,410.66223,500.14256,942.26295,388.28339,586.95
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 13,285.2011,678.4017,457.6019,345.8017,927.6026,093.5529,997.9034,486.4639,646.6345,578.92
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11,759.109,498.7014,96916,736.9014,965.9022,251.8625,581.3929,409.1133,809.5638,868.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,526.102,179.702,488.602,608.902,961.703,841.684,416.515,077.355,837.076,710.47
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 13,087.5011,619.7019,562.2026,987.2021,679.3029,790.7034,248.2539,372.7845,264.0952,036.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5,668.902,814.707,441.609,373.6010,111.4011,113.5112,776.4114,688.1316,885.9119,412.53
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 19,189.7018,718.8026,198.9029,680.8037,085.8041,885.9448,153.2955,358.4263,641.6573,164.29
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 16,002.3014,532.3016,793.5024,109.2026,431.9031,376.2836,071.0841,468.3647,673.2354,806.53
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5,014.80-3,609.30-2,498.90-2,583.20-5,877.90-6,455.92-7,421.91-8,532.44-9,809.14-11,276.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,550.75
Beta 0.581
Diluted Shares Outstanding 626.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.94
After-tax Cost of Debt 11.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.901
Total Debt 2,231
Total Equity 971,596.83
Total Capital 973,827.83
Debt Weighting 0.23
Equity Weighting 99.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 100,115.5093,867.90103,827.30138,354.50169,107.30194,410.66223,500.14256,942.26295,388.28339,586.95
EBITDA 13,285.2011,678.4017,457.6019,345.8017,927.6026,093.5529,997.9034,486.4639,646.6345,578.92
EBIT 11,759.109,498.7014,96916,736.9014,965.9022,251.8625,581.3929,409.1133,809.5638,868.46
Tax Rate 31.30%18.69%27.35%25.53%25.94%25.76%25.76%25.76%25.76%25.76%
EBIAT 8,078.057,723.4610,874.2512,464.6411,084.1316,519.2818,991.0421,832.6525,099.4528,855.06
Depreciation 1,526.102,179.702,488.602,608.902,961.703,841.684,416.515,077.355,837.076,710.47
Accounts Receivable -2,854.20-4,626.90-1,932-737.80-1,002.11-1,662.90-1,911.72-2,197.77-2,526.62
Inventories -470.90-7,480.10-3,481.90-7,405-4,800.14-6,267.35-7,205.13-8,283.23-9,522.64
Accounts Payable --1,4702,261.207,315.702,322.704,944.374,694.805,397.286,204.877,133.30
Capital Expenditure -5,014.80-3,609.30-2,498.90-2,583.20-5,877.90-6,455.92-7,421.91-8,532.44-9,809.14-11,276.87
UFCF 4,589.358,148.961,018.1514,392.142,347.8313,047.1812,750.1914,657.9916,851.2519,372.69
WACC
PV UFCF 12,203.8911,155.2711,995.5312,899.0813,870.70
SUM PV UFCF 62,124.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.91
Free cash flow (t + 1) 20,147.60
Terminal Value 692,357.22
Present Value of Terminal Value 495,722.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 557,846.91
Net Debt -2,420.60
Equity Value 560,267.51
Shares Outstanding 626.53
Equity Value Per Share 894.23