Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)

$4.87

+0.16 (+3.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -0.61 | 4.87 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,472.371,237.441,092.421,5021,461.441,487.441,513.911,540.851,568.271,596.17
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 564.92329.40227.42296.77467.11409.13416.41423.82431.36439.04
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 231.78-17.23-136.18-63128.0519.1919.5319.8820.2420.60
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 333.14346.63363.60359.77339.06389.94396.88403.94411.12418.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 515.50396.15439.13270.99225.66418.59426.03433.62441.33449.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 119.16113.28153.64204.08122.33158.47161.29164.16167.09170.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 118.47138.82143.11158.45155.01159.22162.05164.94167.87170.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 61.3968.74104.6084.2883.8291.1792.7994.4496.1297.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -190.90-259.20-361.18-377.43-308.96-336.89-342.88-348.99-355.20-361.52
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.87
Beta 2.070
Diluted Shares Outstanding 262.22
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.54
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.99%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.344
Total Debt 1,245.18
Total Equity 1,277
Total Capital 2,522.18
Debt Weighting 49.37
Equity Weighting 50.63
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,472.371,237.441,092.421,5021,461.441,487.441,513.911,540.851,568.271,596.17
EBITDA 564.92329.40227.42296.77467.11409.13416.41423.82431.36439.04
EBIT 231.78-17.23-136.18-63128.0519.1919.5319.8820.2420.60
Tax Rate 50.00%24.06%19.27%-20.52%26.54%19.87%19.87%19.87%19.87%19.87%
EBIAT 115.89-13.08-109.94-75.9294.0615.3815.6515.9316.2116.50
Depreciation 333.14346.63363.60359.77339.06389.94396.88403.94411.12418.44
Accounts Receivable -5.88-40.36-50.4481.75-36.14-2.82-2.87-2.92-2.97
Inventories --20.35-4.28-15.353.44-4.21-2.83-2.88-2.93-2.99
Accounts Payable -7.3535.86-20.32-0.457.351.621.651.681.71
Capital Expenditure -190.90-259.20-361.19-377.43-308.96-336.89-342.88-348.99-355.20-361.52
UFCF 258.1367.23-116.32-179.69208.9035.4365.6166.7867.9769.18
WACC
PV UFCF 32.4354.9951.2447.7544.49
SUM PV UFCF 230.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.23
Free cash flow (t + 1) 70.56
Terminal Value 975.95
Present Value of Terminal Value 627.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 858.55
Net Debt 1,019.52
Equity Value -160.96
Shares Outstanding 262.22
Equity Value Per Share -0.61