Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)
$4.87
+0.16 (+3.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,472.37 | 1,237.44 | 1,092.42 | 1,502 | 1,461.44 | 1,487.44 | 1,513.91 | 1,540.85 | 1,568.27 | 1,596.17 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 564.92 | 329.40 | 227.42 | 296.77 | 467.11 | 409.13 | 416.41 | 423.82 | 431.36 | 439.04 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 231.78 | -17.23 | -136.18 | -63 | 128.05 | 19.19 | 19.53 | 19.88 | 20.24 | 20.60 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 333.14 | 346.63 | 363.60 | 359.77 | 339.06 | 389.94 | 396.88 | 403.94 | 411.12 | 418.44 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 515.50 | 396.15 | 439.13 | 270.99 | 225.66 | 418.59 | 426.03 | 433.62 | 441.33 | 449.18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 119.16 | 113.28 | 153.64 | 204.08 | 122.33 | 158.47 | 161.29 | 164.16 | 167.09 | 170.06 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 118.47 | 138.82 | 143.11 | 158.45 | 155.01 | 159.22 | 162.05 | 164.94 | 167.87 | 170.86 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 61.39 | 68.74 | 104.60 | 84.28 | 83.82 | 91.17 | 92.79 | 94.44 | 96.12 | 97.84 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -190.90 | -259.20 | -361.18 | -377.43 | -308.96 | -336.89 | -342.88 | -348.99 | -355.20 | -361.52 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 4.87 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.070 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 262.22 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 26.54 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.99% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 14.344 |
Total Debt | 1,245.18 |
Total Equity | 1,277 |
Total Capital | 2,522.18 |
Debt Weighting | 49.37 |
Equity Weighting | 50.63 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,472.37 | 1,237.44 | 1,092.42 | 1,502 | 1,461.44 | 1,487.44 | 1,513.91 | 1,540.85 | 1,568.27 | 1,596.17 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 564.92 | 329.40 | 227.42 | 296.77 | 467.11 | 409.13 | 416.41 | 423.82 | 431.36 | 439.04 |
EBIT | 231.78 | -17.23 | -136.18 | -63 | 128.05 | 19.19 | 19.53 | 19.88 | 20.24 | 20.60 |
Tax Rate | 50.00% | 24.06% | 19.27% | -20.52% | 26.54% | 19.87% | 19.87% | 19.87% | 19.87% | 19.87% |
EBIAT | 115.89 | -13.08 | -109.94 | -75.92 | 94.06 | 15.38 | 15.65 | 15.93 | 16.21 | 16.50 |
Depreciation | 333.14 | 346.63 | 363.60 | 359.77 | 339.06 | 389.94 | 396.88 | 403.94 | 411.12 | 418.44 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 5.88 | -40.36 | -50.44 | 81.75 | -36.14 | -2.82 | -2.87 | -2.92 | -2.97 |
Inventories | - | -20.35 | -4.28 | -15.35 | 3.44 | -4.21 | -2.83 | -2.88 | -2.93 | -2.99 |
Accounts Payable | - | 7.35 | 35.86 | -20.32 | -0.45 | 7.35 | 1.62 | 1.65 | 1.68 | 1.71 |
Capital Expenditure | -190.90 | -259.20 | -361.19 | -377.43 | -308.96 | -336.89 | -342.88 | -348.99 | -355.20 | -361.52 |
UFCF | 258.13 | 67.23 | -116.32 | -179.69 | 208.90 | 35.43 | 65.61 | 66.78 | 67.97 | 69.18 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 32.43 | 54.99 | 51.24 | 47.75 | 44.49 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 230.90 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.23 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 70.56 |
Terminal Value | 975.95 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 627.65 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 858.55 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,019.52 |
Equity Value | -160.96 |
Shares Outstanding | 262.22 |
Equity Value Per Share | -0.61 |