Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)
$4.77
+0.35 (+7.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,472.37 | 1,237.44 | 1,092.42 | 1,502 | 1,461.44 | 1,487.44 | 1,513.91 | 1,540.85 | 1,568.27 | 1,596.17 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 573.28 | -33.36 | 270.77 | 231.76 | 502.54 | 329.75 | 335.61 | 341.58 | 347.66 | 353.85 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 240.13 | -380 | -92.83 | -128 | 163.48 | -60.19 | -61.26 | -62.35 | -63.46 | -64.59 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 333.14 | 346.63 | 363.60 | 359.77 | 339.06 | 389.94 | 396.88 | 403.94 | 411.12 | 418.44 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 515.50 | 396.15 | 439.13 | 270.99 | 225.66 | 418.59 | 426.03 | 433.62 | 441.33 | 449.18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 119.16 | 113.28 | 153.64 | 204.08 | 122.33 | 158.47 | 161.29 | 164.16 | 167.09 | 170.06 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 118.47 | 138.82 | 143.11 | 158.45 | 155.01 | 159.22 | 162.05 | 164.94 | 167.87 | 170.86 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 61.39 | 68.74 | 104.60 | 84.28 | 83.82 | 91.17 | 92.79 | 94.44 | 96.12 | 97.84 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -190.90 | -259.20 | -361.18 | -377.43 | -308.96 | -336.89 | -342.88 | -348.99 | -355.20 | -361.52 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 4.77 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.970 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 261.46 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 26.54 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.99% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 13.037 |
Total Debt | 1,245.18 |
Total Equity | 1,247.18 |
Total Capital | 2,492.36 |
Debt Weighting | 49.96 |
Equity Weighting | 50.04 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,472.37 | 1,237.44 | 1,092.42 | 1,502 | 1,461.44 | 1,487.44 | 1,513.91 | 1,540.85 | 1,568.27 | 1,596.17 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 573.28 | -33.36 | 270.77 | 231.76 | 502.54 | 329.75 | 335.61 | 341.58 | 347.66 | 353.85 |
EBIT | 240.13 | -380 | -92.83 | -128 | 163.48 | -60.19 | -61.26 | -62.35 | -63.46 | -64.59 |
Tax Rate | 50.00% | 24.06% | 19.27% | -20.52% | 26.54% | 19.87% | 19.87% | 19.87% | 19.87% | 19.87% |
EBIAT | 120.06 | -288.55 | -74.95 | -154.27 | 120.08 | -48.23 | -49.09 | -49.96 | -50.85 | -51.76 |
Depreciation | 333.14 | 346.63 | 363.60 | 359.77 | 339.06 | 389.94 | 396.88 | 403.94 | 411.12 | 418.44 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 5.88 | -40.36 | -50.44 | 81.75 | -36.14 | -2.82 | -2.87 | -2.92 | -2.97 |
Inventories | - | -20.35 | -4.28 | -15.35 | 3.44 | -4.21 | -2.83 | -2.88 | -2.93 | -2.99 |
Accounts Payable | - | 7.35 | 35.86 | -20.32 | -0.45 | 7.35 | 1.62 | 1.65 | 1.68 | 1.71 |
Capital Expenditure | -190.90 | -259.20 | -361.19 | -377.43 | -308.96 | -336.89 | -342.88 | -348.99 | -355.20 | -361.52 |
UFCF | 262.31 | -208.24 | -81.32 | -258.04 | 234.92 | -28.18 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 0.90 | 0.92 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -25.97 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.61 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -23.28 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.52 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 0.94 |
Terminal Value | 14.37 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 9.55 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -13.73 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,019.52 |
Equity Value | -1,033.24 |
Shares Outstanding | 261.46 |
Equity Value Per Share | -3.95 |