Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)

$4.77

+0.35 (+7.92%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -3.95 | 4.77 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,472.37	1,237.44	1,092.42	1,502	1,461.44	1,487.44	1,513.91	1,540.85	1,568.27	1,596.17
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	573.28	-33.36	270.77	231.76	502.54	329.75	335.61	341.58	347.66	353.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	240.13	-380	-92.83	-128	163.48	-60.19	-61.26	-62.35	-63.46	-64.59
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	333.14	346.63	363.60	359.77	339.06	389.94	396.88	403.94	411.12	418.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	515.50	396.15	439.13	270.99	225.66	418.59	426.03	433.62	441.33	449.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	119.16	113.28	153.64	204.08	122.33	158.47	161.29	164.16	167.09	170.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	118.47	138.82	143.11	158.45	155.01	159.22	162.05	164.94	167.87	170.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	61.39	68.74	104.60	84.28	83.82	91.17	92.79	94.44	96.12	97.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-190.90	-259.20	-361.18	-377.43	-308.96	-336.89	-342.88	-348.99	-355.20	-361.52
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 4.77
Beta	1.970
Diluted Shares Outstanding	261.46
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	26.54
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.99%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.037
Total Debt	1,245.18
Total Equity	1,247.18
Total Capital	2,492.36
Debt Weighting	49.96
Equity Weighting	50.04
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,472.37	1,237.44	1,092.42	1,502	1,461.44	1,487.44	1,513.91	1,540.85	1,568.27	1,596.17
EBITDA	573.28	-33.36	270.77	231.76	502.54	329.75	335.61	341.58	347.66	353.85
EBIT	240.13	-380	-92.83	-128	163.48	-60.19	-61.26	-62.35	-63.46	-64.59
Tax Rate	50.00%	24.06%	19.27%	-20.52%	26.54%	19.87%	19.87%	19.87%	19.87%	19.87%
EBIAT	120.06	-288.55	-74.95	-154.27	120.08	-48.23	-49.09	-49.96	-50.85	-51.76
Depreciation	333.14	346.63	363.60	359.77	339.06	389.94	396.88	403.94	411.12	418.44
Accounts Receivable	-	5.88	-40.36	-50.44	81.75	-36.14	-2.82	-2.87	-2.92	-2.97
Inventories	-	-20.35	-4.28	-15.35	3.44	-4.21	-2.83	-2.88	-2.93	-2.99
Accounts Payable	-	7.35	35.86	-20.32	-0.45	7.35	1.62	1.65	1.68	1.71
Capital Expenditure	-190.90	-259.20	-361.19	-377.43	-308.96	-336.89	-342.88	-348.99	-355.20	-361.52
UFCF	262.31	-208.24	-81.32	-258.04	234.92	-28.18	0.87	0.89	0.90	0.92
WACC
PV UFCF						-25.97	0.74	0.69	0.65	0.61
SUM PV UFCF										-23.28

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.52
Free cash flow (t + 1)	0.94
Terminal Value	14.37
Present Value of Terminal Value	9.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-13.73
Net Debt	1,019.52
Equity Value	-1,033.24
Shares Outstanding	261.46
Equity Value Per Share	-3.95