Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Health Catalyst, Inc. (HCAT)
$9.84
+0.07 (+0.72%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 112.57 | 154.94 | 188.85 | 241.93 | 276.24 | 346.54 | 434.74 | 545.39 | 684.21 | 858.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -52.12 | -45.65 | -77.40 | -106.12 | -91.71 | -134.33 | -168.52 | -211.41 | -265.22 | -332.72 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -59.53 | -54.87 | -96.13 | -143.65 | -140 | -172.76 | -216.72 | -271.88 | -341.08 | -427.90 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 7.41 | 9.21 | 18.72 | 37.53 | 48.30 | 38.43 | 48.21 | 60.47 | 75.87 | 95.18 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 33.19 | 228.28 | 270.87 | 444.98 | 363.49 | 440.64 | 552.80 | 693.49 | 870 | 1,091.43 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 27.70 | 27.57 | 48.30 | 48.80 | 47.97 | 73.13 | 91.74 | 115.09 | 144.38 | 181.13 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.81 | 3.62 | 5.33 | 4.69 | 4.42 | 7.15 | 8.97 | 11.25 | 14.11 | 17.70 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.50 | -4.33 | -10.47 | -18.47 | -17.41 | -16.98 | -21.30 | -26.72 | -33.53 | -42.06 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 9.84 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.300 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 54.08 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 3.02 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.66% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.676 |
| Total Debt | 247.97 |
| Total Equity | 532.15 |
| Total Capital | 780.12 |
| Debt Weighting | 31.79 |
| Equity Weighting | 68.21 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 112.57 | 154.94 | 188.85 | 241.93 | 276.24 | 346.54 | 434.74 | 545.39 | 684.21 | 858.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -52.12 | -45.65 | -77.40 | -106.12 | -91.71 | -134.33 | -168.52 | -211.41 | -265.22 | -332.72 |
| EBIT | -59.53 | -54.87 | -96.13 | -143.65 | -140 | -172.76 | -216.72 | -271.88 | -341.08 | -427.90 |
| Tax Rate | 0.22% | -0.24% | 1.03% | 4.31% | 3.02% | 1.67% | 1.67% | 1.67% | 1.67% | 1.67% |
| EBIAT | -59.40 | -54.99 | -95.14 | -137.46 | -135.78 | -169.87 | -213.11 | -267.35 | -335.40 | -420.76 |
| Depreciation | 7.41 | 9.21 | 18.72 | 37.53 | 48.30 | 38.43 | 48.21 | 60.47 | 75.87 | 95.18 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.13 | -20.73 | -0.51 | 0.83 | -25.16 | -18.61 | -23.35 | -29.29 | -36.75 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.81 | 1.71 | -0.64 | -0.27 | 2.72 | 1.82 | 2.28 | 2.86 | 3.59 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.50 | -4.33 | -10.46 | -18.47 | -17.41 | -16.98 | -21.30 | -26.72 | -33.53 | -42.06 |
| UFCF | -54.49 | -48.18 | -105.89 | -119.54 | -104.33 | -170.86 | -203 | -254.67 | -319.48 | -400.80 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -158.96 | -175.70 | -205.05 | -239.32 | -279.31 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,058.33 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.49 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -408.81 |
| Terminal Value | -7,446.53 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -5,189.36 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -6,247.69 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 131.66 |
| Equity Value | -6,379.35 |
| Shares Outstanding | 54.08 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -117.96 |