Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

HC2 Holdings, Inc. (HCHC)

$3.68

+0.02 (+0.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -101.87 | 3.68 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 1,120.811,558.131,634.121,992.782,430.152,963.523,613.954,407.145,374.416,553.987,992.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 23.5129.3355.5048.9959.7572.8688.85108.35132.13161.14196.50
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -7.430.4618.933.494.255.196.337.719.4111.4713.99
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 30.9428.8636.5745.5155.4967.6782.53100.64122.73149.66182.51
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Projected
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 1,390.461,394.331,438.512,003.252,442.922,979.093,632.944,430.305,402.656,588.428,034.44
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 792.45842.06918.841,202.151,465.991,787.752,180.122,658.613,242.123,953.704,821.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 12.129.6512.7416.4720.0924.5029.8836.4344.4354.1866.07
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 84.4366.79119.24126.98154.85188.84230.29280.83342.47417.63509.30
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -21.32-29.05-31.92-38-46.34-56.51-68.91-84.04-102.48-124.97-152.40
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.68
Beta 2.305
Diluted Shares Outstanding 50.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -230.94
After-tax Cost of Debt 14.14%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.384
Total Debt 561.50
Total Equity 186.58
Total Capital 748.08
Debt Weighting 75.06
Equity Weighting 24.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 1,120.811,558.131,634.121,992.782,430.152,963.523,613.954,407.145,374.416,553.987,992.44
EBITDA 23.5129.3355.5048.9959.7572.8688.85108.35132.13161.14196.50
EBIT -7.430.4618.933.494.255.196.337.719.4111.4713.99
Tax Rate 23.72%-106.47%-18.01%-57.45%44.44%-230.94%-57.45%-57.45%-57.45%-57.45%-57.45%
EBIAT -5.670.9622.345.492.3617.179.9612.1514.8118.0622.03
Depreciation 30.9428.8636.5745.5155.4967.6782.53100.64122.73149.66182.51
Accounts Receivable --49.61-76.77-283.31-263.85-321.75-392.37-478.49-583.51-711.58-867.75
Inventories -2.47-3.09-3.74-3.62-4.41-5.38-6.56-8-9.75-11.89
Accounts Payable --17.6452.447.7527.8733.9941.4550.5461.6475.1691.66
Capital Expenditure -21.32-29.05-31.93-38-41.40-17.80-68.91-84.04-102.48-124.97-152.40
UFCF 3.95-64.01-0.44-266.30-228.07-263.85-332.73-405.76-494.81-603.41-735.85
WACC
PV UFCF -304.11-228.07-231.04-255.13-272.44-290.92-310.66-331.73
SUM PV UFCF -1,668.32

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.20
Free cash flow (t + 1) -750.56
Terminal Value -6,152.17
Present Value of Terminal Value -3,167.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -4,835.69
Net Debt 329.20
Equity Value -5,164.89
Shares Outstanding 50.70
Equity Value Per Share -101.87