Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

HCI Group, Inc. (HCI)

$99.5

+3.32 (+3.45%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -108.44 | 99.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 231.29242.47274.08407.91496.45606.16740.13903.711,103.441,347.30
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 55.9943.1543.824.95-56.6757.9470.7586.38105.47128.78
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4534.2135.07-0.60-64.6840.2349.1259.9873.2389.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 118.948.755.558.0117.7121.6226.4032.2439.36
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 488.66432.55503.06671.53718.761,070.021,306.511,595.251,947.822,378.30
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 143.34155.59158.67149.24728.12445.27543.68663.84810.55989.69
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.010.080.094.028.613.384.135.046.157.51
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.60-2.89-6.44-3.32-10.14-9.11-11.13-13.59-16.59-20.26
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 99.5
Beta 1.106
Diluted Shares Outstanding 8.58
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.505
Total Debt 212.41
Total Equity 853.71
Total Capital 1,066.12
Debt Weighting 19.92
Equity Weighting 80.08
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 231.29242.47274.08407.91496.45606.16740.13903.711,103.441,347.30
EBITDA 55.9943.1543.824.95-56.6757.9470.7586.38105.47128.78
EBIT 4534.2135.07-0.60-64.6840.2349.1259.9873.2389.42
Tax Rate 34.11%26.37%25.31%35.53%20.19%28.30%28.30%28.30%28.30%28.30%
EBIAT 29.6525.1926.20-0.39-51.6228.8435.224352.5164.11
Depreciation 118.948.755.558.0117.7121.6226.4032.2439.36
Accounts Receivable --12.25-3.089.43-578.87282.84-98.41-120.16-146.71-179.14
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.060.013.934.59-5.230.750.911.111.36
Capital Expenditure -2.60-2.89-6.44-3.32-10.14-9.11-11.13-13.59-16.59-20.26
UFCF 38.0519.0625.4415.20-628.04315.06-51.95-63.43-77.45-94.56
WACC
PV UFCF 290.94-44.30-49.95-56.32-63.50
SUM PV UFCF 76.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.29
Free cash flow (t + 1) -96.46
Terminal Value -1,533.48
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,029.76

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -952.90
Net Debt -22.45
Equity Value -930.44
Shares Outstanding 8.58
Equity Value Per Share -108.44