Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
HUTCHMED (China) Limited (HCM)
$13.39
+1.18 (+9.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 214.11 | 204.89 | 227.98 | 356.13 | 426.41 | 514.79 | 621.50 | 750.31 | 905.84 | 1,093.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -66.24 | -96.78 | -114.05 | -174.95 | -351.80 | -267.52 | -322.97 | -389.91 | -470.73 | -568.29 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -69.83 | -101.72 | -120.11 | -182.14 | -360.47 | -278.63 | -336.39 | -406.11 | -490.29 | -591.91 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 3.59 | 4.94 | 6.06 | 7.19 | 8.66 | 11.12 | 13.42 | 16.20 | 19.56 | 23.62 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 300.95 | 217.17 | 435.18 | 1,011.70 | 631 | 895.23 | 1,080.78 | 1,304.80 | 1,575.25 | 1,901.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 12.31 | 16.21 | 19.77 | 35.75 | 56.69 | 47.02 | 56.76 | 68.53 | 82.73 | 99.88 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 25.62 | 23.96 | 31.61 | 41.18 | 71.12 | 67.71 | 81.75 | 98.70 | 119.15 | 143.85 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -6.36 | -8.57 | -19.58 | -16.76 | -36.66 | -29.90 | -36.10 | -43.59 | -52.62 | -63.53 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 13.39 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.843 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 169.43 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 12.08 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.46% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.789 |
| Total Debt | 23.30 |
| Total Equity | 2,268.65 |
| Total Capital | 2,291.95 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.02 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.98 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 214.11 | 204.89 | 227.98 | 356.13 | 426.41 | 514.79 | 621.50 | 750.31 | 905.84 | 1,093.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -66.24 | -96.78 | -114.05 | -174.95 | -351.80 | -267.52 | -322.97 | -389.91 | -470.73 | -568.29 |
| EBIT | -69.83 | -101.72 | -120.11 | -182.14 | -360.47 | -278.63 | -336.39 | -406.11 | -490.29 | -591.91 |
| Tax Rate | 13.67% | 24.86% | 33.73% | 9.78% | 12.08% | 18.83% | 18.83% | 18.83% | 18.83% | 18.83% |
| EBIAT | -60.28 | -76.43 | -79.60 | -164.33 | -316.91 | -226.18 | -273.06 | -329.66 | -397.99 | -480.48 |
| Depreciation | 3.59 | 4.94 | 6.06 | 7.19 | 8.66 | 11.12 | 13.42 | 16.20 | 19.56 | 23.62 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -3.90 | -3.56 | -15.99 | -20.94 | 9.67 | -9.75 | -11.76 | -14.20 | -17.15 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -1.66 | 7.65 | 9.57 | 29.94 | -3.40 | 14.04 | 16.94 | 20.46 | 24.70 |
| Capital Expenditure | -6.36 | -8.56 | -19.58 | -16.76 | -36.66 | -29.90 | -36.10 | -43.59 | -52.62 | -63.53 |
| UFCF | -63.06 | -85.62 | -89.02 | -180.32 | -335.91 | -238.69 | -291.45 | -351.86 | -424.79 | -512.84 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -221.56 | -251.13 | -281.42 | -315.38 | -353.43 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,422.91 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.73 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -523.10 |
| Terminal Value | -9,129.07 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -6,291.34 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -7,714.26 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -289.98 |
| Equity Value | -7,424.28 |
| Shares Outstanding | 169.43 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -43.82 |