Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktieng... (HDD.DE)
1.209 €
+0.01 (+0.42%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,490.49 | 2,349.45 | 1,913.17 | 2,183.43 | 2,435 | 2,443.62 | 2,452.26 | 2,460.94 | 2,469.65 | 2,478.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 168.46 | -140.74 | 62.28 | 102.65 | 178 | 78.39 | 78.67 | 78.95 | 79.23 | 79.51 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 88.64 | -307.29 | -16.55 | 22.18 | 103 | -25.12 | -25.20 | -25.29 | -25.38 | -25.47 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 79.82 | 166.55 | 78.83 | 80.46 | 75 | 103.51 | 103.88 | 104.24 | 104.61 | 104.98 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 184.12 | 414.68 | 197.88 | 140.24 | 116 | 227.61 | 228.42 | 229.23 | 230.04 | 230.85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 460.43 | 415.47 | 379.23 | 417.17 | 409 | 449.12 | 450.71 | 452.30 | 453.90 | 455.51 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 679.18 | 650.86 | 535.53 | 620.41 | 632 | 671.18 | 673.56 | 675.94 | 678.33 | 680.73 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 245.39 | 212.19 | 146.19 | 216.48 | 225 | 223.25 | 224.04 | 224.84 | 225.63 | 226.43 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -124.89 | -95.53 | -59.80 | -55.42 | -78 | -87.71 | -88.02 | -88.34 | -88.65 | -88.96 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.209 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.140 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 304.34 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 18.75 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 22.86% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.539 |
| Total Debt | 96 |
| Total Equity | 367.94 |
| Total Capital | 463.94 |
| Debt Weighting | 20.69 |
| Equity Weighting | 79.31 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,490.49 | 2,349.45 | 1,913.17 | 2,183.43 | 2,435 | 2,443.62 | 2,452.26 | 2,460.94 | 2,469.65 | 2,478.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 168.46 | -140.74 | 62.28 | 102.65 | 178 | 78.39 | 78.67 | 78.95 | 79.23 | 79.51 |
| EBIT | 88.64 | -307.29 | -16.55 | 22.18 | 103 | -25.12 | -25.20 | -25.29 | -25.38 | -25.47 |
| Tax Rate | 35.05% | -6.59% | -83.55% | 34.92% | 18.75% | -0.28% | -0.28% | -0.28% | -0.28% | -0.28% |
| EBIAT | 57.57 | -327.53 | -30.38 | 14.44 | 83.69 | -25.19 | -25.28 | -25.37 | -25.46 | -25.55 |
| Depreciation | 79.82 | 166.55 | 78.83 | 80.46 | 75 | 103.51 | 103.88 | 104.24 | 104.61 | 104.98 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 44.96 | 36.24 | -37.95 | 8.17 | -40.12 | -1.59 | -1.59 | -1.60 | -1.61 |
| Inventories | - | 28.32 | 115.33 | -84.88 | -11.59 | -39.18 | -2.38 | -2.38 | -2.39 | -2.40 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -33.19 | -66 | 70.29 | 8.52 | -1.75 | 0.79 | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Capital Expenditure | -124.89 | -95.53 | -59.80 | -55.42 | -78 | -87.71 | -88.02 | -88.34 | -88.65 | -88.96 |
| UFCF | 12.50 | -216.41 | 74.22 | -13.06 | 85.79 | -90.44 | -12.60 | -12.64 | -12.69 | -12.73 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -77.79 | -9.32 | -8.05 | -6.95 | -6 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -108.10 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 16.26 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -12.99 |
| Terminal Value | -91.08 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -42.88 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -150.98 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -14 |
| Equity Value | -136.98 |
| Shares Outstanding | 304.34 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -0.45 |