Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hardwoods Distribution Inc. (HDI.TO)

$31.7

-1.01 (-3.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 12.01 | 31.7 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 824.68832.78897.15976.591,616.201,951.802,357.092,846.543,437.634,151.45
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 44.6239.7558.5470.60184.79138.07166.75201.37243.18293.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 39.4434.7237.1546.11148.21105.33127.21153.62185.52224.05
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5.175.0321.4024.4936.5832.7439.5447.7557.6669.64
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 0.251.1411.570.467.767.749.3511.2913.6416.47
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 78.6082.8187.7093.20164.95191.28231278.96336.89406.84
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 136.86164.30159.18172.05463.57391.80473.15571.40690.06833.35
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 30.6928.9241.1948.90113.7093.01112.32135.65163.81197.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.06-3.20-2.76-2.45-7.47-6.45-7.79-9.41-11.37-13.73
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 31.7
Beta 1.759
Diluted Shares Outstanding 21.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.07
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.39%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.290
Total Debt 570.59
Total Equity 684.85
Total Capital 1,255.44
Debt Weighting 45.45
Equity Weighting 54.55
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 824.68832.78897.15976.591,616.201,951.802,357.092,846.543,437.634,151.45
EBITDA 44.6239.7558.5470.60184.79138.07166.75201.37243.18293.68
EBIT 39.4434.7237.1546.11148.21105.33127.21153.62185.52224.05
Tax Rate 35.70%25.10%24.35%26.21%25.07%27.28%27.28%27.28%27.28%27.28%
EBIAT 25.362628.1034.02111.0676.5992.50111.71134.90162.92
Depreciation 5.175.0321.4024.4936.5832.7439.5447.7557.6669.64
Accounts Receivable --4.21-4.89-5.50-71.74-26.33-39.72-47.97-57.93-69.95
Inventories --27.445.12-12.86-291.5371.77-81.36-98.25-118.65-143.29
Accounts Payable --1.7712.277.7164.80-20.6919.3123.3228.1734.02
Capital Expenditure -2.06-3.20-2.76-2.45-7.47-6.45-7.79-9.41-11.37-13.73
UFCF 28.48-5.5859.2545.41-158.30127.6422.4827.1532.7939.60
WACC
PV UFCF 119.5219.7122.2925.2128.51
SUM PV UFCF 215.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.79
Free cash flow (t + 1) 40.39
Terminal Value 843.18
Present Value of Terminal Value 607.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 822.36
Net Debt 562.83
Equity Value 259.53
Shares Outstanding 21.60
Equity Value Per Share 12.01