Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Hudson Technologies, Inc. (HDSN)
$7.41
-0.10 (-1.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 140.38 | 166.53 | 162.06 | 147.60 | 192.75 | 210.87 | 230.70 | 252.38 | 276.11 | 302.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 18.54 | -35.48 | 0.74 | 13.03 | 50.95 | 11.65 | 12.75 | 13.95 | 15.26 | 16.69 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 15.16 | -42.61 | -6.37 | 6.94 | 44.77 | 3.88 | 4.25 | 4.65 | 5.09 | 5.56 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 3.38 | 7.13 | 7.12 | 6.10 | 6.18 | 7.77 | 8.50 | 9.30 | 10.17 | 11.13 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 5 | 2.27 | 2.60 | 1.35 | 3.49 | 3.90 | 4.27 | 4.67 | 5.11 | 5.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 24.50 | 14.06 | 8.06 | 9.81 | 14.22 | 18.93 | 20.71 | 22.66 | 24.79 | 27.12 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 172.49 | 101.96 | 59.24 | 44.46 | 94.14 | 126.36 | 138.24 | 151.24 | 165.46 | 181.01 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 10.89 | 8.67 | 10.27 | 7.64 | 9.62 | 12.43 | 13.60 | 14.88 | 16.28 | 17.81 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.02 | -1.09 | -1.01 | -1.47 | -1.92 | -1.69 | -1.85 | -2.02 | -2.21 | -2.42 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.41 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.174 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 42.71 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 3.41 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 10.96% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.431 |
| Total Debt | 100.27 |
| Total Equity | 316.48 |
| Total Capital | 416.75 |
| Debt Weighting | 24.06 |
| Equity Weighting | 75.94 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 140.38 | 166.53 | 162.06 | 147.60 | 192.75 | 210.87 | 230.70 | 252.38 | 276.11 | 302.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 18.54 | -35.48 | 0.74 | 13.03 | 50.95 | 11.65 | 12.75 | 13.95 | 15.26 | 16.69 |
| EBIT | 15.16 | -42.61 | -6.37 | 6.94 | 44.77 | 3.88 | 4.25 | 4.65 | 5.09 | 5.56 |
| Tax Rate | 7.06% | 2.97% | -2.59% | 3.43% | 3.41% | 2.86% | 2.86% | 2.86% | 2.86% | 2.86% |
| EBIAT | 14.09 | -41.34 | -6.54 | 6.70 | 43.25 | 3.77 | 4.13 | 4.52 | 4.94 | 5.41 |
| Depreciation | 3.38 | 7.13 | 7.12 | 6.10 | 6.18 | 7.77 | 8.50 | 9.30 | 10.17 | 11.13 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 10.43 | 6 | -1.75 | -4.42 | -4.71 | -1.78 | -1.95 | -2.13 | -2.33 |
| Inventories | - | 70.52 | 42.72 | 14.78 | -49.68 | -32.22 | -11.88 | -13 | -14.22 | -15.56 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -2.21 | 1.60 | -2.63 | 1.98 | 2.81 | 1.17 | 1.28 | 1.40 | 1.53 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.02 | -1.09 | -1.01 | -1.47 | -1.92 | -1.69 | -1.85 | -2.02 | -2.21 | -2.42 |
| UFCF | 16.45 | 43.44 | 49.90 | 21.73 | -4.62 | -24.27 | -1.71 | -1.87 | -2.05 | -2.24 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -22.25 | -1.44 | -1.44 | -1.45 | -1.45 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -28.04 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.04 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -2.29 |
| Terminal Value | -32.48 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -21.07 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -49.11 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 96.78 |
| Equity Value | -145.89 |
| Shares Outstanding | 42.71 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -3.42 |