Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Heineken Holding N.V. (HEIO.AS)

72.55 €

+2.45 (+3.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 23.92 | 72.55 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 21,88822,47123,96919,71521,94122,098.5922,257.3022,417.1622,578.1722,740.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,8343,9524,5303,5484,9104,171.224,201.184,231.364,261.754,292.36
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,2472,2592,5716742,9512,117.652,132.862,148.182,163.602,179.14
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,5871,6931,9592,8741,9592,053.582,068.332,083.182,098.142,113.21
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2,4422,9031,8214,0003,2482,950.842,972.042,993.383,014.883,036.54
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,8141,9202,2131,9582,4382,082.042,096.992,112.052,127.222,142.50
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,4304,0164,7203,6634,6314,106.854,136.354,166.054,195.984,226.11
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,833-2,055-2,101-1,640-1,597-1,851.08-1,864.37-1,877.76-1,891.25-1,904.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 72.55
Beta 0.743
Diluted Shares Outstanding 288.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 61.63
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.124
Total Debt 16,873
Total Equity 20,896.59
Total Capital 37,769.59
Debt Weighting 44.67
Equity Weighting 55.33
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 21,88822,47123,96919,71521,94122,098.5922,257.3022,417.1622,578.1722,740.33
EBITDA 3,8343,9524,5303,5484,9104,171.224,201.184,231.364,261.754,292.36
EBIT 2,2472,2592,5716742,9512,117.652,132.862,148.182,163.602,179.14
Tax Rate 66.40%66.30%66.90%164.97%61.63%85.24%85.24%85.24%85.24%85.24%
EBIAT 754.92761.18851-437.891,132.33312.55314.79317.05319.33321.62
Depreciation 1,5871,6931,9592,8741,9592,053.582,068.332,083.182,098.142,113.21
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --106-293255-480355.96-14.95-15.06-15.17-15.28
Accounts Payable -586704-1,057968-524.1529.5029.7129.9230.14
Capital Expenditure -1,833-2,055-2,101-1,640-1,597-1,851.08-1,864.37-1,877.76-1,891.25-1,904.83
UFCF 508.92879.181,120-5.891,982.33346.86533.29537.12540.98544.86
WACC
PV UFCF 332.11488.91471.49454.69438.48
SUM PV UFCF 2,185.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.44
Free cash flow (t + 1) 555.76
Terminal Value 22,777.01
Present Value of Terminal Value 18,330

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 20,515.68
Net Debt 13,625
Equity Value 6,890.68
Shares Outstanding 288.03
Equity Value Per Share 23.92